The impact of risk and uncertainty on expected returns

We study asset pricing in economies featuring both risk and uncertainty. In our empirical analysis, we measure risk via return volatility and uncertainty via the degree of disagreement of professional forecasters, attributing different weights to each forecaster. We empirically model the typical risk-return trade-off and augment these models with our measure of uncertainty. We find stronger empirical evidence for an uncertainty-return trade-off than for the traditional risk-return trade-off. Finally, we investigate the performance of a two-factor model with risk and uncertainty in the cross section.     

Transitional Progress and Business Challenges

Eight Central European and Baltic countries have joined the European Union in May 2004. Transitioning economies need to develop a business environment with a healthy financial sector to realize economic growth. This paper uses two classification methods, the discriminant analysis and taxonomic measure, to investigate the possibility of the South Eastern European and Commonwealth of Independent transitional countries to develop an enterprise and business environment that is compatible with the newest European Union (EU8) members. This paper found that the EU8 countries are correctly classified as having transitioned successfully in their business development. Bulgaria and Croatia have transitioned closely to the EU8. However, Romania, Ukraine, and the Commonwealth of Independent countries are not close to the EU8 in achieving a compatible business environment.      

Rural tourism — meeting the challenges of the new South Africa

Rural tourism in South Africa has undergone fundamental change since the advent of political democracy in 1995. Previously perceived as a ‘white man's thing’, rural tourism is increasingly finding a home amongst South Africa's formerly marginalised rural communities. The country has considerable potential in attracting tourists in search of new, exciting experiences in areas of unexploited natural beauty and rich cultural resources. The concept of rural tourism has mushroomed to include adventure tourism activities, cultural tourism and, lately, a new phenomenon in rural communities known as ‘township tourism’. There are, however, substantial challenges to be overcome if the rural tourism sector is to achieve its goals. These include a lack of capacity at local government level, the difficulties involved in operationalising community‐based rural tourism and the dearth of entrepreneurial expertise, management skills and capital with which to expand the rural tourism infrastructure. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Information Uncertainty and Post-Earnings-Announcement-Drift

Abstract:  We examine whether rational investor responses to information uncertainty (IU) explain properties of and returns to the post-earnings-announcement-drift (PEAD) trading anomaly. Consistent with a rational learning explanation, we find that: (1) unexpected earnings (UE) signals that are characterized as having greater IU have more muted initial market reactions; (2) extreme UE portfolios are characterized by securities with higher IU than non-extreme UE portfolios; and (3) within the extreme UE portfolios, high IU securities are more prevalent and earn larger abnormal returns than low IU securities. Further tests show that prior evidence of greater PEAD profitability for higher idiosyncratic volatility securities is explained by the greater information uncertainty associated with these securities.     

Equity Valuation Employing the Ideal versus Ad Hoc Terminal Value Expressions*

Recently, Penman and Sougiannis (1998) and Francis, Olsson, and Oswald (2000) compared the bias and accuracy of the discounted cash flow model (DCF) and Edwards‐Bell‐Ohlson residual income model (RIM) in explaining the relation between value estimates and observed stock prices. Both studies report that, with non‐price‐based terminal values, RIM outperforms DCF. Our first research objective is to explore the question whether, over a five‐year valuation horizon, DCF and RIM are empirically equivalent when Penman's (1997) theoretically “ideal” terminal value expressions are employed in each model. Using Value Line terminal stock price forecasts at the horizon to proxy for such values, we find empirical support for the prediction of equivalence between these valuation models. Thus, the apparent superiority of RIM does not hold in a level playing field comparison. Our second research objective is to demonstrate that, within each class of the DCF and RIM valuation models, the model that employs Value Line forecasted price in the terminal value expression generates the lowest prediction errors, compared with models that employ non‐price‐based terminal values under arbitrary growth assumptions. The results indicate that, for both DCF and RIM, price‐based valuation models outperform the corresponding non‐price‐based models by a wide margin. These results imply that researchers should exercise care in interpreting findings from models using ad hoc terminal value expressions.     

The Relative and Incremental Explanatory Power of Earnings and Alternative (to Earnings) Performance Measures for Returns*

We analyze the ability of earnings and non‐earnings performance metrics to explain the variability in annual stock returns for industries where we identify, ex ante, an allegedly preferred (for valuation purposes) summary performance metric. We identify three industries where earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and cash from operations (CFO) are preferred, and three industries where specific non‐GAAP performance metrics are preferred. As a benchmark, we also examine the ability of EBITDA and CFO to explain returns for seven industries for which earnings is the preferred metric. Results for the benchmark earnings industries show that earnings dominates EBITDA and CFO in explaining returns. All other results are inconsistent with the view that perceptions of preferred metrics are reflected in actual aggregate investment behaviors.     

The ethics of sentencing white-collar criminals

The consistent sentencing of white collar criminals does not exist in today's judicial system. Guidelines for sentencing individuals and corporations have already been developed by the U.S. Sentencing Commission but have not yet been implemented in the courts. Pros and cons of the guidelines are given, as is the extent and form of sentencing deemed appropriate for the individual or corporation. The activities of the sentencing commission are depicted by a timeline. Phillip W. Balsmeier is a professor of Management at Nicholls State University in Thibodaux, LA. He has published in Industrial Managementand the Journal of Small Business Management.Jennifer Kelly is a Master of Business Administration student at Nicholls State University. She is a graduate assistant in the President's office at the University.     

Female directors and impression management in sustainability reporting

This study proposes a new research approach to examine the relationship between board diversity, in terms of gender differences, and the quality of sustainability reporting, measured by several aspects: balance, conciseness, clarity, comparability and reliability of information. In addition, this study examines the moderating role that institutional factors exert on this relationship through the stakeholder orientation of the country of origin. The research questions are examined using an international sample of 273 firm-year observations from 2006 to 2014, applying several regression models for panel data. Our evidence is consistent with the existence of positive externalities associated with the presence of women in supervisory and senior management positions. That is, we evidence how boards with greater female representation decrease the risk of impression management strategies on sustainability disclosure. Female directors are positively associated with more balanced, comparable and reliable information; although, they are also associated with less precise and clear information, given their narrative character. Moreover, evidence reports that these effects are greater in firms located in more stakeholder-oriented countries. Results are robust for alternative gender diversity measures.