Default and Recovery Implicit in the Term Structure of Sovereign CDS Spreads

This paper explores the nature of default arrival and recovery implicit in the term structures of sovereign CDS spreads. We argue that term structures of spreads reveal not only the arrival rates of credit events ${(\lambda }^{?})$, but also the loss rates given credit events. Applying our framework to Mexico, Turkey, and Korea, we show that a single‐factor model with ${\lambda }^{?}$ following a lognormal process captures most of the variation in the term structures of spreads. The risk premiums associated with unpredictable variation in ${\lambda }^{?}$ are found to be economically significant and co‐vary importantly with several economic measures of global event risk, financial market volatility, and macroeconomic policy.     

PROMOTING INNOVATION AND THE DEPLOYMENT OF ADVANCED TELECOMMUNICATIONS SERVICES TO BUSINESSES

This paper examines the concomitant effects that competition, regulation, market characteristics, and corporate ownership have on the deployment of advanced telecommunications services (ATS) to business customers through the econometric analysis of a rich data set that identifies the competitive, regulatory, and economic climate for each incumbent's wire center in the United States. The authors conclude that local competition, inter-LATA (local access and transport area) approval by the Federal Communications Commission, and high unbundled network element price to embedded cost ratios have positive impacts on the deployment of ATS, while voluntary federal price cap regulation and location in a rural area have negative impacts. ( JEL L51, O32, M21)     

Safety‐Net Losses from Abandoning Glass–Steagall Restrictions

This paper evaluates the redistribution of gains surrounding regulatory relaxations in 1996 and 1997 and ultimate passage of the Financial Services Modernization Act (FSMA) of 1999. Gains in financial institution stocks may come from projected increases in efficiency, increases in the bargaining power of financial institutions, or greater access to the federal safety net. For customers seeking improved access to capital markets, gains in efficiency should result in increased benefits, but increases in bank bargaining power could increase funding costs and/or decrease capital market access. Customers may also lose as taxpayers who support the federal safety net. This paper finds evidence of potential taxpayer losses and increased bank bargaining power, especially vis‐à‐vis credit‐constrained customers for whom safety‐net subsidies are unlikely to be shifted forward. The stock prices of credit‐constrained customers declined during FSMA event windows and in event windows associated with regulatory relaxations.     

WHO COMPETES WITH WHOM? THE CASE OF DEPOSITORY INSTITUTIONS*

The willingness of consumers to substitute between banks and thrifts and between multimarket and single‐market institutions is of strong interest to policymakers, yet little empirical work exists in this area. We estimate a structural model of consumer choice of depository institutions using a broadly representative panel data set covering the U.S. from 1990–2001. Using a flexible framework, we uncover utility parameters that affect a consumer's institution choice and measure the degree of market segmentation for two institutional subgroups. Our estimated parameters, elasticities and policy experiments suggest limited substitutability between banks and thrifts and between multimarket and single‐market institutions, especially in urban markets.     

In-home videotex shopping: potential adopters and non-adopters

This study was designed to identify potential adopters and non-adopters of videotex shopping. Data (n =205) were collected with a questionnaire following demonstration of a typical use of actual videotex shopping. As compared to non-adopters, potential adopters of videotex shopping were more likely to be social shoppers, price conscious, and were less likely to enjoy catalogue shopping. Potential adopters were also more likely to have prior awareness of videotex, a positive attitude towards merchants/service of videotex shopping and overall videotex services. However, they felt that current or demonstrated videotex shopping information was inadequate. In addition, differences existed between potential adopters and non-adopters in some demographics, videotex service needs and almost all videotex shopping merchandise needs.     

The Role of Stress Arousal in the Dynamics of the Stressor-to-Illness Process among Accountants*

Abstract. This study investigates the Kahn et al. (1964) measure of job-related stressors, and the Everly et al. (1989) measure of stress (i.e., cognitive-affective) arousal to ascertain whether the scales are measuring two distinct constructs. Data gathered from a sample of 1,618 members of the American Institute of Certified Public Accountants are analyzed to measure the psychometric properties of both instruments. Results from internal consistency, exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses, and item analyses indicate that both scales are reliable measures and the two scales are measuring different constructs, This study also examines the mediating effect of stress arousal on the relationship between sources of job stress, and resultant coping behaviors and psychological stress symptoms by means of structural modeling analyses. The results indicate that stress arousal is indeed a significant mediator in the stressor-to-illness process. Résumé. Les auteurs analysent l'instrument de mesure utilisé par Kahn et al. (1964) pour évaluer les facteurs de stress liés au travail ainsi que la mesure de la manifestation (cognitive-affective) du stress proposée par Everly et al. (1989) pour confirmer si les échelles utilisées circonscrivent deux concepts distincts. Ils analysent les données colligées à partir d'un échantillon de 1 618 membres de l'American Institute of Certified Public Accountants afin d'évaluer les propriétés psychométriques des deux instruments de mesure. Les résultats tirés des analyses des facteurs de cohérence interne, des facteurs exploratoires et des facteurs de corroboration, ainsi que les analyses des éléments indiquent que les deux échelles de mesure sont fiables et qu'elles circonscrivent des concepts différents. Les auteurs examinent également l'effet de médiation de la manifestation du stress sur la relation entre les sources de stress au travail et les comportements d'adaptation qui en résultent et les symptômes de stress psychologique, au moyen d'analyses de modélisation des structures. Les résultats de l'étude indiquent que la manifestation du stress est, de fait, un médiateur d'importance dans le processus qui conduit du facteur de stress à la maladie.