Technology assessment and risk analysis

The evolution of technology assessment from cost-benefit calculus to a sophisticated form of policy analysis has gone through at least three and possibly four stages. These stages, characterized by the degree of comprehensiveness aspired by the natural affinity of risk analysis to technology assessment, are explored in some detail, and it is postulated that risk analysis might very well follow a similar evolutionary path.     

‘Managerialism’, ‘ownerism’ and risk

This paper proposes that managers, having the value of their human capital dependent on the performance of the firm they manage, and being unable to diversify away this risk, are expected to attempt to reduce their employment risk internally by project selection or by income smoothing, intended to stabilize the firm's income stream. An empirical investigation shows that manager-controlled firms exercise ‘income smoothing’ to a greater extent than owner-controlled firms, have relatively lower unsystematic risk and perhaps lower systematic risk.     

The value of combining the information content of analyst recommendations and target prices

In assessing the usefulness of the analysts’ stock picking advice, the extant literature has largely focused on the profitability of either their stock recommendations or target prices in isolation. In this paper, we examine the profitability of investment strategies that exploit the information analysts convey through revisions in both their stock recommendations and target prices. We find that these strategies significantly outperform the comparable strategies that make use of only one analyst output.     

Quality financial inclusion and financial vulnerability

Despite existing evidence suggesting that financial inclusion enhances consumers' welfare, there has been no attempt to examine the link between financial inclusion and financial vulnerability, measured along multiple dimensions. We computed more comprehensive indices of financial vulnerability and financial inclusion using polychoric principal component analysis based on a nationally representative financial inclusion survey in South Africa. Results from quantile regressions show that only the top 20% of the financially included had lower vulnerability but the effect was weaker among the more vulnerable categories. Also, the decline in financial vulnerability was less pronounced when financial inclusion was narrowly defined by excluding quality indicators. These findings suggest that financial inclusion is benefitting a few consumers in South Africa which points to the need for a bottom-up approach in designing financial products that improve the welfare of the financially included consumers.     

Expected Option Returns

This paper examines expected option returns in the context of mainstream asset-pricing theory. Under mild assumptions, expected call returns exceed those of the underlying security and increase with the strike price. Likewise, expected put returns are below the risk-free rate and increase with the strike price. S&P index option returns consistently exhibit these characteristics. Under stronger assumptions, expected option returns vary linearly with option betas. However, zero-beta, at-the-money straddle positions produce average losses of approximately three percent per week. This suggests that some additional factor, such as systematic stochastic volatility, is priced in option returns.     

Incentives for voluntary disclosure

Rule l0b-5 of the 1934 Securities and Exchange Act allows investors to sue firms for misrepresentation or omission. Since firms are principal–agent contracts between owners – contract designers – and privately informed managers, owners are the ultimate firms’ voluntary disclosure strategists. We analyze voluntary disclosure equilibrium in a game with two types of owners: expected liquidating dividends motivated (VMO) and expected price motivated (PMO). We find that Rule l0b-5: (i) does not deter misrepresentation and may suppress voluntary disclosure or, (ii) induces some firms to adopt a partial disclosure policy of disclosing only bad news or only good news.