Long-range scenario construction for technology assessment

Long-range scenario construction is an integral part of a technology assessment. Alternative future scenarios provide the socioeconomic context in which technological systems can be forecast and assessed. Therefore, scenarios must be constructed in order to meet the information needs of all other portions of the study. One scenario construction approach, designed to meet this need, consists of the following elements: emphasis on range and consistency, specifically with respect to the technology assessed, combination of judgment and discipline, gradual divergence, and top-down variable disaggregation. As illustrated in an application to aviation communications technology assessment, this approach provides relevant information to the other portions of the study. Thus the scenarios provide the backdrop upon which the remainder of the study rests.     

Export behavior of German SMEs in the Eurozone

The paper investigates the export behavior of German small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in response to the introduction of Euro and the subsequent fall in trade costs. Based on a testable prediction derived from Helpman et al. (American Economic Review 94:300–316, 2004) and Helpman (Journal of Economic Literature 44:589–630, 2006), the paper argues that the likelihood of SMEs to become an exporter increases after the monetary union. By using an empirical probit estimation technique, it is found that SMEs, and especially medium-sized enterprises, indeed benefit from cost reductions in entering into export markets. What is more, firms operating in furniture, electrical equipment, plastics, medical instruments, machinery and textiles are more likely to benefit from monetary union. These results are robust to using exchange rate volatility as a proxy for the cost reductions due to monetary union.     

中国农村人口趋势的脆弱性分析

[目的]通过对改革开放以来中国农村人口变化的历史趋势与轨迹过程分析,判断人口变化趋势给农村发展带来的脆弱性,从人口变化趋势方面提出提高农村发展可持续性建议。[方法]借助脆弱性分析方法,通过既有的长时间、多角度的统计数据,对中国农村人口的总体趋势、少年儿童组人口趋势、老年组人口趋势的脆弱性进行分析。[结果]从各个方面来看,农村人口的变化趋势都在使农村的脆弱性增强;少年儿童组人口的减少趋势造成了农村4个方面的脆弱性增强——未来发展动力更为缺乏、乡土文化传承困难、农村社会资本转型放缓、公共产品投入回报率低,其中公共产品的回报率低与少年儿童组人口的减少趋势互为因果地增强了农村的脆弱性;老年组人口大幅度增加趋势使农村发展活力下降的同时,与所需的养老公共产品供应不足问题,共同导致了当下劳动力的回流困难,加重了农村的脆弱性。[结论]应通过促进农村资源的资本化和市场化、引导公共产品投资的多样化、公共产品按需精准供应等多方面政策相结合,降低农村人口趋势所带来的脆弱性,增强农村发展的可持续性。