Dynamic forecasting of monetary exchange rate models: Evidence from cointegration

The Frenkel-Bilson and Dornbusch-Frankel monetary exchange rate models are used to estimate the out-of-sample forecasting performance for the U.S. dollar/Canadian dollar exchange rate. By using Johansen's multivariate cointegration, up to three cointegrating vectors were found between the exchange rate and macroeconomic fundamentals. This means that there is a long-run relationship between the exchange rate and economic fundamentals. Based on error correction models, two monetary models outperform the random walk model at the three-, six-, and 12-month forecasting horizons. Therefore, monetary exchange rate models are still useful in forecasting exchange rates.     

Ubiquitous computing and its effects on small businesses

Much of the previous literature on ubiquitous computing (UbiComp) has been limited to case studies, reporting innovative practices of specific technologies (e.g., RFID) and social issues. There is a general paucity of research on strategic application of UbiComp, especially to small businesses. To address this issue, this study provides a broad overview of the current practices of UbiComp in leading countries and presents possible future directions. Then, the effects of UbiComp on small businesses are discussed. Through a cross-national comparative analysis, we present four strategies to provide some guidance to the countries that are currently considering entering into the UbiComp race.     

HOME MARKET EFFECTS IN THE CHAMBERLINIAN–RICARDIAN WORLD

According to conventional home market effects, free trade tends to shrink the market share for a smaller economy in differentiated manufacturing goods, and in the extreme, leads to a complete hollowing out of the industry. Departing from the original Helpman–Krugman modelling assumptions behind the home market effects, we introduce a technology advantage in terms of the difference in fixed cost and/or marginal cost between trading partners and prove that home market effects will be offset and even reverse if a small economy has better technology than another country. With a higher elasticity of substitution, the marginal cost advantage becomes more important if it is to dominate the home market effect. We also show that even with an identical country size, the intra‐industry trade addressed in the existing literature may not occur; it will occur only if the technology differential lies within a certain range that is positively affected by the level of transport cost.     

On the informationization of accounting information in China： The perspective of accounting information systems and its regulatory framework in the USA

The informationization of accounting information systems has brought many improvements to those systems. This paper highlights some of those significant advances in the informationization of accounting information systems in China. As China has become a major industrial power in the international economy, further improvements for these information systems are critical to the continued successes of China. To additionally improve these systems, China can draw upon the systems from other world economic leaders. With its fully developed capital markets, the United States offers development experience for the external reporting components of a fully integrated information system. This paper discusses a typical integrated information system in the United States and addresses the regulatory milestones that were instrumental in the development of those external components of accounting information systems. Recommendations are presented for improving informationization of systems in China based on U.S. systems＇ responses to those milestones.     

The Method of Purging Applied to Repeated Cross-Sectional Data

In cross-sectional survey research, it is quite common to estimate the(standardized) effect of independent variable(s) on a dependent variable. However, if repeated cross-sectional data are available, much is to be gained if the consequences of these effects on longitudinal social change are considered.To assess these consequences, we describe a type of simulation in whichlongitudinal shifts in the independent variable's distribution, and longitudinal variation in effect on the dependent variable are `purged' from the data. Although the method of purging is known for many years, we add new practical features by relating the method to logistic and linear regression analysis. Because both logistic and linear regression analysis can be found in all majorstatistical packages, the method of purging is made available to a wider group of social scientists. With the use of repeated cross-sectional data, gathered in the Netherlands between 1970 and 1998, the new practical features of the purging method are shown, using the SPSS package.     

The demand for money in korea: Evidence from the cointegration test

This paper shows that there exists a long-run equilibrium relationship between M2 and its determinants, real income and the long-term interest rate, in Korea by using Johansen and Juselius maximum likelihood cointegration method. However, M1 does not have any meaningful cointegration relationships with its determinants. The long-term interest rate is a better proxy than the short-term rate to measure the opportunity cost of holding money. Based on the results, a broad definition of money is a better measure than a narrow definition of money in considering the long-run economic impacts of changes in monetary policy in Korea.     

Imported Technology and R&D in the Taiwanese Electronic Industry

The paper identifies the R&D status of the Taiwanese electronics industry by employing a bivariate probit selectivity model to examine the relationship between imports of technology and inhouse R&D at the firm level. A complementary relationship between imported technology and inhouse R&D is observed, which implies that imported technology does not inhibit inhouse R&D in the Taiwanese electronic industry. However, technology-importing enterprises have a higher average level of R&D expenditure than nonimporting ones, indicating that the R&D conducted in the industry is dominated by the adaptive R&D of the technology-importing enterprises.     

Optimal Tariffs with Endogenous Production Location

This paper attempts to examine how the inclusion of economic space affects trade policies and to make a comparison between optimal tariffs with endogenous location and those with exogenous location. In particular, it is shown that the output effect of a tariff change with endogenous location is greater than that with exogenous location if the production function is non-CRS. Moreover, when the production function is CRS (resp. not CRS), the optimal tariff under endogenous location is the same as (lower than) the one under exogenous location.     

试论政府在经济转型和改革过程中的作用——中、俄、印三国之比较分析

经济改革和转型过程中,政府应该发挥怎样的作用,是学界和决策层多年来一直特别关注的问题。与改革或转型的策略及路径相联系,有关政府职能的讨论可以大致分为以下三类观点:亲善市场论、国家推动发展论和市场增进论。中国、俄罗斯和印度三个国家在改革的初始条件、改革方式及改革进程上既有相似之处,又有完全不同的地方,但这三国都经历了并且仍在继续着经济体制改革和转型,而且三国的经济改革和转型到目前为止都取得了一定成就,三国的经济发展前景也为世界所看好。本文对亲善市场论、国家推动发展论和市场增进论进行了分析比较,考察了中国、俄罗斯及印度改革过程中政府作用的得失,论证了政府在经济改革和发展进程中具有异乎寻常的关键性作用,它是改革和发展的核心内容之一,决定了改革和发展能否顺利地、“帕累托改进式”地向前进行。