Speculative attacks with multiple targets

This paper examines a global games model of speculative attacks in which speculators can choose to attack any one of a number of targets. In the canonical global games model of speculative attacks with a single target, it is well known that there exists a unique equilibrium that survives iterative deletion of dominated strategies, characterized by the threshold values of the private signal and the fundamentals. This paper shows that with two targets, there is again a unique, dominance-solvable equilibrium. In this equilibrium, the threshold value of signal for attacking a given currency is a function of the signal for the other target, and the threshold value of fundamentals that determines the outcome of attack on one currency is a function of the other target’s fundamentals. Under certain condition on the noise distribution, the result is shown to extend to environments with any \(N\) symmetric targets. This paper then presents a number of numerical examples and shows, among other results, that more accurate private signals have a decoupling effect on the outcomes of attack on different currencies.     

The analysis of research and development efficiency in Japanese companies in the field of fuel cells using patent data

Using patent data, a new quantitative analytical method categorizes the degree of integration of leading edge technologies in order to examine the current research & development (R&D) status and strategies of companies focusing in the fuel battery field, an area showing great potential as an alternative to fossil fuels. Specifically, this paper presents three types of categorization reflecting the International Patent Classification (IPC) of patent data, and introduces the concept of 'innovation positions', which is based on this categorization. Application purposes can be different between various industrial sectors, even within the same technological field; therefore, the progress status of R&D varies and that fact is reflected in innovation positions. Additionally, this paper makes clear that innovation positions reflect differences in companies' core competences, even in the same industry. Furthermore, by conducting an analysis based on F-terms, it has been shown that dissimilarities exist in the focus of companies in the technological development of elements, even for those with identical innovation positions. This analytical method provides an original approach to comprehend technological linkages and innovation.     

The Long Tail of the Auto Industry Life Cycle

This article explores how the industry life‐cycle theory, proposed by Abernathy and Utterback, can be reinterpreted from the viewpoint of product architecture dynamics. The “long tail” of the automobile industry life cycle, observed during the past several decades, is explained by an evolutionary framework in which a product's architecture is treated as an endogenous variable affected by customers' functional requirements, environmental‐technical constraints, and their changes. The present article explains how the existing industry life‐cycle model effectively explains the early history of automotive product‐process innovations, but that it fails to explain the “long tail” of the life cycle, and that an evolutionary approach of product architectures can be used to explain the architectural sequence and the long‐term trend of the increase in nonradical innovations. That is, the industry life‐cycle model certainly fits well with the actual pattern of product‐process innovations at the early phase of the automobile's development, between the 1880s (invention) through the 1920s (the end of the Model T) and into the 1960s, when product differentiation continued without significant product/process innovations (e.g., the Big Three's annual model change). But the question remains how this model can explain the rest of the industry's history (1970s to 2010s), which is characterized by “rapid incremental innovations,” or a “long tail of the life cycle,” with its upward trend of technological advancement rather than the end of innovations or the beginning of another industry life cycle (i.e., “dematurity”). The evolutionary framework of product architecture predicts that the macro architecture of a given product category (e.g., passenger cars) will be relatively integral when the functional requirements that customers expect, the constraints imposed by society and the government, and the physical‐technical limits inherent in the product are strong, and that it will be relatively modular when they are weaker. The dynamic architectural analysis starts from the Lancaster‐type analysis of a set of function‐price frontiers for a given product category (e.g., cars). Based on the design theories, it hypothesizes that the shape of function‐price frontiers are different between integral models and modular models. It then hypothesizes that price‐oriented customers tend to choose relatively modular products, whereas function‐oriented customers choose relatively integral products more often than not, other things being equal. Thus, the macro architecture of a given product can be determined depending on whether each architecture's price‐function frontier touches the price‐function preference curves of its customers. As for the future architecture of the car, its macro architecture, determined by markets and environments, will remain relatively integral and complex as long as it continues to be a fast‐moving heavy artifact in the public space, whereas its micro architecture, determined by engineers, will be somewhat mixed, as the engineers try to simplify and modularize the automobile design wherever the market and technology permit. The evolutionary framework of architectures also predicts that the architectural sequence inside the industry life cycle will differ by products (e.g., cars and computers) depending upon the dynamic patterns of technological advancement (e.g., shifts of the price‐function frontier) and market‐societal constraints (e.g., shifts of the price‐function preference curve).     

