Regulatory foresight: Methodologies and selected applications

This paper on regulatory foresight addresses approaches which allow future fields for regulatory action to be identified. We follow a rather wide perception of regulation and include standards and standardisation as elements of the regulatory framework. The paper presents three methodologies appropriate for performing regulatory foresight. First, an approach is presented which makes use of science and technology indicators and enables the identification of possible fields which may cause challenges for the regulatory framework and the regulatory bodies. Second, survey approaches are displayed which enable regulatory bodies to identify future needs for regulations. Finally, the usability of the Delphi methodology is discussed and results of a Delphi survey in the telecommunication area are presented. The paper concludes with a comparative analysis of the three methodological approaches regarding their effectiveness to conduct regulatory foresight.     

Spatial dependencies and spatial drift in public transport seasonal ticket revenue data

When firms' customers are located in spatially dispersed areas, it can be difficult to manage service quality on a geographically small scale because the relative importance of service quality might vary spatially. Moreover, standard approaches discussed so far in the marketing science literature usually neglect spatial effects, such as spatial dependencies (spatial autocorrelation for example) and spatial drift (spatial non-stationarity). We propose a comprehensive approach based on spatial econometric methods that covers both issues. Based on the real company data on seasonal ticket revenue of a local public transport service company, we show that addressing such spatial effects of service data can improve management's ability to implement programs aimed at enhancing seasonal ticket revenue. In particular, the article shows how a spatial revenue response function might be specified.     

Job search incentives and job match quality

We examine the impacts of time-limited unemployment insurance (UI) and active labor market programs (ALMP) on the duration and outcome of job search in Norway. We use a comprehensive simultaneous equations model accounting for i) the duration of unemployment spells; ii) their outcomes, iii) subsequent employment stability; and iv) the earnings level associated with the first job. We find that time invested in job search pays off in form of higher earnings once a job match is formed. ALMP raises the probability of eventually finding a job as well as expected earnings, but at the cost of lengthening job search.     

Regional differences in small firm entry in manufacturing industries: Lower Saxony, 1979–1991 †

This paper is an empirical study of inter-regional and inter-temporal variations in entry of new firms using longitudinal data covering all manufacturing establishments in Lower Saxony between 1979 and 1991. Patterns of entry are reported for sixteen regions based on gross rates of entry (number of new firms) and entry intensities (shares of employees). An empirical model is applied to detect regional characteristics that are highly correlated with entry. Pooling of cross-section and time-series data allows for control of influences of varying macroeconomic conditions and unobserved regional characteristics that turned out to be important. Small firm entry tends to be positively related to high overall economic growth, and to be higher in regions where both the small firm employment share and the level of wealth are high while the wage rate is low. We find no evidence for a negative impact of the business tax rate or for a positive effect of regional subsidies.     

On the St. Petersburg Paradox

The classical St. Petersburg Paradox is discussed in terms of doubling strategies. It is claimed that what was originally thought of as a ''paradox'' can hardly be considered as very surprising today, but viewed in terms of doubling strategies, we get some results that look paradoxical, at least to the practically oriented investor.     

Green promotes the dirtiest: on the interaction between black and green quotas in energy markets

Tradable black (CO₂) and green (renewables) quotas gain in popularity and stringency within climate policies of many OECD countries. The overlapping regulation through both instruments, however, may have important unintended consequences. Based on theoretical analysis we show that a green quota imposed on top of a black quota promotes power production by the dirtiest technologies as compared to a black quota regime only.     

Regional economic impact of oil spills

This article demonstrates an approach of coupling an environmental model to I-O analysis which aims to quantify the regional economic impact of an environmental accident. The model is implemented with the data of a potential oil spill interacting with the salmon aquaculture industry in Northern Norway. The production loss in salmon aquaculture and the regional income impact is computed and discussed. The approach used in this article could be a model for estimating the regional socio-economic impact of environmental factors like water and air pollution.     

A Conflict Case Approach to Business Ethics

Departing from frequent use of moral conflict cases in business ethics teaching and research, the paper suggests an elaboration of a moral conflict approach within business ethics, both conceptually and philosophically. The conceptual elaboration borrows from social science conflict research terminology, while the philosophical elaboration presents casuistry as a kind of practical, inductive argumentation with a focus on paradigmatic examples.     

User-oriented product innovation - Some research findings

Successful product innovation requires information about user needs. The provision of such information is a question both of attitudes and methods. A number of leading companies in Europe, Japan and the U.S.A. demonstrate the importance of a market-oriented attitude and close contact with users. In-depth studies in Germany, Italy and Norway have revealed an array of tools that are available for the systematic assessment of existing and future needs.Most firms will benefit from a stronger market orientation. However, if one moves too far in this direction, societal needs may be neglected and technological opportunities missed. The aim should be a balanced orientation where the needs of all stakeholders are taken into consideration.