中国茶产业现状及发展趋势分析

具有5 000年历史、历经兴衰而又绵延不断的中国茶产业如何得以发展,今后将如何发展值得关注和探讨。在WTO条件下,中国茶产业的经济活动受制于国内与国际两大环境,也取决于自身的优势和弱势。该文从茶产业构成要素及产业门类两方面分别分析评价了我国茶产业自身的优势、薄弱点,以及在WTO条件下所面临的外部环境机遇、威胁,最后,探讨了中国茶产业未来发展趋势。     

The economic law of population distribution and migration

"The economic law of population distribution and migration has been studied chiefly based on the Chinese situation. The distribution and development of productive forces decide the distribution and migration of population, and in turn, the latter influences the former. The population distributions in three different stages of social development, namely agricultural, industrial and information society, are described. A new concept in population economics is introduced, i.e. population economic density, which is different from the concept of population density. The formula of population economic density is P(population)/R(resources). Many kinds of migration are analysed, and it is believed that the main efficient cause of migration is economy."     

基于BP人工神经网络的小城镇生态规划研究——以梅河口市中和镇为例

试图将人工神经网络方法引入生态规划,采用BP(Back-Propagation)神经网络建立生态适宜度评价模型,并用于实际的生态适宜度分析中,从而为生态规划提供一种新的方法。对案例区梅河口市中和镇生态健康水平进行评价,结果显示:中和镇生态现状处于亚健康水平。从生态规划学理论和神经网络模型出发,以梅河口市中和镇实际调查数据为基础,利用MATLAB7.0软件建立生态适宜度分析模型。利用建立的评价模型对中和镇的生态适宜性进行评价。根据生态适宜性评价结果和生态健康水平提出中和镇生态区划方案。     

电子商务安全管理的现状及其对策

本文把电子商务的安全分为法制安全、信息技术安全和企业内部管理安全，并分析了电子商务安全的现状，最后给出了通过加强法制建设实现法制管理；通过认证和识别、安全协议、加密技术、防火墙、网络病毒防治等技术手段实现信息技术安全管理；通过健全企业内部管理制度实现企业内部安全管理的建议对策。     

边际效用递减规律的再发现

本文的成果主要体现在两个方面:第一,将时间维度导入效用函数,实现了对边际效用递减规律认识的一次真正的飞跃;第二,将需求在需求要素的层次上进行分解,使边际效用递减规律有了更为准确和牢靠的基础。在这两个成果的基础上,对效用的可测量性、商品的同质性假说等问题进生了前瞻性的探讨。     

International trade of GMO-related agricultural products

This paper examines the international trade of a variety of genetically modified (GM) food products over a 27-year period (1984–2011) with data from the United Nations using the tools of social network analysis. The results indicate that each of the different crops have a distinctive pattern of trade that has changed over time due to a number of different factors. Also, trade in agricultural commodities became more diversified over time, dominated less by the United States and other nations central in the trade networks and trade in the individual GM crops was stable over time. Countries maintained their trading partners for specific crops, despite the adoption of the genetically modified varieties. The economic implications of these results are discussed for specific countries.     

供应链延迟战略价值定量分析——蒙特卡罗下的奇异期权估价

对延迟战略建立两阶段决策模型,分半成品有无残值两种情况,从实物期权的视角运用金融学中期权定价理论对延迟战略的期权价值进行分析。将生产商传统生产方式下的收益类比为购买标的证券的收益,采用延迟战略的收益类比为标的于该证券的期权收益,并假设产品价格随机游走。通过分析发现延迟战略的收益相当于奇异期权的回报,并且半成品没有残值是存在残值的特殊情况。进一步运用蒙特卡罗模拟方法定量地对延迟战略的期权价值进行参数分析和成本一收益分析。文章将动态的风险管理和对灵活性价值的度量引入决策过程,研究结论能给延迟战略投资决策提供借鉴。     

An Estimation of the Intergenerational Income Elasticity of China

Abstract:

Using 1989–2006 waves of the China Health and Nutrition Survey data, we estimate the intergenerational income elasticity (IIE) of China. We find that the lower bound of the IIE is 0.491 using the son’s latest observed income and his father’s income averaged over three periods. We use the father’s number of years of education as an instrumental variable for his permanent income to derive the upper bound of the IIE, which is 0.556. We find that the intergenerational income mobility of rural China is higher than that in urban areas.     

论泛长三角区域旅游整合与协作

在旅游经济全球化、区域经济一体化的今天,打造世界级的旅游经济核心区域,已成为很多旅游发达国家的共识.泛长三角作为我国旅游发达的地区,必须要与世界接轨,在更大范围、更广领域与更高层次上参与国际竞争.本文在系统梳理区域旅游整合与协作内涵以及泛长三角区域旅游整合与协作的基础条件的情况下,提出泛长三角应从旅游资源、旅游产品、旅游线路与旅游市场等方面进行整合与协作,同时应建立政府、规划、人才与信息等方面的完善保障体系,以避免恶性竞争、重复建设与无序开发,实现泛长三角区域旅游可持续发展.     

基于双层规划模型的冷链物流网络多目标优化

针对冷链物流时效性强这一特性,应用软时间窗反映客户满意度,并结合T.T.T理论换算货损成本。在考虑满足客户时间窗的条件下,寻找配送中心建设及操作成本、车辆成本、惩罚成本及货损成本所构成的总成本最小时的最优配送方案,建立冷链物流配送选址及路径优化的双层规划模型,并将改进的遗传算法运用到该模型中,借助Matlab软件对具体实例进行求解,得到最优结果,为冷链物流网络多目标优化问题提供理论依据。