Volkswirtschaftliche Politikberatung

Ohne Zusammenfassung Gert G. Wagner ist Inhaber des Lehrstuhls für Volkswirtschaftslehre an der TU Berlin, Forschungsdirektor am Deutschen Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW Berlin) und Mitglied im Wissenschaftsrat     

保险业要么锁定客户，要么收购

贝恩公司调查发现,仅有1／10的保险公司成功地实现连年持续地创造价值。许多公司最终表现欠佳的主要原因在于,他们严重误判自己提供客户所需产品／服务的能力。当高级主管被问及是否认为本公司提供最佳客户体验时,77％的高管自认为是,但仅有6％的客户认同。那么,究竟什么才是保险业实现最佳股东回报的关键呢?     

Globalization, Financial Volatility and Monetary Policy

Recently it has often been claimed that globalization eases the job of central banks as it helps to tame inflation. This is used to argue that central banks (particularly the ECB, referring to the objectives as laid down in the EU Treaty) could or should reduce their efforts in the fight against inflation in favor of supporting the general economic policies of the governments. This paper takes a critical look at this argument, pointing to the structural changes associated with globalization and to the corresponding increase in uncertainty by which the central banks are affected. As an example of this, the increase in financial volatility is analyzed and explained as the result of optimal portfolio allocation, and its implications for monetary policy are discussed.     

Equal opportunity and poverty reduction: How should aid be allocated?

This paper analyzes a model of aid allocation equalizing the opportunity between recipient countries to reach a common poverty reduction goal. We propose a fair and efficient aid allocation based on a multicriteria principle. The model considers structural handicaps in recipient countries in terms of lack of human capital and economic vulnerability, their initial poverty, and the natural gap between the growth rate required to reach a development goal and the observed one. We show that our proposed aid allocation favors poor and vulnerable countries with our multicriteria principle. It substantially differs from the observed allocation. Analyses also shed light on the impact of the donors' aversion to the low natural growth gap in recipient countries on the optimal aid allocation and the marginal efficiency of aid.     

An Empirical Analysis of and Policy Recommendations to Improve the Nutritional Quality of School Meals

The National School Lunch Program is not meeting its nutritional goals. Data for 330 Minnesota school districts are analyzed to derive recommendations for improving the nutritional quality of school lunches. This study finds, contrary to widely held views, that lunch sales do not decline when healthier meals with less fat, for example, are served and that more nutritious lunches do not necessarily cost more. Healthier meals have higher labor costs, but lower costs for processed foods. Indirect costs, paid by the food service to the school district, negatively affect meal quality by decreasing funds to upgrade kitchens and train staff to prepare more nutritious meals.     

Export Intensity and Plant Characteristics: What Can We Learn from Quantile Regression?

Using quantile regression and a rich cross section data set for German manufacturing plants this paper documents that the impact of plant characteristics on export activities varies along the conditional size distribution of the export/sales ratio. For example, firm size is statistically significant at a conventional level for the 0.25 quantile only; branch plant status matters at the upper tail of the conditional distribution of the export/sales ratio only; the craft shop dummy is only significant for the very top quantile; and patents do not matter at the very lower end of the conditional distribution of export over sales. This has implications both for understanding what makes a successful exporter, and for the design of policy measures with a focus on supporting exporters. JEL no. F10, D21, L60     

Der Ausbau der Hochschulen muss zügig kommen

Die Bedeutung des Humankapitals für das künftige Wirtschaftswachstum ist allgemein anerkannt. Gleichzeitig sto?en steigende Studienanf?ngerzahlen auf knappe Bildungsbudgets in den Bundesl?ndern. Wie wird sich die Zahl der Studienanf?nger bis 2020 entwickeln? Wird es eine entsprechende Nachfrage nach Hochschulabsolventen geben? Welcher Kapazit?tsaufbau ist an den Hochschulen erforderlich und was wird er kosten?