On the distribution of discounted loss reserves using generalized linear models

Renshaw and Verrall [] specified the generalized linear model (GLM) underlying the chain-ladder technique and suggested some other GLMs which might be useful in claims reserving. The purpose of this paper is to construct bounds for the discounted loss reserve within the framework of GLMs. Exact calculation of the distribution of the total reserve is not feasible, and hence the determination of lower and upper bounds with a simpler structure is a possible way out. The paper ends with numerical examples illustrating the usefulness of the presented approximations.     

Modeling politicians' preferences for road pricing policies: A regret-based and utilitarian perspective

This paper presents the results of a stated choice-study among Dutch local politicians in the context of road pricing policies. Politicians were asked to express their preferences for policy-options that differed in terms of (i) emissions reduction, (ii) congestion reduction, (iii) operational costs, (iv) acceptability among the general public and (v) acceptability among retailers. Utility-maximization-based and regret-minimization-based discrete choice models were estimated, and their results compared, on 238 stated choices made by members of Dutch city-councils. The estimated models allow for the evaluation of the popularity of different road pricing scenarios among Dutch local politicians, as a function of their performance in terms of the above-mentioned criteria.     

Estimation of expected return: CAPM vs. Fama and French

Most practitioners favour a one-factor model (CAPM) when estimating expected return for an individual stock. For estimation of portfolio returns, academics recommend the Fama and French three-factor model. The main objective of this paper is to compare the performance of these two models for individual stocks. First, estimates for individual stock returns based on CAPM are obtained using different time frames, data frequencies, and indexes. It is found that 5 years of monthly data and an equal-weighted index, as opposed to the commonly recommended value-weighted index, provide the best estimate. However, performance of the model is very poor; it explains on average 3% of differences in returns. Then, estimates for individual stock returns are obtained based on the Fama and French model using 5 years of monthly data. This model, however, does not do much better; independent of the index used, it explains on average 5% of differences in returns. These results therefore bring into question the use of either model for estimation of individual expected stock returns.     

Catching-up of East German Labour Productivity in the 1990s

We provide empirical evidence for exogenous and endogenous catching-up of East German labour productivity to West German levels. We argue that labour productivity in East Germany has caught up faster than has happened elsewhere. The sudden formation of the German Monetary Union was followed by large transfers to East Germany, migration of workers to West Germany, reorganization and privatization of East German firms. This has quickly led to a partial closing of the organizational, idea and object gaps that existed between East and West Germany. This paper analyses labour productivity in East and West Germany using both aggregate German data and unbalanced panel analysis of developments in East and West Germany. Factors affecting the organization of production, and especially privatization and 'foreign' firms, are found to be particularly important in this context.     

Adverse Selection in the Annuities Market and the Impact of Privatizing Social Security

The observation that few Americans purchase life annuities has often been attributed to adverse selection. A still unanswered question is whether observable price increases caused by adverse selection can be generated endogenously in a life cycle model. This paper calibrates a pure life cycle model for a characteristic US cohort and reproduces three stylized facts. Adverse selection increases annuity prices by 7–10 percent; the cost of adverse selection rises with the age of the annuitant; and the cost is smaller for females than for males. Social security privatization could reduce annuity prices by between 2 and 3 percent.     

Child Mortality: Is Aid Fungibility in Pro-Poor Expenditure Sectors Decisive?

If development assistance targeted at specific sectors is not used as intended, aid is said to be fungible. Using country-specific estimates of the degree of aid fungibility in “pro-poor” government expenditure sectors, I assess the effect on child mortality. Results indicate that fungibility within these sectors does not help to explain differences in mortality. However, when separating the sample into democracies and non-democracies, results suggest that pro-poor expenditures influence mortality in non-democracies only and that aid treated as fungible tends to be used efficiently in democracies. JEL no. F35, O11, O23     

Convergence in European GDP series: a multivariate common converging trend–cycle decomposition

Convergence in the gross domestic product series of five European countries is empirically identified using multivariate time series models that are based on unobserved components with dynamic converging properties. We define convergence in terms of a decrease in dispersion over time and model this decrease via mechanisms that allow for gradual reductions in the ranks of covariance matrices associated with the disturbance vectors driving the unobserved components of the model. The inclusion of such convergence mechanisms within the formulation of unobserved components makes the identification of various types of convergence possible. The common converging component model is estimated for the per capita gross domestic product of five European countries: Germany, France, Italy, Spain and the Netherlands. It is found that convergence features in trends and cycles are present and are associated with some key events in the history of European integration. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Do Workers in Africa Get a Wage Premium if Employed in Firms Owned by Foreigners?

Do firms owned by foreigners pay higher wages than locally ownedfirms for apparently equivalent workers? Do such benefits accrueto all or only certain types of workers? This paper uses dataon individual wages in manufacturing industry for five Africancountries in the early 1990s to address these questions. Wepresent two main findings. First, foreign ownership is associatedwith a 20–40% increase in individual wages (conditionalon age, tenure and education) on average. This is halved to8–23% if we take into account the fact that foreign-ownedfirms are larger and locate in high-wage sectors and regions.Secondly, there is a tendency in some countries for more skilledworkers (using occupation and education categories) to benefitmore from foreign ownership than less skilled workers and thisconclusion holds after accounting for the size distributionof foreign firms. We discuss, but cannot directly test, theplausibility of two explanations for these findings: (i) foreign-ownedfirms employ technologies that are more skill-biased than technologiesin local firms and (ii) skilled workers in foreign firms aremore effective in rent-sharing than other workers. We contendthat these explanations may not be mutually exclusive and, hence,cannot be empirically distinguished.     

Agricultural Chemical Residues as a Source of Risk

Exposures to individual agricultural chemical residues are a relatively small source of risk across selected environmental and human health end points; nutrients in water, of which agricultural uses are only one source, may be an exception. This may explain recent policy decisions to tighten regulation of nutrients in water resources. However, uncertainty about nutrient damages hinders design of an efficient policy to deal with nutrients.