Bootstrap refinements in tests of microstructure frictions

Bootstrapping is often used as a substitute for asymptotic distributions when the latter are not available. Recent developments in the theory of the bootstrap show that combining the bootstrap with a known asymptotic distribution yields inferences that improve on those drawn from asymptotic distribution theory or bootstrapping alone. We review the key to obtaining the improvement and compare asymptotic and bootstrap inferences of three variance ratio tests used in microstructure research. The more precise bootstrap inferences lead to conclusions that differ from those found in extant research on transitory volatility. Asymptotic tests are biased toward rejection, and bootstrap and asymptotic critical values are not generally close to each other. These findings suggest that the more precise bootstrap inferences should be used in future applications of these tests, as well as in various other empirical applications where intradaily or other high frequency data are modeled using vector autoregressions     

Energy consumption, CO2 emissions, and economic growth: evidence from Indonesia

Energy policy-makers in Indonesia are interested in the causal relationship between energy consumption, CO₂ emissions, and economic growth. Therefore, this paper attempts to analyze the short- and long-run causality issues between energy consumption, CO₂ emissions, and economic growth in Indonesia using time-series techniques. To this end, annual data covering the period 1965–2006 are employed and tests for unit roots, co-integration, and Granger-causality based on an error-correction model are applied. The results show that there is a bi-directional causality between energy consumption and CO₂ emissions. This means that an increase in energy consumption directly affects CO₂ emissions and that CO₂ emissions also stimulate further energy consumption. In addition, the results support the occurrence of uni-directional causality running from economic growth to energy consumption and to CO₂ emissions without any feedback effects. Thus, energy conservation and/or CO₂ emissions reduction policies can be initiated without the consequent destructive economic side effects.     

Causal relationship between energy consumption and GDP growth revisited: A dynamic panel data approach

This paper uses the panel data of energy consumption and GDP for 82 countries from 1972 to 2002. Based on the income levels defined by the World Bank, the data are divided into four categories: low income group, lower middle income group, upper middle income group, and high income group. We employ the GMM-SYS approach for the estimation of the panel VAR model in each of the four groups. Afterwards, the causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth is tested and ascertained. We discover: (a) in the low income group, there exists no causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth; (b) in the middle income groups (lower and upper middle income groups), economic growth leads energy consumption positively; (c) in the high income group countries, economic growth leads energy consumption negatively. After further in-depth analysis of energy related data, the results indicate that, in the high income group, there is a great environmental improvement as a result of more efficient energy use and reduction in the release of CO₂. However, in the upper middle income group countries, after the energy crisis, the energy efficiency declines and the release of CO₂ rises. Since there is no evidence indicating that energy consumption leads economic growth in any of the four income groups, a stronger energy conservation policy should be pursued in all countries.     

Identification of effective opinion leaders in the diffusion of technological innovation: A social network approach

Opinion leaders are the people in a social network who have the greatest influence on other people's acknowledgment or adoption of products/services in the diffusion process of technological innovation. In this research, we investigate which opinion leader is the best marketing choice in terms of diffusion speed and maximum cumulative number of adopters, using a social network approach and threshold model. On the basis of the simulation result, we find that opinion leaders with high sociality are the best ones for fast diffusion, whereas those with high distance centrality are the best ones for the maximum cumulative number of adopters. Moreover, we conclude that the characteristics of effective opinion leaders selected as initial adopters could vary depending on the characteristics of the social network and type of innovation. Finally, we find that opinion leaders affect the diffusion process only when the percentage of initial adopters reaches a critical mass.     

FDI and Outsourcing in a Service Industry: Welfare Effects of Liberalising Trade and Investment

This study examines a foreign firm's entry decision and its effects on the host country's welfare in a model with a composite good in which both commodity and service generate utility for consumers. Along with the commodity it produces, a producer can provide the service by itself or outsource the service. The result shows that the incentive for foreign direct investment (FDI) in the service sector increases under liberalising trade in the final‐good market. Moreover, there exist policy combinations of trade and investment liberalisation, whereby the domestic firms' profitability is traded off with the host country's social welfare when the foreign firm provides a service through FDI or through outsourcing, respectively. Finally, the welfare after simultaneously liberalising trade and investment is not necessarily greater than that under autarky.     

A robust asymptotically optimal sequential estimation procedure for the Poisson process

The problem of estimating sequentially the intensity parameter of a homogeneous Poisson process with quadratic loss and fixed cost per unit time is considered within the Bayesian framework. Without using both the prior information and any auxiliary data, this paper proposes a sequential procedure as that suggested by Vardi (Ann Statist 7:1040?C1051, 1979) in classical non-Bayesian sequential estimation. The proposed sequential procedure is robust in the sense that it does not depend on the prior. The second order approximations to the expected sample size and the Bayes risk of the proposed sequential procedure are established for a large class of prior distributions.     

Socio-economic impact of the mHealth adoption in managing diabetes

The increasing prevalence of prediabetes and diabetes has become a serious problem in Korea. This study aims to compare the effects of various policy options for mHealth proliferation for managing and preventing diabetes. To this end, we simulate the plausible possibility of mHealth using system dynamics modelling. There are several important findings of this study that are helpful to policy makers’ decisions. First, innovative healthcare delivery through mHealth has a positive influence on health to significantly reduce prediabetes and diabetes. Moreover, the gap between the healthcare system with and without mHealth increases over time. Second, the effectiveness of mHealth adoption depends on the timing of implementation of institutional reforms. Finally, mHealth adoption can stimulate national economic growth as the demand for a new healthcare system rises.     

Strong reciprocity and team production: Theory and evidence

Punishment of shirkers is often an effective means of attenuating incentive problems and sustaining coordination in work teams. Explanations of the motivation to punish generally rely either on small group size or on a Folk theorem that requires coordinated punishment and, hence, highly accurate information concerning the behavior of each player. We provide a model of team production in which the punishment of shirkers depends on strong reciprocity: the willingness of some team members to contribute altruistically to a joint project and also to bear costs in order to discipline fellow members who do not contribute. This alternative does not require small group size, complex coordinated punishing activities, or implausible informational assumptions. An experimental public goods game provides evidence for the behavioral relevance of strong reciprocity and how it differs from unconditional altruism.     

Optimal Trade Policy under Homogeneous Bertrand Competition*

In a seminal paper, Eaton and Grossman (1986) conclude that an export tax is optimal if firms produce heterogeneous products and engage in Bertrand price competition. In particular, they made a comment that could be interpreted to mean that even in the case of a homogeneous product, the optimal policy is still an export tax. This paper has re‐examined the case and found that the optimal export policy can be an export subsidy, free trade, or an export tax, depending on the marginal cost differential between the domestic and the foreign firms. Moreover, if government intervention entails a cost, free trade becomes the only optimal policy.