Dogs don't bark at parked cars

The following essay, by the Past President of the World Futures Studies Federation (WFSF), was presented as the Opening Keynote Address to the WFSF World Conference ‘Coherence and Chaos in our Uncommon Futures’, Turku, Finland, 23 August 1993.     

Patterns of morbidity in late medieval England: a sample from Westminster Abbey

A comparison between secular hospitals and monastic infirmaries introduces a discussion of the duration and seasonality of the illnesses of the monks of Westminster in two periods: 1297/8 to 1354/5 and 1381/2 to 1416/17. A change in the duration of illnesses is related to change in the conventions of treatment after the Black Death of 1348/9. The resemblance between the seasonal pattern of morbidity in this sample and that of mortality among male adults in the early modern period is discussed. It is suggested that the latter pattern may extend into the late middle ages.     

Gentlemanly Capitalism and Settler Capitalists: Imperialism, Dependent Development and Colonial Wealth in The South Island of New Zealand

This article engages with Cain and Hopkins' analysis of the British Empire, and the closely related literature of settler capitalism. For Cain and Hopkins, the Empire was dominated by gentlemanly rentiers, and the dominions were run by a dependent and collaborating elite. This paper rests in the first instance on a comprehensive analysis of wealthy settlers in the South Island of New Zealand. In noting that most settlers who became wealthy were not of gentlemanly origins, and that even those colonial financiers most closely tied to metropolitan capital pursued local agendas, it will suggest that the historiography under consideration needs to be balanced by a better understanding of the dynamic relationship between colonies and the metropolitan economy. The paper argues that settler capitalism is a model worth using, but that its utility will be greatly extended by a focus on settler capitalists as well as settler capitalism.     

‘LONG SLOW BOOM’?: MANUFACTURING IN NEW ZEALAND, 1945–70

Many studies of post-war New Zealand economy are highly critical both of economic policy and of the business sector, emphasising protection, complacency and sclerosis. This article argues that such accounts are excessively simplistic and, by analysing the structure and performance of New Zealand manufacturing during 1945–70, suggests that there was considerable innovation in both technological and organisational spheres. The result was that, to a greater extent than current accounts allow, New Zealand manufacturing pursued efficiency and international competitiveness.     

A Spatial Equilibrium Analysis of U.S.–Canadian Disputes on the World Softwood Lumber Market

This paper utilizes a world spatial equilibrium model to examine the effects of U.S.–Canadian softwood lumber disputes on U.S., Canadian, and other exporters' and importers' lumber markets. Results show that the U.S. import tariff on Canadian softwood lumber impacts prices, supply, demand and trade flows not only in the United States and Canada but also in the other countries. Though the goal of U.S. trade restriction is to limit imports from Canada and protect its producers, the United States cannot fully accomplish this goal as non-Canadian exporters fill the void left by the reduced imports from Canada. Canadian producers lose from the U.S. policy, but their loss is mitigated as Canada redirects its exports to other importers. Importing countries such as Japan and the European Union benefit from the U.S. trade restrictions as Canada seeks to sell its softwood lumber to these countries.     

Inferring strategies from observed actions: a nonparametric, binary tree classification approach

This paper introduces a non-parametric binary classification tree approach to inferring unobserved strategies from the observed actions of economic agents. The strategies are in the form of possibly nested if–then statements. We apply our approach to experimental data from the repeated ultimatum game, which was conducted in four different countries by Roth et al. (Am. Econ. Rev. 81 (1991) 1068). We find that strategy inference is consistent with existing inference, provides new explanations for subject behavior, and provides new empirically based hypotheses regarding ultimatum game strategies. We conclude that strategy inference is potentially useful as a complementary method of statistical inference in applied research.     

Minimum distance estimators for count data based on the probability generating function with applications

This paper studies properties of parameter estimators obtained by minimizing a distance between the empirical probability generating function and the probability generating function of a model for count data. Specifically, it is shown that, under certain not restrictive conditions, the resulting estimators are consistent and, suitably normalized, asymptotically normal. These properties hold even if the model is misspecified. Three applications of the obtained results are considered. First, we revisit the goodness-of-fit problem for count data and propose a weighted bootstrap estimator of the null distribution of test statistics based on the above cited distance. Second, we give a probability generating function version of the model selection test problem for separate, overlapping and nested families of distributions. Finally, we provide an application to the problem of testing for separate families of distributions. All applications are illustrated with numerical examples.