Are Analysts’ Recommendations Informative? Intraday Evidence on the Impact of Time Stamp Delays

We demonstrate that time stamps reported in I/B/E/S for analysts’ recommendations released during trading hours are systematically delayed. Using newswire‐reported time stamps, we find 30‐minute returns of 1.83% (?2.10%) for upgrades (downgrades), but for this subset of recommendations we find corresponding returns of ?0.07% (?0.09%) using I/B/E/S‐reported time stamps. We also examine the information content of recommendations relative to management guidance and earnings announcements. Our evidence suggests that analysts’ recommendations are the most important information disclosure channel examined.     

‘So Long as I Take my Mobile’: Mobile Phones,Urban Life and Geographies of Young People's Safety

Mobile phone ownership has spread rapidly among young people in the UK. This article contributes to an expanding body of literature which is examining the consequences of this phenomenon for urban life. Our focus is the impact of mobile phones on young people's geographies, particularly their own and their parents’ fears about their safety in public spaces. Quantitative and qualitative findings are presented from two research projects in Gateshead, north‐east England on crime victimization and leisure injury risk for young people, in which the role of mobile phones in managing and negotiating safety emerged as significant. The article highlights the different ways in which young people and parents are using mobile phones for this purpose, and asks whether they are best viewed as technologies of surveillance or empowerment. We also raise questions about the efficacy of mobile phones in protecting young people from risk and fear, in particular examining the mobile as a new site of victimization. Throughout, we emphasize the social unevenness of the uses and impacts of new technologies, which is often underplayed in research. We conclude with the suggestion that although they offer some empowerment to young people in their use of public spaces and their negotiation of risk, mobile phones appear to be reshaping rather than reducing moral panics about young people's presence there. Au Royaume‐Uni, le téléphone mobile s’est répandu rapidement parmi les jeunes. Cet article s’ajoute aux documents en nombre croissant qui étudient les conséquences de ce phénomène sur la vie urbaine. Il s’attache à l’impact des mobiles sur la géographie des jeunes, notamment sur leurs craintes personnelles et celles de leurs parents quant à leur sécurité dans les espaces publics. Il présente des résultats quantitatifs et qualitatifs provenant de deux projets de recherches à Gateshead (nord‐est de l’Angleterre) sur le risque pour les jeunes d’être victimes d’un acte criminel et de se blesser durant un loisir, cas où les mobiles semblent jouer un rôle important pour gérer et négocier la sécurité. L’article met en lumière les différents modes d’utilisation des mobiles à cette fin, par les jeunes et les parents, en se demandant si ces téléphones sont d’abord considérés comme des technologies de surveillance ou de responsabilisation. Il interroge également l’efficacité des mobiles pour protéger les jeunes contre risques et craintes, notamment en envisageant ces téléphones comme nouveau terrain de victimisation. Dans son ensemble, ce travail souligne l’irrégularité sociale des usages et impacts des nouvelles technologies, souvent minimisée dans la recherche. La conclusion suggère que, même s’ils offrent une certaine responsabilisation aux jeunes dans leur utilisation des espaces publics et leur négociation du risque, les téléphones mobiles semblent remodeler, non réduire, les paniques morales liées à leur présence dans ces lieux.     

STATE WELFARE-REFORM IMPACTS: CONTENT AND ENFORCEMENT EFFECTS

The continuing debate over the cause of the precipitous 1994—1998 decline in welfare caseloads is fueled by the ambiguity of evaluation results that attempt to disentangle cyclical and programmatic effects. One reason for this uncertainty is the lack of homogeneity across jurisdictions in the content, timing, and enforcement of welfare-reform parameters. This paper attempts to incorporate interjurisdictional variation in program content and enforcement into the standard evaluation model. The results suggest that state initiatives do reduce Aid for Families with Dependent Children caseloads but that all of the aggregate impact derives from a few "tough" provisions that limit welfare access. Variation in local enforcement of exemption and participation rules are also shown to have significant caseload effects. (JEL 138)     

RELATIONSHIPS AMONG STRATEGIC COMMODITIES AND WITH FINANCIAL VARIABLES: A NEW LOOK

We examine the comovements among the prices of four strategic commodities that have long, adequate daily series: oil, gold, silver, and copper as a group. We also explore their causal relationships with two commodity-relevant macrofinancial variables: interest and exchange rates as an expanded group to shed some light on the prediction behaviors of those individual commodity prices relative to the selected financial variables. In the expanded group, the selected interest rate can provide a transmission link between commodity prices and the dollar exchange rate. The results and their policy implications are discussed at length . ( JEL C51, E27, Q43)     

TAXES,INCOME, AND RETIREMENT SAVINGS: DIFFERENCES BY PERMANENT AND TRANSITORY INCOME

This article examines the determinants of and benefits from saving for retirement in tax‐preferred accounts by permanent and transitory income levels. We find that higher incomes (both permanent and transitory) are associated with a greater probability to contribute and larger contributions. We also find that tax benefits for retirement savings increase strongly with income, although the increase is slightly smaller when taxpayers are ranked by their permanent (rather than current) income. In addition, we find that a large portion of the benefits from the Saver's Credit go to taxpayers who would not be eligible based on their permanent income. Finally, we find that recent tax changes (including the introduction of the Saver's Credit) significantly increased contributions among low‐income households, although the effect was centered among those with only transitorily low income. (JEL H24, H31, E21)