The permanent income hypothesis,business cycles,and regime shifts: Evidence from eight countries

Summary We provide international evidence on the joint behavior of consumption and the real rate of interest and examine the rational expectations restrictions of the permanent income hypothesis. We extend the basic model to allow for independent effects of the stage of the business cycle or a regime shift after 1979. In our eight-country sample (using 1970s–1980s data) we find a small but internationally similar rate of intertemporal substitution once we allow for a regime shift affecting the average growth of consumption after 1979. The rational expectations restrictions are formally rejected, most prominently for the United Kingdom and Japan.We thank Ivo Arnold, Eduard Bomhoff, Fanz Palm, Peter Schotman, Carlo Winder, and anonymous referees for their comments and suggestions. All remaining errors are of course our own.     

Inflation Dynamics and Monetary Strategies: Evidence from Six Industrialized Countries

In this paper we address the issue whether a switch to inflation targeting can help build monetary policy credibility and can substitute for a track record of low inflation. To this end, we empirically evaluate the success of inflation targeting in Canada, New Zealand and the United Kingdom and investigate to what extent the joint dynamic processes of inflation and nominal interest rates in these three countries have experienced a structural break at the time of the regime switch to inflation targeting. The experience of Canada, New Zealand and the United Kingdom is matched with the United States, Australia and Germany. We find that the effectiveness of the direct inflation targeting approach to quickly increase low-inflation credibility so far is ambiguous and that this strategy is not clearly superior to intermediate monetary strategies.     

Future inflation and the information in international term structures

This paper extends previous work on the information content of the term structure of interest rates using a newly constructed dataset for the United States, Japan, Germany, Switzerland, France, Belgium and the Netherlands (1982–1991). Results significantly differ from Jorion and Mishkin (1991). Apparently, the relation between the term structure of interest rates and future inflation is highly period- and country-dependent. We provide new evidence that these results may be due to the inability of financial markets to accurately predict a term structure of inflation in combination with the conduct of monetary policy. This probably accounts for large variation in ex post real interest rate levels and the term structure of real interest rates. Consequently, it is unlikely that the term structure of nominal interest rates will serve as a good indicator of future inflationary developments.     

The Economic Value of Corporate Eco‐Efficiency

This study adds new insights to the long‐running corporate environmental‐financial performance debate by focusing on the concept of eco‐efficiency. Using a new database of eco‐efficiency scores, we analyse the relation between eco‐efficiency and financial performance from 1997 to 2004. We report that eco‐efficiency relates positively to operating performance and market value. Moreover, our results suggest that the market's valuation of environmental performance has been time variant, which may indicate that the market incorporates environmental information with a drift. Although environmental leaders initially did not sell at a premium relative to laggards, the valuation differential increased significantly over time. Our results have implications for company managers, who evidently do not have to overcome a tradeoff between eco‐efficiency and financial performance, and for investors, who can exploit environmental information for investment decisions.     

Betting on the EMS

Two speculative strategies within the European Monetary System are empirically evaluated. The potential profitability of speculating on a currency's devaluation at a realignment crucially depends on being able to predict timing and magnitude of the parity change. Such opportunity has been eliminated from the system since 1983. For the reverse strategy of borrowing low, investing high, the evidence since 1983 suggests significant profitable opportunities for the weaker EMS countries — Belgium, Denmark, France and Italy — unconditional on knowledge of the timing of realignments. We conclude that this is due to a peso problem type of premium.     

Selecting copulas for risk management

Copulas offer financial risk managers a powerful tool to model the dependence between the different elements of a portfolio and are preferable to the traditional, correlation-based approach. In this paper, we show the importance of selecting an accurate copula for risk management. We extend standard goodness-of-fit tests to copulas. Contrary to existing, indirect tests, these tests can be applied to any copula of any dimension and are based on a direct comparison of a given copula with observed data. For a portfolio consisting of stocks, bonds and real estate, these tests provide clear evidence in favor of the Student’s t copula, and reject both the correlation-based Gaussian copula and the extreme value-based Gumbel copula. In comparison with the Student’s t copula, we find that the Gaussian copula underestimates the probability of joint extreme downward movements, while the Gumbel copula overestimates this risk. Similarly we establish that the Gaussian copula is too optimistic on diversification benefits, while the Gumbel copula is too pessimistic. Moreover, these differences are significant.     

Private Equity and Shareholder Activism: Summary of the 2007 Annual Meeting Reports of the Royal Netherlands Economic Association

Summary This Communication is a summary of the 2007 Annual Meeting Reports of the Royal Netherlands Economic Association. It draws a few policy conclusions in relation to private equity, hedge funds and shareholder activism in the Netherlands. This richly varied collection of the 2007 reports and columns of the Royal Netherlands Economic Association adequately reflects the diversity of analyses and opinions on private equity, hedge funds and shareholder activism in the Dutch society. How the balance in corporate governance will be restored is something that cannot be determined precisely at this moment. However, the reports and columns in this collection contain many good and interesting recommendations that can serve as guidelines for academics and policymakers. We would like to thank the Board of the Koninklijke Vereniging voor de Staathuishoudkunde for the confidence they have placed in us as editors of the Annual Meeting Reports 2007 on ‘Private Equity and Shareholder Activism’. We would also like to thank the authors of the reports and columns for their excellent contributions to this collection. It is a great honour for us that so many renowned policymakers and scholars immediately showed themselves willing to lend their cooperation to the creation of this unique collection of reports and columns.     

Financial Market Competition: The Effects of Transparency

European and US financial markets are faced with increased competition for order flow. Fundamental in the competition process is the organization of the trading process, since this directly influences the performance and trading costs of those markets. In this paper we examine the effects of public quote disclosure and the disclosure of transaction information on market liquidity and price efficiency. Our results indicate a clear trade-off between efficiency and liquidity. These findings could explain why a variety of co-existing trading structures can be optimal among competitive financial markets.