Reducing ambiguity in lotteries: evidence from a field experiment

Ambiguity about the chances of winning represents a key aspect in lotteries. By means of a controlled field experiment, we exogenously vary the degree of ambiguity about the winning chances of lotteries organized to incentivize the contribution for a public good. In one treatment, people have been simply informed about the maximum number of potential participants (i.e. the number of lottery tickets released). In a second treatment, this information has been omitted as in all traditional lotteries. Our general finding shows that simply reducing the degree of ambiguity of the lottery leads to a sizable and significant increase (67%) in the participation rate. This result is robust to alternative prize configurations.     

基于PCA-熵权法的经济发展方式转变进程的综合测评——来自湖南2001-2014年的经验证据

基于主成分分析(PCA)与熵权相结合的方法,采用经济发展、社会发展动力、人与自然协调发展以及人的全面发展指标的源数据,测评湖南经济发展方式转变进程.结果表明:从2001-2014年湖南经济发展方式转变进程综合指数评级依次为"较差—中等—较好—很好",呈现良好转变趋势,在2014年取得报告期历年最高值,综合指数评级达到 I 级.PCA 与熵权结合的方法能较好地保证评价结果的准确性,适用于经济发展方式转变进程的科学评价.     

State‐Dependent Forward Guidance and the Problem of Inconsistent Announcements

Forward guidance can be provided as an unconditional promise, i.e. commitment to a specific low policy rate. Alternatively, the promise may include an escape clause, i.e. a condition defining the state of the economy under which the central bank would not keep such a low rate and, instead, it would revert to setting policy under discretion. The escape clause can be expressed as a threshold in terms of a specific variable. The present paper shows that, when such a threshold is expressed in terms of an endogenous variable (e.g. output, inflation), there are cases where it becomes impossible for the central bank to act in a way that is consistent with its promise. Consistency imposes limits on the policy rate that can be set since reverting immediately to the optimal discretionary rate can be incompatible with exceeding the threshold.     

The impact of transportation deregulation in the united states on Canadian—U.S. distribution channels

During the 1978-80 period the United States deregulated its transportation industry. Common carriers, through increased reward and expert power, can now perform a more dominant role in the distribution channel. Because of major differences created in the regulatory environment of the U.S. and Canada, deregulation has also had an impact on the distribution channels between the two countries. It is evident horizontal competition between U.S. and Canadian carriers, and between shippers for both domestic and export markets in the respective countries has increased. Another major result of deregulation has been that Canadian shippers and carriers engaged in international traffic to the U.S., even though they have been in complicance with Canadian law, have found themselves subject to the extra-territorial reach of the U.S. anti-trust legislation.     

Does Energy Consumption Respond to Price Shocks? Evidence from a Regression‐Discontinuity Design

We exploit unique features of a recently introduced tariff schedule for natural gas in Buenos Aires to estimate the short‐run impact of price shocks on residential energy utilization. The schedule induces a non‐linear and non‐monotonic relationship between households' accumulated consumption and unit prices, thus generating exogenous price variation, which we exploit in a regression‐discontinuity design. We find that a price increase causes a prompt and significant decline in gas consumption. The results also indicate that consumers respond more to recent past bills than to expected prices, which argues against an assumption of perfect awareness of complex price schedules by consumers.     

Doing business in Malaysia

The importance of international trade to the Malaysian economy can hardly be exaggerated. Trade represents a lifeline for the Malaysian economy. Export‐oriented industrialization in the 1990s converted the labor‐surplus economy into a labor‐deficit one and then back to a labor‐surplus one in 2000 and beyond. The incidence of poverty has fallen by half since the early 1980s. Trade has also contributed much to the structural transformation and modernization of the economy. Had Malaysia been a closed economy, Malaysia would have shared the same fate as some other less developed countries that remain economically backward. Its external trade policy has paved the way for greater inflows of foreign direct investment, as foreign direct investors are not so much interested in serving the small domestic market as serving the vast external market. The large inflows of foreign direct investment have conferred positive effects on the domestic economy. This has meant significant improvements in the overall living standards for the Malaysians. Internationalization has provided employment opportunities, thereby raising their living standards through higher and more stable earnings. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Combine harvesting

Mix the wisdom of internal and external networks and you might just come up with brilliant and unexpected solutions to apparently intractable problems. Julian Birkinshaw and Stuart Crainer report on how Roche Diagnostics is exploring an experimental approach to harvesting bright ideas.