A theoretical framework to evaluate different margin‐setting methodologies

The margin system is the first line of defense against the default risk of a clearinghouse. From the perspectives of a clearinghouse, the utmost concern is to have a prudential system to control the default exposure. Once the level of prudentiality is set, the next concern will be the opportunity cost of the investors, because high opportunity cost discourages people from hedging futures, and thus defeats the function of a futures market. In this article, we first develop different measures of prudentiality and opportunity cost. We then formulate a statistical framework to evaluate different margin‐setting methodologies, all of which strike a balance between prudentiality and opportunity cost. Three margin‐setting methodologies, namely, (1) using simple moving averages; (2) using exponentially weighted moving averages; (3) using a GARCH approach, are applied to the Hang Seng Index futures. Keeping the same prudentiality level, it is shown that the one using a GARCH approach by and large gives the lowest average overcharge. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 24:117–145, 2004     

The index futures markets: Is screen trading more efficient?

This article uses a nonparametric test based on the arc‐sine law (see, e.g., Feller, 1965 ), which involves comparing the theoretical distribution implied by an intraday random walk with the empirical frequency distribution of the daily high/low times, in order to address the question of whether the abandonment of pit trading has been associated with greater market efficiency. If market inefficiencies result from flaws in the market microstructure of pit trading, they ought to have been eliminated by the introduction of screen trading. If, on the other hand, the inefficiencies are a reflection of investor psychology, they are likely to have survived, unaffected by the changeover. We focus here on four cases. Both the FTSE‐100 and CAC‐40 index futures contracts were originally traded by open outcry and have moved over to electronic trading in recent years, so that we are able to compare pricing behavior before and after the changeover. The equivalent contracts in Germany and Korea, on the other hand, have been traded electronically ever since their inception. Our results overwhelmingly reject the random‐walk hypothesis both for open‐outcry and electronic‐trading data sets, suggesting there has been no increase in efficiency as a result of the introduction of screen trading. One possible explanation consistent with our results would be that the index futures market is characterized by intraday overreaction. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 24:337–357, 2004     

An empirical analysis of the relationship between the hedge ratio and hedging horizon: A simultaneous estimation of the short‐ and long‐run hedge ratios

This article analyzes the effects of the length of hedging horizon on the optimal hedge ratio and hedging effectiveness using 9 different hedging horizons and 25 different commodities. We discuss the concept of short‐ and long‐run hedge ratios and propose a technique to simultaneously estimate them. The empirical results indicate that the short‐run hedge ratios are significantly less than 1 and increase with the length of hedging horizon. We also find that hedging effectiveness increases with the length of hedging horizon. However, the long‐run hedge ratio is found to be close to the naïve hedge ratio of unity. This implies that, if the hedging horizon is long, then the naïve hedge ratio is close to the optimum hedge ratio. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 24:359–386, 2004     

China and Egypt:More Cooperation Brings Prosperous Future--Interview with H.E.Ali El-Hefny,Ambassador of Egypt to China

Q:With long history and outstanding cultural achievements, China and Egypt have good cooperation in politics,economy, tourism, and education. Focusing on economy, what complementarities do you think our two countries have? What kind of potentials could be discovered and in which aspects could we enhance economic and trade cooperation?     

公司治理结构中经营者盈余管理的博弈分析

本文从经营者与监督者之间的博弈模型入手,讨论了公司治理结构对盈余管理的影响,并在分析了我国目前的公司治理结构存在的问题后,提出了一些措施,最后给出了研究建议。     

青岛，爱上你的N个理由

一月,青岛收到了2006年的第一份快乐和喜悦。在全国主流网络媒体新浪网的网络评选中,青岛,以绝对性的优势赢得广大网民心目中的“2005年度中国最具风情城市”。非官方的评比,没有专家团参与论证,甚至,没有严格的评选标准明细…… 100多万网民投票评选,足以证明它的分量。不靠宣传、不靠造势、不靠吹捧,一个城市用它的魅力感染着越来越多的人。不能不说这是一个城市最好的成绩单。青岛,有着让人们深深爱恋的N个理由。     

纽约股票市场对中国A股市场的影响

首先，本文考察了纽约股市波动对中国A股市场的影响。一般认为，中国的A股市场由于严格的资本控制而免受外国影响。但是，通过月度、每周、每日的样本数据（1992年到2004年），经过季节性调整和汇率变动调整后，我们发现上海和深圳A股市场的变动与美国股票价格指数变动相一致。其次，我们考察国家贝塔值（country beta）在马尔可夫转换误差修正模型中的动态关系。对中国市场来说，国家贝塔值和错误纠正项的重要性紧密相连。在东亚金融危机之前，美国市场对中国A股市场的影响普遍存在，而东亚金融危机产生后，则是通过国家贝塔值来影响中国股市的收益。     

衍生品保证金计算的国际经验比较

随着国内金融衍生品市场的逐渐兴起，投资机构、交易所和证券监管部门等将面临越来越复杂投资组合的风险管理问题。目前国际上各交易所广泛使用的两大保证金系统是SPAN系统和TIMS系统。本文对这两大系统的计算原理进行了归纳和梳理，并就各自的优缺点进行了比较，以期对国内金融衍生品的保证金设计和风险管理提供借鉴。     

试论我国出口市场多元化战略实施

出口市场多元化应包括四个方面的内涵:首先,市场多元化是指区域多元化,即出口市场应全方位、多角度分布于世界各地,而不仅仅聚集于少数市场;其次是指商品多元化,因为商品是市场的核心内容,一国对外贸易,不单单是点多、面广,而且商品品种、规格、档次等都要多样化,才能符合不同消费层次的需求;第三,出口市场多元化应包括经营手段的多样化,即开拓海外市场要采取灵活多变的方式、方法。     

农村税费改革相关问题的深入思考

针对进一步扩大农村税费改革试点的要求，章从农村税费改革成功与否的衡量标准入手，对农村税费改革中难点问题的根本症结进行了深入分析．指出问题的根本源自不同利益主体间利益的重新分配，并在此基础上提出了解决问题的基本思路。