The Effects of Uncertainty on Market Prices: Evidence from Coaching Changes in the NBA

Abstract:  This study examines the effects of uncertainty on market prices. Specifically, we use the National Basketball Association betting market to examine whether uncertainty resulting from midseason coaching changes affects the ability of bettors to accurately set betting lines. We find that uncertainty amid midseason coaching changes results in less accurate pricing, as evidenced by higher volatility and greater overall inaccuracy in betting lines. We also find that uncertainty regarding the ability of the replacement coach and/or his strategies results in less accurate pricing, again evidenced by higher volatility and greater overall inaccuracy in betting lines.     

IMPACT OF DIVIDEND‐PROTECTED EMPLOYEE STOCK OPTIONS ON PAYOUT POLICIES: EVIDENCE FROM TAIWAN

Abstract. This study used a sample of 1035 Taiwanese firms to examine the impact of dividend protected employee stock options on stock repurchase and cash dividend policies from 2000 to 2005. This study finds a positive relationship between cash dividends and executive options, implying that executives holding stock options might prefer to distribute cash dividends to boost the stock price. This result, unlike in earlier studies, arises from the dividend protected characteristic of Taiwanese employee stock options. Finally, free cash flow, firm profitability, level of debt, investment opportunities and firm size are found to considerably influence payout decisions.     

AN EVALUATION OF ALTERNATIVE APPROACHES TO MARKET SHARE ANALYSIS WITH APPLICATION TO THE KUWAITI POULTRY MARKET

Changes in exporter market shares in the Kuwaiti poultry import market over the period 1971–81 are analysed by three modelling procedures. Two traditional approaches, a first-order constant transition probability Markov model and a set of market share equations, are found to be of only limited use. As an alternative, a multinominal logit model of market share behaviour is estimated. The empirical results indicate that, in addition to relative price changes, domestic policy inducements for Brazilian and European Community exports are important in determining market share changes. A comparison of the explanatory abilities of the models suggests that the multinominal logit model is as least as good as traditional modelling alternatives with respect to econometric criteria. It is concluded that the multinominal logit model offers considerable promise as a tool for market share research.     

我国垃圾处理资源化、产业化之构想

简述了我国垃圾处理的现状，提出了实现我国垃圾处理资源化和产业化的设想，介绍了垃圾回收利用、堆肥处置、焚烧制能等资源化处理的途经和方法。     

Estimation of physical intensity models for default risk

The estimation of physical intensity processes in the context of default risk is investigated here. Using data from Moody's Corporate Bond Default Database, a term structure of default probabilities for different rating classes is constructed each year from 1970 to 2001. Two specifications used for modeling the dynamics of the (risk‐neutral) intensity process in the bond‐pricing literature are then examined empirically: the Ornstein–Uhlenbeck and square‐root cases. The results reveal that the Ornstein–Uhlenbeck case is not an adequate modeling alternative with a rejection of this specification in five out of seven credit classes and nonsignificant mean reverting behavior for all credit classes. The square‐root case obtains better results with four credit classes out of seven for which this specification cannot be rejected and significant mean reversion parameters in many cases. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 29:95–113, 2009     

Estimation of trade elasticities in the presence of trade barriers, multinationals and imperfect competition

Recent research highlights the role that multinational trading companies may play in impeding price transmission. In markets characterised by imperfect competition, an estimate of the partial elasticity of demand may be of limited practical value if no account is taken of the reaction of competitors. In this paper, we demonstrate the potential for market structure to affect price transmission and trade elasticities, and challenge the presumption that only government intervention can impact upon price transmission, with examples supporting why theory would suggest otherwise.     

Examining policy configurations as conditions for long-term unemployment and non-standard employment in OECD countries using fuzzy-set analysis

This paper investigates how particular configurations of institutional conditions cause high rate of long-term unemployment and non-standard employment rate for 18 OECD countries during the period of 2001–2008. The paper aims to investigate how employment protection legislation (EPL), unemployment benefit and statutory minimum wages are associated with long-term unemployment and non-standard employment. Using the fuzzy-set analysis, the paper examines how the combination of policies matters in causing long-term unemployment and/or non-standard employment. The result suggests that a low level of statutory minimum wage can lead to high levels of non-standard employment in combination with either strict EPL for permanent workers or weak EPLs for temporary workers. The long-term unemployment rate is suggested to be high when there is strict EPL for temporary workers in combination with high levels of statutory minimum wage. This paper highlights the importance of examining multiple policies as configuration.     

Offshoring Professional Services: Institutions and Professional Control

We examine the reasons why one might expect it to be more difficult to offshore professional work than manufacturing work in a globalized world. We then provide data on the variations in a specific case — the offshoring of diagnostic radiology from the USA, UK and Singapore. We show that existing theories on the ‘offshorability’ of jobs have not captured how national institutions and occupational regulations continue to define professional work. We then review the question of supply from India's perspective and report that both macro‐institutional and organizational contexts make it complicated for Indian doctors to supply much of this service.     

Market Segment Response Through Field Experimentation

A key assumption underlying segmentation studies is that marketing efforts have differential effects on market segments. This question was investigated in the context of a field experiment involving enlistment in the armed forces. Approximately 8000 completed questionnaires administered at various stages in the US Navy enlistment recruiting process were collected at two points in time, corresponding to a pre- and post-experimental intervention. Attitudinal data were analysed to identify meaningful segments. Differential responses of market segments to advertising and recruiter changes were found, providing direction for evaluation of, and changes in, the creative component of advertising.