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101.
We conduct a cross-country empirical analysis of fiscal solvency based on dynamic stochastic general equilibrium conditions. The results show evidence of fiscal solvency, in the form of a robust positive conditional response of the primary balance to changes in public debt, in panels for emerging and industrial economies and in a combined panel. Emerging economies show a stronger response and hence converge to lower mean debt-output ratios, as observed in the data. The results are weaker for countries with debt ratios exceeding panel means and medians. Hence, we can separate countries where fiscal solvency holds from those where it remains in doubt. 相似文献
102.
In a conversation held in June 2016 between Nobel laureate Eugene Fama of the University of Chicago and Joel Stern, chairman and CEO of Stern Value Management, Professor Fama revisited some of the landmarks of “modern finance,” a movement that was launched in the early 1960s at Chicago and other leading business schools, and that gave rise to Efficient Markets Theory, the Modigliani‐Miller “irrelevance” propositions, and the Capital Asset Pricing Model. These concepts and models are still taught at prestigious business schools, whose graduates continue to make use of them in corporations and investment firms throughout the world. But while acknowledging the staying power of “modern finance,” Fama also notes that, even after a half‐century of research and refinements, most asset‐pricing models have failed empirically. Estimating something as apparently simple as the cost of capital remains fraught with difficulty. He dismisses betas for individual stocks as “garbage,” and even industry betas are said to be unstable, “too dynamic through time.” What's more, the wide range of estimates for the market risk premium—anywhere from 2% to 10%—casts doubt on their reliability and practical usefulness. And as if to reaffirm the fundamental insight of the M&M “irrelevance” propositions—namely, that what companies do with the right‐hand sides of their balance sheets “doesn't matter”—Fama observes that “we still have no real resolution on the key questions of debt and taxes, or dividends and taxes.” But if he has reservations about much of modern finance, Professor Fama is even more skeptical about subfields now in vogue such as behavioral finance, which he describes as “mostly just dredging for anomalies,” with no underlying theory and no testable predictions. Although he does not dispute that a number of well‐documented traits from cognitive psychology show up in individual behavior, Fama says that behavioral economists have thus far failed to come up with a testable theory that links cognitive psychology to market prices. And he continues to defend the concept of “efficient markets” with which his name has long been closely associated, while noting that empirically based asset pricing models such as his (with Ken French) “three‐factor” CAPM have produced much better results than the standard CAPM. 相似文献
103.
Joel M. Vanden 《Annals of Finance》2016,12(2):245-273
This article shows how to construct an optimal capital structure for a private firm. Since the agents who supply the firm’s capital are risk averse, they diversify by holding both debt and equity. This can mitigate, or even eliminate, the classical risk shifting problem. There is a wealth effect since the optimal capital structure, which can involve multiple types of debt, depends on the amount of wealth that each agent contributes to the firm. However, it is shown that the agents’ equity holdings do not depend on the contributed amounts of wealth. Thus the model can produce a wedge between ownership rights and equity cashflow rights. These features are illustrated in a firm with three agents. 相似文献
104.
Financial globalization, financial crises and contagion 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Two observations suggest that financial globalization played an important role in the recent financial crisis. First, more than half of the rise in net borrowing of the U.S. non-financial sectors since the mid-1980s has been financed by foreign lending. Second, the collapse of the U.S. housing and mortgage-backed-securities markets had worldwide effects on financial institutions and asset markets. Using an open-economy model where financial intermediaries play a central role, we show that financial integration leads to a sharp rise in net credit in the most financially developed country and to large asset price spillovers of country-specific shocks to bank capital. The impacts of these shocks on asset prices are amplified by bank capital requirements based on mark-to-market. 相似文献
105.
Susana Yu Joel Rentzler Kishore Tandon 《Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting》2010,34(1):1-21
This paper examines the uncertain information hypothesis on one major index and its corresponding exchange-traded fund: the
S&P 500 Index and SPDRs in the pre-SPDRs (01/63–12/93) and post-SPDRs (01/94–12/03) periods. Two strategies are used to measure
the economic significance of the uncertain information hypothesis. Overall, we present evidence confirming the uncertain information
hypothesis in the post-SPDRs period. However, we fail to convert the statistically significant gains observed into economic
gains under a conservative approach. In addition, the degree of difference in the volatilities of the 5-day post-event returns
(in both the S&P 500 and the SPDR) among the three subgroups diminishes in the post-SPDR period. Hence, we conclude that the
market is in fact short-term efficient in a more realistic setting. 相似文献
106.
Enrique José Jiménez-Rodriguez José Manuel Feria-Dominguez José Luis Martin-Marin 《美中经济评论(英文版)》2009,8(6):15-21,29
The main objective of this paper is to estimate the economic capital for covering the external fraud risk within a financial institution. This is a kind of operational risk which is due to acts of a type intended to defraud, misappropriate property or circumvent the law, by a third party. From the methodological point of view, we apply the Loss Distribution Approach (LDA), based on the Internal Operational Loss Database (IOLD) provided by a Spanish Saving Bank. More specifically, we asses the potential impact of the severity distribution on the Capital at Risk (CAR). In absence of normality, we try to adjust the Lognormal, Weibull and Exponential functions when modelling the severity of losses. As a result, we find a high divergence in terms of capital charge depending on the statistical model selected. In consequence, in order to obtain a realistic model, we highlight the relevance of the goodness of fit between the empirical and the theoretical distribution. 相似文献
107.
Enrique Bigné Blanca Hernández Carla Ruiz Luisa Andreu 《Journal of Air Transport Management》2010,16(6):346-349
Despite the resources airlines are devoting to increasing e-commerce, the key drivers of online airline ticket purchases have been little explored. This study analyzes how motivation, opportunity and ability influence patrons’ intentions to purchase tickets online and the features that influence online airline ticket purchases. A sample of online purchasers of airline tickets in Spain is examined. 相似文献
108.
In the past decade, Chinese outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) has become a major element of global capital flows. As a consequence, recent years have witnessed an increasing growth in the number of papers focusing on Chinese companies “going global.” This paper reviews 112 empirical papers focusing on Chinese OFDI that were published in major scholarly journals between 2002 and 2014. We report on individual and institutional contributions, citations, the theories and methods used and the research topics. We also identify the research gaps and discuss the implications of our literature review for future theory building. 相似文献
109.
This paper explores whether DICTION text analysis software reveals distinctive language markers of a verbal tone of hubris in annual letters to shareholders signed by CEOs of major companies. We analyze 193 letters to shareholders, comprising about 368,000 words, focusing initially on 23 letters signed by CEOs who are alleged to be hubristic: Browne (BP), Goodwin (Royal Bank of Scotland), and Murdoch (News). Their language use is statistically significantly high in terms of the DICTION master variable, REALISM. Based on further analysis, we contend that language high in REALISM is not a distinctive marker of hubris but is likely to be a genre effect that is common in CEO letters to shareholders. We draw attention to the restricted capacity of DICTION to capture subtlety of language in CEO letters to shareholders. 相似文献
110.