Team Roles and Hierarchic System in Group Discussion

Conventional systems for classifying team roles refer only to the function criterion and two categories, task and social; in addition, roles and behaviors are unspecialized, a one-to-one correspondence being assumed between them. These theoretical problems have resulted in overly fragmented roles as well as oversimplified categories. Therefore, this article aims to reveal essential roles and a unified system to classify them. In order to elucidate the team roles essential for discussion, a questionnaire survey was administered for Study 1, with the result that just ten discussant-roles were identified. For Study 2, in order to verify a classification system for the discussant-roles, participant groups were asked to discuss itineraries for an overnight group trip during the winter holiday. The results showed that a three-criterion model based on the deep roles is superior to the traditional model. In this hierarchical system, characteristic behaviors are expressed according to ten discussant-roles, which are divided into six categories, using a combination of three criteria. This system not only solves the theoretical issues but also contributes to improving members’ discussion behaviors.     

Fixed Point Theorems for Discontinuous Maps on a Non‐convex Domain

This paper introduces economists to some fixed point theorems for discontinuous mappings with non‐convex images on a non‐convex domain. These theorems have recently been developed based on a new approach by mathematical economists and mathematicians. The new method of proof is first transformed into a sort of metatheorem, which is then used to obtain a set of necessary and sufficient conditions for a map to have a fixed point. Some fixed point theorems for discontinuous maps are then explained in more concrete cases. The formulations are intended for easier applications towards economic models involving discontinuity as well as non‐convexity.     

Distributional effects of agricultural cooperatives in China: Exclusion of smallholders and potential gains on participation

This paper examines the treatment effects of the agricultural cooperative and publicly funded extension services on individual household economy, using data collected by the author from watermelon-producing farm households in rural Nanjing. The cooperative addressed in this study restricts the participation of small-scale farmers, implying that selection into the program must be taken into consideration for an accurate assessment of the treatment effect. The econometric analysis revealed that government extension services have a modest effect on farm income. In contrast, the treatment effect of the agricultural cooperative is robust and substantially large, accounting for nearly 70% of the pre-matching difference. This suggests that the agricultural cooperative system is an important avenue for farmers to improve their economic status. The treatment effect of the agricultural cooperative is highly heterogeneous; the economic benefits arising from the cooperative are significant only for small-scale farms. We can argue that a coexistence of smallholder exclusion and the treatment effect in favor of small-scale farms poses serious challenges to pro-poor agricultural growth in China.     

Impact of initial seeds on the growth of biotechnology startups: evidence from the U.S. and Japan

ABSTRACT

We assess the impact of initial seeds on the long-run growth of biotechnology startups, including the response of the capital market, in the U.S. and Japan. For this purpose, we collected a comprehensive dataset of the matched sample of listed firms from their foundations to the post-IPO period. We find that the quality of initial seeds predicts significantly both the level and the growth rate of the patent stock as well as those of the asset size of the U.S. startups, even controlling for their alliances and acquisitions, while it predicts only the level of the patent stock for the Japanese startups. Furthermore, the asset growth and the patent stock growth in turn account for the market value performances of the U.S. firms much more significantly than those of the Japanese firms. On the other hand, there are only small differences with respect to the time to IPO and the asset growth through the IPO. These results suggest that higher quality of initial seeds significantly enhanced long-run growth of biotechnology startups in the U.S. but not in Japan, and that the differences in fertility of the initial seeds and in efficiency of the capital market could significantly explain the difference.