Reputation Effects in Bargaining Games

This paper studies reputation effects in a dynamic simultaneous-offer bilateral bargaining game in which one player might have some kind of irrational commitment that compels him to insist on some particular bargaining allocation. It is shown that if this player insists on this allocation, then the bargaining game will end within the first few rounds and he can get an expected payoff close to that allocation. More importantly, the upper bound within which the bargaining game ends does not depend on the relative strength of the two players.     

Strategic choice during economic crisis: Domestic market position,organizational capabilities and export flexibility

This study examines how sudden shrinkage of domestic demand affects firm-level export performance. Using the Asian economic crisis as a natural experiment, we show that while the industrial organization (IO) economics and resource-based view (RBV) apply well in the pre-crisis period, the real options perspective does a better job in explaining firms’ efforts to increase exports in the post-crisis period. Specifically, using a real options perspective, we show how sudden change in domestic demand provides benefits to those firms that have invested in flexible capabilities while those firms that are locked in with inflexible resources fail to change. We find that the positive relationship between a firm's domestic market position and export intensity becomes stronger in the post-crisis than the pre-crisis period. Further, we find a positive relationship between non-location-bound flexible capabilities such as R&D and export intensity and a negative relationship between location-bound inflexible capabilities such as advertising and export intensity. These relationships become more pronounced in the post-crisis period.     

The British and American Rules: an Experimental Examination of Pre-trial Bargaining in the Shadowof the Law

A commonly held view is that the frequency and value of pre-trial settlements in civil disputes are greatly influenced by the cost allocation regime that is in place if the case goes to trial. There is a large and growing theoretical literature on this subject but almost no empirical evidence. This is due simply to the scarcity of relevant data owing to the confidentiality generally associated with such matters. However, the area is an ideal one to analyse experimentally. In this paper we consider the effect of the British and American rules for cost allocation using such an experimental methodology. We find that the two rules produce no difference in the frequency of pre-trial settlements but that the British rule produces higher settlements (pro-pursuer) if the probability of the pursuer winning is large.     

Monitoring and Structure of Debt Contracts

This paper presents a theory of optimal debt structure when the moral hazard problem is severe. The main idea is that the optimal debt contract delegates monitoring to a single senior lender and that seniority allows the monitoring senior lender to appropriate the full return from his monitoring activities. The theory explains (i) why debt contracts are prioritized, (ii) why short-term debt is senior to long-term debt, and (iii) why financial intermediaries usually hold short-term senior debt whereas long-term junior debt is widely held. Another implication of the theory is that covenant and maturity structures will be set to conform to the seniority structure.     

Risk Management,Corporate Governance,and the Search for Long-Term Investors

This discussion explores a number of ways that more effective risk management, corporate governance, and communication with investors can help companies increase their effciency and long-run value. According to one of the panelists, recent surveys of corporate directors suggest that companies should devote more time and attention to three issues—strategy, risk management, and succession planning—and that strategy and risk are the “flipsides of the same coin.” As the panelist argues, “You can't talk about strategy without talking about what risks you're going to take—and what risks you decide to take has to depend on the core competencies that drive the corporate strategy.” In addition to making risk management a critical part of corporate strategy, another notable recommendation is to communicate a company's strategy and business plan as clearly as possible to investors, with the aim of attracting more sophisticated, long-term shareholders. Contrary to popular belief, such a group may well include some hedge funds and other activist shareholders. According to a newly released report on shareholder activism (produced and cited by another panelist), corporate boards should work harder to identify and engage the “largest 10 shareholders in the organization,” with the ultimate goal of cultivating a shareholder base that buys into the company's strategy.     

坚持优化环境 自主创新 实现云南省大学科技园跨越发展

昆明国家高新区云南省大学科技园是经云南省人民政府批准设立的科技孵化器,2001年5月被国家科技部.教育部认定为"国家级大学科技园".建园以来,云南省大学科技园依托高校现有教学、科研设施和研究成果.充分发挥昆明国家高新区体制、机制、政策的优势和社会服务功能,以高新技术成果的商品化.产业化和国际化为目标.实现了高校、科研机构的智力资源与社会资源的有机结合.云南省国家大学科技园现已成为昆明高新区技术创新体系的重要组成部分.成为云南省.昆明市重要的创新平台.     

The Altrurian Economics of William Dean Howells

A bstract . In two of his novels , A TRAVELER FROM ALTRURIA and THROUGH THE EYE OF THE NEEDLE, William Dean Howells describes the ideal commonwealth of Australia where the production and distribution of goods and services do not occur in self-regulating markets such as those found in Western-world economies. Thus, traditional economic theories are limited in analyses of the Australian economy, and critics are hampered in their efforts to understand Howelis'Utopia. This study synthesizes Howells'criticisms of the harshness of 19th-century American capitalism as presented in the two novels and then analyzes the economic structure of Australia by using Karl Polanyi's framework for studying non-market societies. This framework includes the concepts of reciprocity, redistribution , and administered trade.     

