Why risk popular ratification failure? A comparative analysis of the choice of the ratification instrument in the 25 Member States of the EU

Following the European integration history, referenda are a risky ratification strategy. Despite establishing a convention and intense treaty negotiations, an unprecedented number of eleven member states announced a referendum for the ratification of the constitutional treaty in 2004, two of them finally failed and stalled the ratification process. This study examines the choice of the ratification instrument by an empirical analysis of the strategic interaction between government, opposition parties and the electorate in the 25 ratification countries. Our analysis considers country-specific conditions and correctly predicts most of the ratification choices in countries which announced referenda (65%) and almost all parliamentary ratification cases (93%). The results reveal that governments choose referenda when they expect low gains from a treaty reform or are confronted with a Euro-sceptical parliamentary opposition. We also find that governments are eager to separate popular votes from domestic electoral campaigns.     

What’s in a Credo? A Critique of the Academy of Management’s Code of Ethical Conduct and Code of Ethics

The Academy of Management formally adopted a Code of Ethical Conduct in 1990. During the subsequent 15 years, almost nothing had been published about it and its value as a formal document meant to guide professional practice. Rather surprisingly then, in December 2005 an entirely new Code of Ethics was introduced by the Academy’s Board, to take effect in February 2006. Why was a new code promulgated? More broadly, what do the contents of these codes, the processes of their promulgation, and their expressed purposes, suggest about the value of such codes for similarly situated professional associations, in general? This article seeks to identify key strengths and weaknesses of the original code, begin an assessment of the potential value of the new code, and so stimulate debate. Further, not only is this a call to the members of the Academy to engage in some thoughtful debate and possible amendment of its new code, but also a caution to all such associations to take seriously the hurdles that must be jumped before any code can be developed and promulgated to worthwhile effect.     

A comparison of alternative approaches for determining the downside risk of hedge fund strategies

In this study, we compare a number of different approaches for determining the Value at Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) of hedge fund investment strategies. We compute VaR and ES through both model‐free and mean/variance and distribution model‐based methods. Certain specifications of the models that we considered can technically address the typical characteristics of hedge fund returns such as autocorrelation, asymmetry, fat tails, and time‐varying variances. We find that conditional mean/variance models coupled with appropriate assumptions on the empirical distribution can improve the prediction accuracy of VaR. In particular, we observed the highest prediction accuracy for the predictions of 1% VaR. We also find that the goodness of ES prediction models is primarily influenced by the distribution model rather than the mean/variance specification. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 29:244–269, 2009     

Business Leadership: Three Levels of Ethical Analysis

Research on the normative aspect of leadership is still a relatively new enterprise within the mainstream of leadership studies. In the past, most academic inquiry into leadership was grounded in a social scientific paradigm that largely ignored the ethical substance of leadership. However, perhaps because of a number of public and infamous cases of failure in business leadership, in recent years there has been renewed interest in the ethical side of leadership in business. This paper argues that ethical issues of leadership actually arise at number of different levels, and that it is important to distinguish between various diverse kinds of ethical issues that arise in the study of leadership. The three levels identified are the level of the individual morality of leaders, the level of the means of their leadership, and the level of the leadership mission itself. We argue that only by fully understanding all of the different levels of ethical analysis pertinent to business leadership, and the distinctive kind of issues that arise at each level, can we fully integrate normative studies of leadership into the field of leadership studies. As such, this paper offers a model that incorporates three different levels of ethical analysis that can be used to study normative issues in leadership studies. Such a model can be used to better understand and integrate ethical issues into research, teaching, and training in leadership.     

Optimum government credibility in an open-economy fiscal expansion

A real open-economy model is constructed in which the government's commitment to a future fiscal expansion is not credible. Government credibility (measured by the growth rate of the probability that the expansion will occur) becomes a parameter of the system and appears directly in the eigenvalues. Simulations are performed demonstrating the effect of credibility on GNP, the exchange rate, and other variables. Lastly, the optimum credibility is determined which minimizes a loss function associated with deviations from full employment.     

DOES ATHLETIC SUCCESS INFLUENCE PERSISTENCE AT HIGHER EDUCATION INSTITUTIONS? NEW EVIDENCE USING PANEL DATA

This study examines the relationship between athletic success and student persistence toward a degree. We build an updated panel of National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) Division I institutions and utilize within‐institution variation to identify the effects of athletic success. Using a ranking of all institutions, we find that having more successful men's basketball and football teams has a significant positive effect on first‐year retention rates. We also find some evidence that improved basketball rankings increase graduation rates, and that success in the NCAA tournament may have a sizable impact on retention. Although the estimated effects are generally modest in scale, we find rather limited evidence of other institutional factors affecting persistence, suggesting that athletics can be one avenue for institutions of higher education to engage and retain students. (JEL I23, Z20, L83)     

Efficiency characteristics of a market for state contingent claims

This paper concludes that a market for state-contingent claims (UK horserace betting) displays evidence of pervasive but heterogeneous forms of inefficiency, in significant contrast to earlier investigations. Using hitherto unavailable data, comparison of notional returns implicit in parallel sets of bookmaker and parimutuel odds identifies inefficiency in terms of zones of distinct but contrasting forms of cross-;market returns differential. The inefficiency is rationalized in terms of both buyer and supplier behaviour; its durability is explained in terms of limited arbitrage opportunities.     

WHAT YOU DON'T KNOW CAN HURT YOU: KNOWLEDGE PROBLEMS IN MONETARY POLICY

Many economists hold that monetary policy missteps played a role in causing or prolonging the 2007–2008 financial crisis. In light of the perceived failure of monetary orthodoxy, models are being theoretically refined and empirically recalibrated. Absent from these technical debates is a recognition of the immense knowledge burdens inherent in monetary policy. We argue that Fed authorities do not have the knowledge required to achieve their own monetary objectives, given their inability to approximately measure or predict changes in the demand for money. Finally, we evaluate the ability of free banking to overcome this knowledge problem. (JEL E42, E52, E58, E61, P16)     

How are Scope and Adding up Relevant for Benefits Transfer?

In this paper, we explore ways in which the theoretical constructs of scope and adding up can inform and improve the practice of benefit transfer. Specifically, we examine how the stated preference literature on scope and adding up can inform three critical steps in benefits transfer: study site selection, including studies to select for use in a meta-regression; calibrating benefit functions; and assessing transfer validity.