Why will Trump lose the trade war?

ABSTRACT

The escalating U.S.–China trade conflicts have increasingly shadowed the outlook of the world economy. The Trump administration aims to achieve its strategic goals including reducing current account deficits, promoting the U.S. manufacturing sector, and curbing Chinese high-tech industries by waging the trade war against China. This paper argues that the current account deficits and the declining manufacturing sector in the U.S. are mainly driven by its internal structural factors, such as low saving rates, high labor costs, and rising service sector, rather than by the import competition from China. Moreover, the trade war further deteriorates the U.S. current account deficits and erode its comparative advantage, and it forces China to invest more in technological innovation and human capital, and thus promote its progress in high-tech industries. Thus, the U.S. will not be able to achieve its strategical goals and eventually lose the trade war.     

Negotiation support using the Graph Model for Conflict Resolution

The Graph Model for Conflict Resolution is a flexible methodology for systematically studying strategic conflicts in the real world, and is therefore a natural tool for negotiation support. The basic definitions underlying the graph model are reviewed, and the techniques for analysis and interpretation are discussed. The modeling and analysis of a case study, an international trade negotiation concerning the export of Canadian softwood lumber to the United States, are used to demonstrate the practical application of the Graph Model for Conflict Resolution as a negotiation support tool. The modeling and analysis is carried out using the GMCR software system. The ability of the Graph Model for Conflict Resolution to provide insights and advice to negotiators is emphasized.     

Fiscal decentralization, revenue and expenditure assignments, and growth in China

Theory suggests that a close match between revenue and expenditure assignments at sub-national levels benefits allocative efficiency, and hence economic growth. That is, a convergence of revenue and expenditure assignments at sub-national levels of government should, according to the theory, be positively associated with a higher growth rate. In the case of China, this paper shows, divergence, rather than convergence, in revenue and expenditures at the sub-national level of government is associated with higher rates of growth. A panel dataset for 30 provinces in China is used to examine the relationship between fiscal decentralization and economic growth over two phases of fiscal decentralization in China: (1) 1979–1993 under the fiscal contract system, and (2) 1994–1999 under the tax assignment system. The seeming contradiction between the theory and evidence in the China case is reconciled by taking into account the institutional arrangements that prevailed during the two phases of fiscal decentralization, in particular the inconsistency between the assumptions of the theory of fiscal decentralization and the institutional reality of China.     

对构建"两课"实践教学新模式的探讨

该文针对学分制管理后“两课”实践教学面临的新问题，提出要构建“两课”实践教学的新模式，必须继承原有实践教学中的好形式，必须对“两课”实践教学的组织管理、内容、形式及考核评估等进行重新研究。     

研究"后过渡期"特点促进中国经济稳定发展

入世后3年,中国的国民经济始终保持着平稳快速增长,对世界经济的影响力也在不断增强.2004年底到2006年底是中国入世的后过渡期.能否准确认识和把握后过渡期特点,能否从更大范围和更宽视野统筹国内发展和对外开放,能否充分运用WTO规则以趋利避害,提高应对市场开放冲击的有效性,关系中国能否顺利度过后过渡期,关系中国经济的长期繁荣稳定.     

Discussion of “The Role of Expectations in Explaining the Cross-Section of Stock Returns”

This paper discusses Copeland et al. (2004), which empirically investigates the role of changes in expectations in explaining contemporaneous cross-sectional stock returns. Because the main results in this study are largely confirmatory of results reported in prior literature, my discussion emphasizes conceptual issues in the econometric specification of earnings–return relations. I derive three versions of return specifications from popular valuation models based on residual earnings, free cash flows, or earnings growth, and contrast them with that adopted by Copeland et al. (2004). This analysis suggests that firmer grounding in theory would help the paper in empirical specifications as well as interpretations of results.     

新时期高校教师职业道德滑坡成因分析——以物流专业为例

近年来,高校教师职业道德滑坡现象明显,是什么导致了这种局面-文章指出:高校职业道德研究不深入,职业道德教育抓得不严,社会不良风气不断侵蚀,高校学生素质整体下滑,教师引进把关不严,考评机制不合理等是主要原因。     

日本金融业的"双重杠杆"现象剖析

一、令人关注的“双重杠杆”现象“双重杠杆”(Double-Gearing)也有人称之为双向杠杆,是指日本银行拥有大量的保险公司证券(通常以次级贷款和盈余票据形式持有),人寿保险公司也拥有大量的银行次级债券和股票,银行和保险公司互相持有彼此发行的证券的现象。在日本,保险公司是银行的大股东,持有每一家城市银行超过10%的股份,银行和保险公司互相交叉持股,依靠彼此信用筹集资金。截至2000年3月,保险公司提供给银行6.7万亿日元次级债券和7.7万亿日元股票,银行提供给保险公司2.3万亿日元盈余票据和次级债券。2000年,由于Chiyoda人寿保险公司、Ky…     

从税收电子技术应用看政府上网问题及对策

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电子商务:经济发展的新税源

随着我国电子商务行政管理机构的确立,我国电子商务发展已经初具规模,政策法规已初步完善.预计十五期间,网络规模将迅速发展,电子政务将迅速普及,数字化生活将迅速推广,电子商务将成为21世纪人类信息世界的核心、新型的经济贸易形式和新的经济增长点,也必将成为税收制度建设的新税源.