Continuity Under a Different Name: The Outcome of Privatisation in Serbia

Normally, privatisation is seen as beneficial. This paper considers the case of Serbia – a latecomer in the matter – where privatisation was partly a result of exogenous pressures and where the process has been deemed a failure. In Serbia, a sizeable number of privatised firms were bought by bureaucrats and politicians and all firms were subjected to a period of supervision. We argue that the design of this process allowed rent-seekers to conserve their privileges through asset-stripping, which explains the failure. In order to do so, we perform an empirical analysis of the determinants of liquidation, merger and bankruptcy of privatised firms from 2002 to 2015. We construct a novel data set from primary sources, free of the ‘survivorship bias’ and containing proxies for various types of owners, indirect signs of asset-stripping strategy and a broad range of controls. Our results indicate that firms owned by politicians faced significantly higher risks of bankruptcy, especially after the end of supervision.     

Fiscal policy,government debt,and economic growth in the Kaleckian model of growth and distribution

This article presents the Kaleckian model of growth and distribution that sets a budget deficit ratio as an indicator of fiscal policy and examines the short- and long-run effects of an increase in budget deficits and a rise in income tax rates on the economy. The key short-run outcomes are as follows. First, expanded budget deficits have a positive effect on the rate of capacity utilization. Second, the tax rate for wage income does not affect the rate of capacity utilization, whereas the tax rate for capital income has a favorable impact on it. This result implies that raising the tax rate for capital income can be an important policy instrument for stimulating the economy. Third, we find that the economy exhibits a wage-led aggregate demand in the short run. The main long-run results are as follows. First, the effect of expanded budget deficits on the growth rate is ambiguous, since a higher debt burden negatively influences the rate of capacity utilization and hence economic growth, despite the increase in demand caused by government borrowing. A higher budget deficit ratio thus raises the growth rate only if a certain condition is satisfied. Second, the tax rate for capital income has a positive impact on the growth rate. Third, the economy shows a wage-led growth in the long run.     

Methods of Partial Hedging

In this article we survey methods of dealing with the following problem: A financial agent is trying to hedge a claim C, without having enough initial capital to perform a perfect (super) replication. In particular, we describe results for minimizing the expected loss of hedging the claim C both in complete and incomplete continuous-time financial market models, and for maximizing the probability of perfect hedge in complete markets and markets with partial information. In these cases, the optimal strategy is in the form of a binary option on C, depending on the Radon-Nikodym derivative of the equivalent martingale measure which is optimal for a corresponding dual problem. We also present results on dynamic measures for the risk associated with the liability C, defined as the supremum over different scenarios of the minimal expected loss of hedging C. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Cagan’s paradox and money demand in hyperinflation: Revisited at daily frequency

Using daily data the Cagan money demand is estimated and accepted for the most severe portion of Serbia’s 1992–1993 hyperinflation, i.e. its last 6 months. An implication is that the public adjusted daily throughout this extreme period. Moreover, the obtained semi-elasticity estimates are by far lower than those previously found using monthly data sets. Consequently, the daily estimates reject the longstanding Cagan’s paradox, based on monthly studies, by showing that the economy has been on the correct, increasing side of the Laffer curve almost through the end of hyperinflation. This strongly supports the view that hyperinflation is triggered and driven all way through its end by the government’s hunt for non-decreasing seigniorage. Daily adjustments of public in hyperinflation can account for the difference between the results obtained at daily and monthly frequencies, calling into question the latter. Some evidence is offered that the findings of this paper may hold for other hyperinflations.     

Applying jump-diffusion processes to liquidate and convert venture capital

This study attempts to apply real options and expand the model designed by Lin and Huang [Lin, T.T., Huang, Y.T.: J. Technol. Manage. 8(3), 59–78 (2003)], which helps venture capital (VC) companies to optimize project exit decisions. The expected discounted factor and a jump-diffusion process combine to assess the value of a start-up company, and determine the threshold of the exit timing of liquidation or convertibility for establishing the optimal disinvestment evaluation model for VC companies. When the project value is below V_L^*V_L^\ast, the VC company carries out liquidation, but when the project value exceeds V_C^*V_C^\ast, the VC company performs convertibility. The project value is ranging between (V_L ^*,V_C^*)\left({V_L ^\ast,V_C^\ast}\right), and the best choice is holding the decision and waiting to carry out the rights of liquidation and convertibility next time. Besides, this work attempts to identify the expected discounted time in terms of the investment time for VC companies.     

