Weekly scheduling models for traveling therapists

This paper presents a series of models that can be used to find weekly schedules for therapists who provide ongoing treatment to patients throughout a geographical region. In all cases, patient-appointment times and visit days are known prior to the beginning of the planning horizon. Variations in the models include single vs. multiple home bases, homogeneous vs. heterogeneous therapists, lunch break requirements, and a nonlinear cost structure for mileage reimbursement and overtime. The single home base and homogeneous therapist cases proved to be easy to solve and so were not thoroughly investigated. This left two cases of interest: the first included only lunch breaks while the second added nonlinear overtime and mileage reimbursement costs. For the first case, 40 data sets were solved, each consisting of either 15 or 20 therapists and between roughly 300 and 540 patient visits over five days. For each instance, we were able to obtain the minimum cost of providing residential healthcare services using a commercial solver. The results showed that CPU time increases more rapidly than total cost as the total number of visits grows. For the second case, which was much more difficult, it was necessary to develop heuristics to find good solutions quickly. Results for 5- through 20-therapist instances are presented and compared to the linear programming relaxation lower bounds. In the first of two parametric analyses, the tradeoff between the number of therapists on staff and the cost of providing service was examined. In the second, a similar tradeoff was explored between cost can the number of home bases used by the therapists.     

Interpreting Value at Risk (VaR) forecasts

Value at Risk (VaR) forecasts have been increasingly accepted globally by both risk managers and regulators as a tool to identify and control exposure to financial market risk. However, modern portfolios are characterized by a constantly changing composition of security holdings that reflect portfolio managers’ strategies, expected prices, and net cash flows into the portfolio. As a result of these factors, portfolio returns are time-varying mixtures of distributions which are unlikely to be well approximated by conventional methods.     

Efficient forecast tests for conditional policy forecasts

Central Banks regularly make forecasts, such as the Fed’s Greenbook forecast, that are conditioned on hypothetical paths for the policy interest rate. While there are good public policy reasons to evaluate the quality of such forecasts, up until now, the most common approach has been to ignore their conditional nature and apply standard forecast efficiency tests. In this paper we derive tests for the efficiency of conditional forecasts. Intuitively, these tests involve implicit estimates of the degree to which the conditioning path is counterfactual and the magnitude of the policy feedback over the forecast horizon. We apply the tests to the Greenbook forecast and the Bank of England’s inflation report forecast, finding some evidence of forecast inefficiency. Nonetheless, we argue that the conditional nature of the forecasts made by central banks represents a substantial impediment to the analysis of their quality—stronger assumptions are needed and forecast inefficiency may go undetected for longer than would be the case if central banks were instead to report unconditional forecasts.     

Analysing enterprise architecture maturity models: a learning perspective

In order to aid organisations in the adoption of enterprise architecture (EA) best practices, maturity models have been proposed in the literature. These models offer organisational roadmaps and assessment frameworks for increasing EA maturity. However, key questions concerning the implied meaning of the term maturity in the context of these models have been left unexplored by previous research. This research, aided by the field of organisational learning, offers new insights into the implied assumptions of current EA maturity models and offers initial concepts and constructs to guide the conceptualisation, construction and refinement of enterprise maturity models.     

Social networks,mass media and public opinions

Our opinions and ideas are shaped by what our friends said and what we read or watched on mass media. In this paper, we propose a concise and analyzable model to study the effects of mass media modeled as an applied external field, and social networks on public opinions based on the multi-state voter model, and a tuned parameter can control the relative intensity of the effects of mass media and social networks. We consider a generalized scenario where there exist committed or stubborn agents in the networks whose opinions are not affected by their friends or mass media. We find that the fraction of each opinion will converge to a value which only relates to the fractions and degrees of stubborn agents, and the relative intensity between media and network effects. The final agents with media opinion, except the stubborn agents, also include the increment produced by the internal impact of social networks and that caused by the external impact of media. Interestingly the second increment is composed of two parts, one is from the media effect when there are no interactions between agents and the other is from the influence of media on agent opinions caused by social network structure. That is the interactions among agents within social networks can amplify media influence. Finally we also discuss several extensions to the dynamics model which consider more realistic scenarios.     

Offshore Outsourcing: Implications for International Business and Strategic Management Theory and Practice

abstract    In this essay, I discuss the implications of the debate over offshoring for our collective understanding of international business and management theories. I review several core theories in international business expansion and management strategy to assess which elements of these theories may need to be re-specified in light of the offshoring phenomenon and which aspects remain relevant. I then present normative implications and recommendations for public policy and corporate strategy, drawing from emerging insights regarding the global responsibilities of corporations. I suggest that international labour and environmental standards and corporate codes of conduct could mitigate some of the most intense concerns raised about offshoring but conclude that offshoring is likely to present challenges to societies, corporations, and stakeholders for many decades.     

When haste makes sense: Cracking down on street markets for illicit drugs

This paper presents an analytical approach to the tactical question: ‘What level of enforcement over time allows one to eliminate a street market for illicit drugs while expanding the least possible total effort?’ The analysis is done in the context of Caulkins' model [6] which predicts the rate of change of dealers as a function of enforcement level and several market parameters. Our analysis suggests that the simple strategy of using the maximum available enforcement intensity until the market has been eliminated minimizes the total enforcement effort required.