基于"泛福利"实现的城市更新思考

坚持城市更新,走科学城市化道路。本文从城市更新的科学内涵出发,通过剖析我国城市更新存在的问题,进而提出了基于泛福利实现的城市更新思考。泛福利实现的城市更新,强调在科学发展观的指引下,坚持以人为本,坚持以城市最广大人民群众的幸福感知和利益实现为核心目标。     

增强施工企业成本控制的思考

在市场经济逐步完善的条件下,想要提高经济效益,就要加强企业的成本控制,营造良好的企业现代成本管理控制观念,建立有效的控制管理体系。     

The relative income hypothesis

Despite its theoretical dominance, the empirical case in favor of the permanent income hypothesis is weak. Contrary to one of its basic implications, a growing body of evidence suggests that rich households save a higher proportion of their permanent income than poor households. We propose an overlapping-generations economy where households care about relative consumption. As a result, an individual's consumption is driven by the comparison of his lifetime income and the lifetime income of his reference group; a permanent income version of Duesenberry's (1949) relative income hypothesis. Across households the savings rate increases with income while aggregate savings are independent of the income distribution.     

Weekly scheduling models for traveling therapists

This paper presents a series of models that can be used to find weekly schedules for therapists who provide ongoing treatment to patients throughout a geographical region. In all cases, patient-appointment times and visit days are known prior to the beginning of the planning horizon. Variations in the models include single vs. multiple home bases, homogeneous vs. heterogeneous therapists, lunch break requirements, and a nonlinear cost structure for mileage reimbursement and overtime. The single home base and homogeneous therapist cases proved to be easy to solve and so were not thoroughly investigated. This left two cases of interest: the first included only lunch breaks while the second added nonlinear overtime and mileage reimbursement costs. For the first case, 40 data sets were solved, each consisting of either 15 or 20 therapists and between roughly 300 and 540 patient visits over five days. For each instance, we were able to obtain the minimum cost of providing residential healthcare services using a commercial solver. The results showed that CPU time increases more rapidly than total cost as the total number of visits grows. For the second case, which was much more difficult, it was necessary to develop heuristics to find good solutions quickly. Results for 5- through 20-therapist instances are presented and compared to the linear programming relaxation lower bounds. In the first of two parametric analyses, the tradeoff between the number of therapists on staff and the cost of providing service was examined. In the second, a similar tradeoff was explored between cost can the number of home bases used by the therapists.     

The institution efficiency of stock price limits： An experimental analysis on the two stocks market with continuous bid

Price limits in product market have been discarded in classic microeconomics. However, price limits affect the trade behavior of the same agent, since agents in the stock market change their trade status frequently. Due to the controversy on the institution effectiveness of the price limits in stock market, this paper design an experimental market with two stocks with continuous bid, in which we investigate the impact of the price limits on the stock market. The results show that the price limits moderate the price volatility within and between the trades periods, thus can stabilize stock price. In addition, price limits, when measured by traditional approach, restrain the fluidity of the market, reduce the volatility of transaction shares and maintain durative of fluidity. While volatility-based fluidity measurements show that the fluidity is enhanced significantly in stock market with price limits.     

Interpreting Value at Risk (VaR) forecasts

Value at Risk (VaR) forecasts have been increasingly accepted globally by both risk managers and regulators as a tool to identify and control exposure to financial market risk. However, modern portfolios are characterized by a constantly changing composition of security holdings that reflect portfolio managers’ strategies, expected prices, and net cash flows into the portfolio. As a result of these factors, portfolio returns are time-varying mixtures of distributions which are unlikely to be well approximated by conventional methods.     

Updating Input–Output Tables with Benchmark Table Series

Numerous methods have been proposed to update input–output (I–O) tables. They rely on the assumption that the economic structure will not change significantly during the interpolation period. However, this assumption may not always hold, particularly for countries experiencing rapid development. This study attempts to combine forecasting with a matrix transformation technique (MTT) to provide a new perspective on updating I–O tables. Under the assumption that changes in the trend of an economic structure are statistically significant, the method extrapolates I–O tables by combining time series models with an MTT and proceeds with only the total value added during the target years. A simulation study and empirical analysis are conducted to compare the forecasting performance of the MTT to the Generalized RAS (GRAS) and Kuroda methods. The results show that the comprehensive performance of the MTT is better than the performance of the GRAS and Kuroda methods, as measured by the Standardized Total Percentage Error, Theil's U and Mean Absolute Percentage Error indices.     

Efficient forecast tests for conditional policy forecasts

Central Banks regularly make forecasts, such as the Fed’s Greenbook forecast, that are conditioned on hypothetical paths for the policy interest rate. While there are good public policy reasons to evaluate the quality of such forecasts, up until now, the most common approach has been to ignore their conditional nature and apply standard forecast efficiency tests. In this paper we derive tests for the efficiency of conditional forecasts. Intuitively, these tests involve implicit estimates of the degree to which the conditioning path is counterfactual and the magnitude of the policy feedback over the forecast horizon. We apply the tests to the Greenbook forecast and the Bank of England’s inflation report forecast, finding some evidence of forecast inefficiency. Nonetheless, we argue that the conditional nature of the forecasts made by central banks represents a substantial impediment to the analysis of their quality—stronger assumptions are needed and forecast inefficiency may go undetected for longer than would be the case if central banks were instead to report unconditional forecasts.     

Analysing enterprise architecture maturity models: a learning perspective

In order to aid organisations in the adoption of enterprise architecture (EA) best practices, maturity models have been proposed in the literature. These models offer organisational roadmaps and assessment frameworks for increasing EA maturity. However, key questions concerning the implied meaning of the term maturity in the context of these models have been left unexplored by previous research. This research, aided by the field of organisational learning, offers new insights into the implied assumptions of current EA maturity models and offers initial concepts and constructs to guide the conceptualisation, construction and refinement of enterprise maturity models.