Introducing experiment in pedestrian behaviour and risk perception study at urban level crossing

Given the high risk of severe accidents at level crossings (LCs), this study examined legal and illegal crossings by pedestrians and cyclists at a high-traffic LC in Zagreb, Croatia. Survey data and field observations were collected to identify reasons for risky behaviour. Behaviour was observed under normal conditions and in the presence of various safety measures in order to identify measures that can reduce risky behaviour. Results show that the presence of police officer at the LC was most effective at reducing illegal crossings, while the presence of cameras contributes significantly as well, especially after safety educational campaign when illegal crossing decreases for 59.23%. We can assume that in future the improvement regarding human behaviour on LC could be made with cameras on LC and more frequent educational campaigns. This is the first reported use of field survey and video surveillance methods to analyse user behaviour at LCs in Croatia.     

Corporate financial soundness and its impact on firm performance: implications for corporate debt restructuring in Slovenia

This article studies the extent of corporate leverage and range of excessive debt of Slovenian firms during the recent financial crisis. Half of all firms (of those with some non-zero debt and at least one employee) are found to face an unsustainable debt-to-EBITDA leverage ratio beyond 4, accounting for almost 80% of total outstanding debt. Moreover, a good quarter of all firms experience debt-to-EBITDA ratios exceeding 10 and hold almost half of total aggregate net debt. We then examine how this financial distress affects firm performance in terms of productivity, employment, exports, investment and survival. We find that, while less important during the good times (pre-recession period), lack of firms’ financial soundness during the period of financial distress becomes a critical factor constraining firm performance. The extent of financial leverage and ability to service the outstanding debt are shown to inhibit firms’ productivity growth as well as the dynamics of exports, employment and investment. Micro and small firms are found to suffer relatively more than larger firms from high leverage in terms of export and employment performance during the recession period.     

Developing a financial conditions index for a post-transition country: the case of Croatia

The interconnection between financial and business cycles and the importance of surveillance over financial markets emphasise the need for the development of indicators that could trace financial conditions in a country. In this paper, we focus on developing a financial conditions index for a post-transition country – Croatia. Since financial conditions indices for post-transition markets differ from those for developed markets due to differences in the development of their financial systems and the availability of data, we show that financial conditions indices constructed for post-transition markets need to be tailored to the specifics of such markets.     

An empirical examination of consumer preferences for honey in Croatia

In past years, beekeeping as an agricultural sector has become more organized, but there is still a gap in knowledge in considering consumer preferences for honey. The aim of the research was to determine consumer preferences for honey and their attitudes towards the Protected Designation of Origin (PDO) label. Also, in the article is presented the current situation regarding the honey market and legislation of the PDO label at the EU and national levels. The result of the empirical research carried out on a sample of 1008 respondents showed that they mostly prefer a mild flavour and brighter colour of honey. According to the type, most of the respondents prefer acacia rather than floral and meadow honeys or other types of honey. The most common method of honey purchase is directly from the producers (75%). The results of the Principle Component Analysis (PCA) showed that the most important attributes are the intrinsic attributes of the honey and that the most common reasons for purchasing and consuming honey are for its health and medical benefits. The obtained results fill the gap in knowledge regarding consumer preferences for honey in the Croatian market and can be useful for the creation of new honey-marketing strategies for local beekeepers.     

The effectiveness of fiscal spending in Croatia,Slovenia and Serbia: the role of trade openness and public debt level

Various structural characteristics of economies, directly or indirectly, affect the transmission from government stimuli to economic activity and determine the size of fiscal multipliers. In this article, we expand the standard Blanchard–Perotti fiscal SVAR model by incorporating the public debt and trade openness variables to assess the influence of these structural determinants on the effectiveness of fiscal spending in three selected former Yugoslav countries – Slovenia, Croatia and Serbia. The results confirmed the main hypotheses, which state that public debt level and trade openness significantly affect the effectiveness of fiscal spending through the means of reduction in size of fiscal effects in all countries analysed. When comparing internationally, this reduction tends to be more evident in countries with a higher degree of average public debt level and trade openness.