Multifactor Explanations of Asset Pricing Anomalies

Previous work shows that average returns on common stocks are related to firm characteristics like size, earnings/price, cash flow/price, book-to-market equity, past sales growth, long-term past return, and short-term past return. Because these patterns in average returns apparently are not explained by the CAPM, they are called anomalies. We find that, except for the continuation of short-term returns, the anomalies largely disappear in a three-factor model. Our results are consistent with rational ICAPM or APT asset pricing, but we also consider irrational pricing and data problems as possible explanations.     

The Information Value of the Stress Test

We investigate whether the “stress test,” the extraordinary examination of the 19 largest U.S. bank holding companies conducted by federal bank supervisors in 2009, produced useful information for the market. Using standard event study techniques, we find that the market had largely deciphered on its own which banks would have capital gaps before the stress test results were revealed, but that the market was informed by the size of the gap; given our proxy for the expected gap, banks with larger capital gaps experienced more negative abnormal returns. Our findings are consistent with the view that the stress tests produced valuable information about banks.     

Performance Measure Properties and Incentive System Design

We analyze effects of performance measure properties (controllable and uncontrollable risk, distortion, and manipulation) on incentive plan design, using data from auto dealership manager incentive systems. Dealerships put the most weight on measures that are “better” with respect to these properties. Additional measures are more likely to be used for a second or third bonus if they can mitigate distortion or manipulation in the first performance measure. Implicit incentives are used to provide ex post evaluation, to motivate the employee to use controllable risk on behalf of the firm, and to deter manipulation of performance measures. Overall, our results indicate that firms use incentive systems of multiple performance measures, incentive instruments, and implicit evaluation and rewards as a response to weaknesses in available performance measures.     

A Framework for Setting Retirement Savings Goals

The purpose of this paper is to develop a framework for calculating savings needed to meet retirement goals under a variety of alternative assumptions about the economic and institutional environment. A “base case” that incorporates a zero real rate of interest serves as a starting point; next, differences resulting from a positive interest rate are examined. The analysis is further modified to take into account the effects of inflation, the role of Individual Retirement Accounts (IRAs), and possible future changes in tax laws. Throughout, the goal is to evaluate how best to plan for a smooth, regular consumption level before and after retirement and to adjust savings programs for changes in one's situation or expectations. The framework provided herein is expected to be useful to consumer educators and financial counselors concerned with helping individuals to meet their retirement goals.     

Currency Returns, Intrinsic Value, and Institutional-Investor Flows

We decompose currency returns into (permanent) intrinsic‐value shocks and (transitory) expected‐return shocks. We explore interactions between these shocks, currency returns, and institutional‐investor currency flows. Intrinsic‐value shocks are: dwarfed by expected‐return shocks (yet currency returns overreact to them); unrelated to flows (although expected‐return shocks correlate with flows); and related positively to forecasted cumulated‐interest differentials. These results suggest flows are related to short‐term currency returns, while fundamentals better explain long‐term returns and values. They also rationalize the long‐observed poor performance of exchange‐rate models: by ignoring the distinction between permanent and transitory exchange‐rate changes, prior tests obscure the connection between currencies and fundamentals.     

The Local Consumer Information System: An Institution-To-Be?

This paper makes the case for the creation, testing and perfection of a new economic institution–a local consumer information system. The heart of the system would be a data bank to which the consumer could address questions and receive answers repeatedly regarding the local market. The purpose of the system would be to deliver relevant consumer information more efficiently. For the individual consumer this new institution would help identify his best buy variety of a product, quickly and at low cost. It would also tell him, again quickly and at low cost, from what local retailers and at what local prices this best buy variety might be purchased. This new institution would serve all consumers in a given community by lowering many prices, quality constant. By reproducing itself in different locales, as the product testing organizations have, it might be expected to multiply and serve consumers in many communities. The paper discusses the types of information to be provided, methods of information collection and dissemination, means of insuring accuracy and fairness and how it might be financed.