ECB monetary policy and commodity prices

We assess the impact of ECB monetary policy on global aggregate and sectoral commodity prices over 2001–2019. We employ an SVAR model and separately assess periods before and after the global financial crisis. Our key results indicate that contractionary monetary policy shocks have positive effects on commodity prices during both conventional and unconventional monetary policy periods, indicating the effectiveness of unconventional monetary policy tools. The largest impact is documented on energy (fuel) and food commodities. Our results also suggest that the effect of ECB monetary policy on commodity prices transmits through the exchange rate channel, which influences European market demand.     

Forecasting high-frequency excess stock returns via data analytics and machine learning

Borsa Istanbul introduced data analytics to present additional information about its market conditions. We examine whether this product can be utilized via various machine learning methods to predict intraday excess returns. Accordingly, these analytics provide significant prediction ratios above 50% with ideal profit ratios that can reach up to 33%. Among all the methods considered, XGBoost (logistic regression) performs better in predicting excess returns in the long-term analysis (short-term analysis). Results provide evidence for the benefits of both the analytics and the machine learning methods and raise further discussion on the semistrong market efficiency.     

The role of satisfaction in labor diaspora dynamics: An analysis of BREXIT effects

In diaspora research, people's international mobility is often understood as a response to pull-push forces on an economic macro-level or as part of diasporic waves. However, labor diaspora formations are also influenced by micro-level (i.e., individual perceptions) drivers related to work per se, such as satisfaction. This explorative qualitative study takes a novel angle and focuses on the role of Portuguese nurses’ satisfaction with the evaluation of the Brexit scenario and its effects on this labor diaspora's mobility and stability. The findings illustrate that satisfaction, although affected by uncertainty, mainly relates to perceived working conditions and legislation and the possibilities to communicate with locals and other diasporans. This paper provides suggestions for future research and contributes to the development of theory on staying and human stickiness, explaining the dynamics of exit and entry in (re-)migration decision making.     

Emojis to conversion on social media

Emojis have become popular in online marketing communications. Marketers use emojis to humanize brand voice and elicit an emotional response from target audiences. However, little is known about how emojis are perceived and what kind of reactions they evoke. Therefore, this study aims to verify whether exposure to emojis leads to an increased intention to purchase and whether the use of emojis impacts campaign effectiveness in a real-life environment. In a theory build-up process, we draw upon the Dual Coding Theory and emotional contagion concept and develop seven hypotheses. We performed two data collection studies to test the hypothesized relations. The first study is based on a questionnaire (N = 318), while the second is based on experimental design in a real-life business environment. Surprisingly, we found that using emojis had a negative effect on purchase intention, while the effect was positive when mediated by positive affect. Emojis increased the effectiveness of marketing campaigns for hedonic products and strongly impacted the return on advertising spent. The findings of this study have both theoretical and practical implications in the observed domains, particularly about the type of products emojis are most effective in promoting, gender differences, and real-life consumer behaviour. This is the first study to use an experimental design in a real-life scenario to capture the role of emojis on campaign effectiveness and decipher the differences between genders and their perceptions of emojis. Theoretical and practical implications together with future prospects are discussed.     

Theoretical underpinnings of consumers’ financial capability research

This paper investigates the multidisciplinary theoretical context of financial capability and provides a critical examination of 14 relevant theoretical frameworks. To this end, the paper defines financial capability and develops a new theoretical framework of financial capability termed the personal financial management system. Financial capability is defined as the capacity of consumers to undertake comprehensive financial activities and thereby achieve personal financial well-being. The exploration of financial capability includes the concepts of financial literacy and psychological financial capability, where the latter represents automatic and controlled mental processes. Recent advances in behavioural science have profoundly changed the realm of personal finances, and it is, therefore, essential to acknowledge the importance of the intuitive reasoning that shapes our financial decision making. As part of the financial management system's throughput, together with individual motivation and opportunity within the personal financial management system, financial capability forms financial behaviour. The framework identifies three groups of relevant antecedents of financial capability including sociodemographic factors, cognitive and affective factors and personality and values. By constructing a comprehensive theoretical model, this paper contributes to the literature by providing greater consistency in the definitions of capability and its related terms, encouraging academic discussion and affirming the much-needed directions for future research.     

How Wealthy are the Rich?

Underreporting and undersampling biases in top tail wealth, although widely acknowledged, have not been statistically quantified so far, essentially because they are not readily observable. Here we exploit the functional form of power law-like regimes in top tail wealth to derive analytical expressions for these biases, and use German microdata from a popular survey and rich list to illustrate that tiny differences in non-response rates lead to tail wealth estimates that differ by an order of magnitude, in our case ranging from 1 to 9 trillion euros. Underreporting seriously compounds the problem, and we find that the estimation of totals in scale-free systems oftentimes tends to be spurious. Our findings also suggest that recent debates on the existence of scale- or type-dependence in returns to wealth are ill-posed because the available data cannot discriminate between scale- or type-dependence, on one hand, and statistical biases, on the other hand. Yet both economic theory and mathematical formalism indicate that sampling and reporting biases are more plausible explanations for the observed data than scale- or type-dependence.     

Can corruption encourage clean technology transfer?

We study the impact of environmental regulation on the transfer of a clean technology where bureaucrats are needed for government intervention. In the absence of corruption, when environmental taxes are low, a technology transfer always takes place and it increases total outputs, but may lead to higher pollution levels. However, when corruption is possible, a firm with a dirty technology may choose to bribe a corruptible bureaucrat who will underreport the actual level of emissions, thereby hindering the transfer of clean technology. We show that a less strict anticorruption policy may lead to more bribing, but encourage technology transfers. Moreover, an environment-oriented government would set a deterrent environmental tax to reduce pollution, while an output-oriented government would set a minimum tax rate to eliminate corruption and induce technology transfers. However, a balanced government would tolerate corruption when the cost of bribing is low and the clean technology is sufficiently efficient.     

The ethical implications of collecting data in educational settings: discussion on the technology and engineering attitude scale (TEAS) and its psychometric validation for assessing a pre-engineering design program

International Journal of Technology and Design Education - K-12 Engineering Education has placed a lot of attention on students’ attitudes or predispositions towards science and technology....