A Multilevel Multinomial Analysis of Interviewer Effects on Various Components of Unit Nonresponse

This note demonstrates an application of a multilevel multinomial model. We use that model to analyse interviewer effects on various components of unit nonresponse to a face-to-face survey: refusals and noncontacts. The model allows for an analysis of these two interviewer effects and a possible connection between both at the same time. Our results show that both the chances for refusals as for noncontacts are subject to interviewer effects. We also find some evidence for a relation between both interviewer effects: interviewers who obtain more refusals are also more likely to report noncontacts. That result is however at least partly dependent on an outlier, an interviewer with a high number of refusals and noncontacts.     

Measuring volatility with the realized range

Realized variance, being the summation of squared intra-day returns, has quickly gained popularity as a measure of daily volatility. Following Parkinson [1980. The extreme value method for estimating the variance of the rate of return. Journal of Business 53, 61–65] we replace each squared intra-day return by the high–low range for that period to create a novel and more efficient estimator called the realized range. In addition, we suggest a bias-correction procedure to account for the effects of microstructure frictions based upon scaling the realized range with the average level of the daily range. Simulation experiments demonstrate that for plausible levels of non-trading and bid–ask bounce the realized range has a lower mean-squared error than the realized variance, including variants thereof that are robust to microstructure noise. Empirical analysis of the S&P500 index-futures and the S&P100 constituents confirms the potential of the realized range.     

Rationing in open economy and dynamic macroeconomics: A survey

Summary A survey of rationing in micro theories of macroeconomics is presented. The survey starts with a closed economy with money and inventories, which consists of a representative household, a firm and government. After a discussion of the notional demands and supplies and the properties of the Walrasian equilibrium, a discussion of the effective demands and supplies leads to an analysis of the four regimes (Keynesian unemployment, classical unemployment, repressed inflation and underconsumption). A fiscal and monetary contraction decreases sales and employment when there is Keynesian unemployment, but is expansionary (neutral) when there is repressed inflation (classical unemployment). The survey continues with an analysis of the effects of rationing in a small open economy. It considers the one-sector model and a model with a traded and a nontraded sector. The latter model is used to discuss the effects of an oil discovery on the Gulf countries and on Latin American countries. The survey ends with a discussion of rationing in dynamic economies, which leads to an analysis of the effects of expectations about future constraints on current regimes and to a discussion of boot-strap equilibria.The author is Director of the Network for Quantitative Economics. This paper is a brief and eclectic survey of rationing models of closed one-period and two-period economies and of small open economies. It contains no significant new material. The author is grateful to Professor Theo van de Klundert for his constructive comments on an earlier version of this survey.     

Income distribution,economic structure and employment in South Africa

This paper discusses the impact of a redistribution of current income from the White to the Black population on the distribution of sectoral output, and total employment by means of a semi‐closed input‐output model.

The results show that a redistribution of current income towards Black households — which no doubt will have positive social and political repercussions — has a non‐negative effect on GDP and a definite positive effect on the performance of sectors with a high private consumption expenditure component, as well as on total employment.     

The effect of interstate highway on driving times and regional shopping center drawing power

Previous studies of the driving times of shopping center patrons have not examined the effect of limited access highways. This study analyzed the impact of interstate highways on the driving times of 204 shoppers at three medium-sized regional shopping centers. Those shoppers indicating usage of interstate highways to reach their shopping destinations were significantly more likely to incur travel times greater than fifteen and twenty minutes than those not using the available interstate roads. In predicting the drawing power of these shopping centers, factors besides mass were found to be useful. These include square footage of shopping goods, stores, and number of parking places.     

Debt Relief and Economic Growth in Mexico

Could external restraint and internal balance in Mexico havebeen reconciled at levels of savings and investment that allowedsatisfactory growth in output without the 1989–90 restructuringof debt? What are the likely implications of Mexico's "Bradydeal" on economic growth? What are the macroeconomic effectsof debt-equity swaps? This article develops and estimates amodel to address these issues. The analysis concludes that the1989–90 agreement in Mexico will contribute materiallyto macroeconomic stability and the restoration of economic growth.     

The Ju/'hoan Bushman Development Foundation and basic needs in eastern Bushmanland,Namibia

The Ju/'hoan Bushman Development Foundation (JBDF) is a multi‐dimensional development foundation which has as its main objective the raising of the standard of living of the indigenous Ju/'hoan Bushmen in eastern Bushmanland, Namibia. It has a basic needs approach to development.

The development activities of the Foundation started in 1981. The Nyae Nyae Farmers’ Cooperative, through which the Foundation now directs its development activities, was established in 1986. It is funded by various international development agencies, such as Christian Aid, NORAD, SIDA, Bread for the World, Oxfam Canada, and the EEC.

The basic needs approach of the Foundation addresses the following dimensions: water, food, cash, clothing, health, literacy and education, community esteem, and problems and propositions.     

The role of extension in the development of the farmer as entrepreneur

Different viewpoints were expressed at the 1990 annual national conference of the South African Society for Agricultural Extension regarding the role of extension in the development of the farmer as entrepreneur. It is expected that public funding will increasingly be limited to functions of general public interest. To achieve independence farmers should be willing to expose themselves to entrepreneur development stimuli. it is in the public interest to develop scarce human, economic and natural resources. Research findings indicate distinct behavioral differences between entrepreneurs of differing perceptions. A comprehensive interdisciplinary education is recommended for agriculturalists. Because needs change, education programmes must be re‐evaluated from time to time. It serves little purpose to educate people in extension who do not have a technical message to communicate. The state extension service seeks closer cooperation and liaison with agricultural co‐operative and private sector know‐how. Departmental policy will probably be less rigid in future.

A clear distinction should be made between information and extension services. The adoption of an ethical code for extensionists may be opportune. Relevancy is an important contributing factor to extensionist credibility.     

Inflation, investment and economic performance: The role of internal financing

This paper studies a link between inflation and economic activity that is built on two hypotheses. First, firms mitigate informational frictions in financial markets by accumulating retained earnings over a period of time. Second, firms allocate earnings among three competing uses - dividends, current investment, and the accumulation of internal funds - and inflation directly distorts this allocation decision as well as the real value of accumulated internal funds. The model predicts that the level of inflation - both unanticipated and expected inflation - as well as the variability of inflation distort firms’ internal financing decisions, increases frictions in financial markets, reduces the level and efficiency of investment, and reduces aggregate output. The marginal effects of inflation are increasing in the inflation rate.     

Regulating an Externality-Generating Utility Environmental Taxes Under Limited Information

Global warming is currently an important item on most nationalenvironmental agendas. In many countries, coal-fired electricity generatingstations represent an important source of greenhouse gases. We examinehow regulations to curb emissions affect public utility pricing regulationwhen regulators act non-cooperatively. We show that, when there is limitedinformation on fixed abatement costs, an environmental regulator prefersan emission tax over an output tax or a lump sum environmental tax. Thepublic utility regulator prefers the lump sum tax regime.