New evidence on the dynamic wage curve for Western Germany: 1980–2004

Blanchflower and Oswald [Blanchflower, David G. and Oswald, Andrew J., 1994a, The Wage Curve, (Cambridge, MA, MIT Press), Blanchflower, David G. and Oswald, Andrew J., 1994b, Estimating a Wage Curve for Britain 1973–90, The Economic Journal 104, 1025–1043. Eine praktische Einführung, Nürnberg] reported that they have found an ‘empirical law of economics’ — the Wage Curve. Our paper reconsiders the western German Wage Curve using disaggregated regional data and is based on almost one million employees drawn from the Federal Employment Services of Germany over the period 1980–2004. We find that the wage equation is highly autoregressive but far from unit root. The unemployment elasticity is significant but relatively small: only between ? 0.02 and ? 0.04. We also check the sensitivity of this elasticity for different population groups (young versus old, men versus women, less educated versus highly educated, German native versus foreigner), confirming that it is stronger the weaker the bargaining power of the particular group.     

Explaining Mortality Dynamics

Abstract

Using data for six OECD countries over the period 1950–2006, this paper studies the impact of macroeconomic fluctuations and cause of death trends on mortality dynamics in the Lee-Carter mortality forecasting model. The key results of this study are the following: (1) Periods can be identified in which the Lee-Carter mortality index k_t correlates significantly with macroeconomic fluctuations. (2) A few causes of death such as diseases of the circulatory system, influenza and pneumonia, and diabetes mellitus account for a large fraction of the variations in the Lee-Carter mortality index k_t . (3) Most cause-specific mortality rates show pronounced trends over the last few decades. These trends change the composition of deaths and alter how total mortality reacts to external factors such as macroeconomic fluctuations.     

The determinants of West German exports of manufactures: An integrated demand and supply approach

Zusammenfassung Die Determinanten der westdeutschen Exporte von verarbeiteten Produkten. Eine Integration von Angebots- und Nachfragefaktoren. - Die Autoren entwickeln ein Modell, das das Gewinnmaximierungsverhalten der in offenen Volkswirtschaften operierenden Unternehmen ausdrücklich mikro?konomisch erkl?rt und setzen es ein, um zu zeigen, da? die westdeutschen Exporte und Exportpreise gut durch die inl?ndischen und ausl?ndischen Preise, die internationale Nachfrage, den inl?ndischen Kapitalstock und die Kosten erkl?rt werden k?nnen. Die dynamischen Versionen des Modells best?tigen, da? die westdeutschen Exporte von verarbeiteten Produkten, Gütern des Maschinenbaus und Automobilen schneller auf Ver?nderungen der internationalen Nachfrage und der Rentabilit?t im Exportgesch?ft reagieren als auf Ver?nderungen in der preislichen Wettbewerbsf?higkeit.

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Résumé Les déterminants de l’exportation des produits manufacturés allemands. Une intégration des facteurs de l'offre et de la demande. - Les auteurs construisent un modèle, dans lequel la maximation des profits par des firmes aux économies ouvertes est expliquée par des facteurs microéconomiques. Puis ils utilisent le modèle pour démontrer que les exportations et les prix d'exportation du RFA peuvent être bien expliquées par les prix étrangers et domestiques, la demande internationale, le stock de capital domestique et les co?ts. Les versions dynamiques du modèle confirment que les exportations des produits manufacturés, des produits de la construction mécanique et des automobiles réagissent plus vite aux changement dans la demande internationale et dans la rentabilité d'exportation qu’aux changements dans la compétiveté de prix.

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Resumen Las déterminantes de la exportaciones manufactureras de Alemania Occidental. Un enfoque integrado de oferta y demanda. - Utilizando un modelo derivado que considera explícitamente los fundamentos microeconómicos de las decisiones de maximizatión de ganancias de una empresa que opera en una economía abierta, se explican los movimientos de las exportaciones y de los precios de exportatión alemanes con los movimientos en los precios nacionales, precios extranjeros, la demanda mundial, el stock de capital national y los costos. Las versiones dinámicas del modelo confirman que las exportacíones manufactureras alemanas, en particular de productos de ingeniería mecánica y automotores, responden más rápidamente a cambios en la demanda mundial y la rentabilidad de las exportaciones que a cambios en la competitividad derivada del precio.