Marriage Market,Parents’ Bargaining Powers,and Children's Nutrition and Education*

Test of resource pooling and test of effect of sex ratio in the marriage market on intrahousehold resource allocation are combined to test the unitary household model. The consistency condition between the two tests is derived to test the Nash household bargaining and Pareto‐efficient household models. I examine intrahousehold resource allocation to children's nutrition and education in Indonesia. For children's nutrition, the unitary household model is rejected in favour of the non‐unitary models. The results for investment in education are mixed. The decision‐making process may differ depending on the type of decision being made.     

China and the international relocation of world textile and clothing activity

Zusammenfassung China und die internationale Verlagerung der Textil- und Bekleidungsindustrie. - Die chinesischen Wirtschaftsreformen seit den sp?ten 70er Jahren haben das Wachstum des chinesischen Au\enhandels erheblich stimuliert. Chinas Exporte arbeitsintensiver Erzeugnisse wie Textilien und Bekleidung erlebten einen Aufschwung und bewirkten, da\ die fortgeschritteneren der asiatischen Entwick-lungsl?nder ihre Exporte schneller in Richtung auf weniger arbeitsintensive Produkte wie synthetische Garne, Stoffe und Fasern entwickelten. Auf diese Weise übt China einen Druck auf die strukturelle Anpassung der Textil- und Bekleidungsindustrien in den Industriel?ndern aus, und zwar direkt (am arbeitsintensiven Ende des Spektrums) und indirekt über die asiatischen Schwellenl?nder (deren übergang zu kapitalintensiveren Aktivit?ten beschleunigt wird). Parallel zu diesem Beitrag Chinas zum Anstieg des ostasiatischen Anteils am Weltexport von Textilien und Bekleidung l?uft sein Beitrag zur steigenden Vorherrschaft Ostasiens bei den Importen von unverarbeiteter Wolle und Baumwolle. In welchem Umfang China weiterhin in dieser Weise fortf?hrt - und dabei seine eigene Volkswirtschaft entwickelt und st?rkt -, h?ngt in hohem Ma\e von ?nderungen der Importbeschr?nkungspolitik in den Industriel?ndern ab.

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Résumé La Chine et la relocation internationale des activités mondiales en textile et habillement. - Les réformes en politique économique chinoise depuis les années soixante-dix ont stimulé le commerce extérieur chinois. Les exportations chinoises des produits manufacturés intensifs à la main d’∄uvre comme par exemple des produits finis de textile et de l’habillement ont prospéré considérablement poussant les pays développants asiatiques plus avancés d’exporter des biens moins intensifs à la main d’∄uvre comme p.e. les fils synthétiques, les tissus et les fibres. Ainsi la Chine exerce des pressions d’ajustement structurel sur les industries de textile et de l’habillement dans les pays industriels avancés d’une manière directe (à la fin du spectre où il y a des biens intensifs à la main d’∄uvre) et indirecte via les PNI asiatiques (où le développement envers des activités plus intensives aux capitaux est accéléré). En même temps la Chine contribue beaucoup à la dominance montante de l’Asie de l’Est en importations mondiaux du coton pur et de la laine. La mesure avec laquelle la Chine continue à contribuer en telles manières - et ainsi à développer et fortifier son économie propre - dépend fortement des changements des politiques d’importation restrictives dans les pays industriels.

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Resumen La China y la reubicación international de la industria textil y de la confección de prendas de vestir. - Las reformas de política económica realizadas desde fines de la década del setenta estimularon el comercio international de China. Sus exportaciones de manufacturas intensivas en mano de obra como ser las de textiles y confección crecieron pronunciadamente, dando motivo a los países más avanzados del Asia para modificar su estructura de exportación en dirección hacia productos de menor intensidad laboral como ser hilos, tejidos y fibras sintéticas. Con ello China ejerce presión sobre las industrias textiles y de confección de los países industriales avanzados, tanto en forma directa (en el lado del espectro con alta intensidad en mano de obra) como indirecta a través de los NICs asiáticos (cuyo énfasis en actividades intensivas en capital es fomentado), con el fin de lograr un reajuste estructural. Paralelamente a esta contribución de China al crecimiento de la participatión del Este asiático en las exportaciones mundiales de productos textiles y de confección, China contribuye al aumento de la importancia del Este asiático como importador de algodón natural y lana. La medida en la cual China continuará contribuyendo - y de esta mariera desarrollando y fortaleciendo su propia economía - depende ante todo de las politicas de importación restrictivas de los paises industriales.

     

CHANGING VOLATILITY AND THE PRICING OF OPTIONS ON STOCK INDEX FUTURES

This paper presents empirical results regarding the suitability of the Black model for the pricing of options on stock index futures. Whaley's technique is used to present empirical evidence regarding the pricing biases of the model. Information provided by the implied volatilities suggests that model refinements should address the changing volatility issue.