     

The Productivity Effects of Worker Mobility Between Heterogeneous Firms

We analyze the effect of worker inflows on establishments’ productivity, using German data. Previous studies for other countries have found positive effects of hiring workers from superior (more productive or higher paying) firms. Ranking establishments by their median wage, we find that inflows from inferior establishments seem to increase hiring establishments’ productivity. Further empirical analyses suggest our findings are due to a positive selection of such inflows from their sending establishments. These workers might have to find a better job match in order to advance their careers, an interpretation supported by the finding that the effect is driven by workers with short tenure at their previous employer. Our findings reflect the increasingly assortative pattern of worker mobility in Germany found in a related strand of literature.     

Factors driving aggregate mortality rates in postwar Germany

Using German data over the period 1956–2006, this study provides a comprehensive empirical analysis of factors driving aggregate mortality rates over time. It differs from previous contributions in this field by simultaneously considering an extensive set of macroeconomic, socioeconomic, and ecological factors as explanatory variables. Our regression analysis shows that sex- and age-specific mortality rates vary substantially in their response to external factors. Strongest associations are found with changes in real GDP, flu epidemics, and the two lifestyle variables—alcohol and cigarette consumption—in both univariate and multivariate setups. Further analysis indicates that these effects are primarily contemporary, whereas other indicators, such as weather conditions, exert lagged effects. We derive optimal multivariate models for every age group that provide a good fit to the observed variation in annual mortality rates, and thereby confirm the relevance of the identified factors.     

The Credibility of Hong Kong's Currency Board System: Looking Through the Prism of MS‐VAR Models with Time‐Varying Transition Probabilities

This paper employs a Markov regime‐switching VAR model to describe and analyse the time‐varying credibility of Hong Kong's currency board system. The endogenously estimated discrete regime shifts are made dependent on macroeconomic fundamentals. This enables us to determine which changes in macroeconomic variables can trigger switches between the low and high credibility regimes. We carry out extensive testing to search for the most appropriate specification of the Markov regime‐switching model. We find strong evidence of regime switching behaviour that portrays the time‐varying nature of credibility in the historical data.     

Macroeconomic News and Stock Returns in the United States and Germany

Abstract. Using daily data for the January 1997 to June 2002 period, we analyze similarities and differences in the impact of macroeconomic news on stock returns in the United States and Germany. We consider 27 different types of news for the United States and 12 different types of news for Germany. For the United States, we present evidence for asymmetric reactions of stock prices to news. In a boom (recession) period, bad (good) news on GDP growth and unemployment or lower (higher) than expected interest rates may be good news for stock prices. In the period under consideration there is little evidence for asymmetric effects in Germany. However, in the case of Germany, international news appears at least as important as domestic news. There is no evidence that US stock prices are influenced by German news. The analysis of bi-hourly data for Germany confirms these results.     

Best friend or broken tool? Exploring the co-existence of humans and artificial intelligence in the workplace ecosystem

Artificial intelligence (AI) has become an important topic in business literature and strategy talk. Yet, much of this literature is normative and conceptual in nature. How organizational members perceive AI and the job role changes that come with it is, so far, largely unknown territory for both HR scholars and practitioners. We sought to investigate the relationship between humans and AI and conducted an in-depth exploratory study into the co-existence of humans and two early-stage AI-solutions, one for “low-status” automation and another for “high-status”; augmentation. We suggest that different organizational groups may engage in distinctly different sensemaking processes regarding AI, an important insight for successful HRM strategies when AI is being introduced into the workplace. Moreover, contrary to recent conceptual work, our findings indicate that AI-enabled automation and augmentation solutions may not be detached from nor exist in tension with each other. They are deeply embedded in organizational processes and workflows for which people who co-exist with the technologies must take ownership. Our findings, in part, go against discussions on AI “taking over” jobs or deskilling humans. We describe a more nuanced version of reality fluctuating around the various ways different organizational groups encounter different AI-solutions in their daily work. Finally, our study warns against unconditional technological enthusiasm, managerial ignorance of the nature of work that employees undertake in different organizational groups, and a neglect of the time and effort required to successfully implement AI-solutions that affect not only the home organization but also members of the broader ecosystem.