Effects of multilateral and preferential trade policy reform in Africa: The case of Uganda

Abstract

This paper estimates the effects on production, trade and economic welfare of current trade policy regimes throughout the world on Uganda relative to other economies. This will be a benchmark against which to examine various multilateral and preferential trade policy scenarios that might emerge over the next decade as part of the WTO's Doha Round and from the expected move later this decade towards Economic Partnership Agreements with the European Union. The results suggest modest gains or worse for Uganda, in part because it already has low tariffs and ready preferential access to rich-country markets. Several important caveats to this type of analysis are stressed though, before drawing out some trade and policy implications for Uganda.     

On Why Agriculture Declines with Economic Growth

When economic growth is characterised by a slow rise in the demand for food and rapid growth in farm relative to non-farm productivity, it is understandable that agriculture in a closed economy declines in relative terms as that economy develops. But why should agriculture decline in virtually all open growing economies as well, including those able to retain a comparative advantage in agricultural products? A key part of the answer is that the demand for non-tradable goods tends to be income elastic, so resources are diverted to their production even in open economies.     

Implications for Indonesia of Asia’s Rise in the Global Economy

This article projects Indonesia's production and trade patterns to 2020 and 2030 in the course of global economic development under various growth and policy scenarios. We support our projections of the global economy by employing the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model and version 8.1 of the GTAP database, along with supplementary data from a range of sources. Our baseline projection assumes that trade-related policies do not change in each region, but that endowments and real GDP do change, at exogenously selected rates. We use this baseline and its assumptions to analyse how potential global changes may affect the Indonesian economy over this and the next decade. We then consider the potential impacts of three policy reforms by 2020: an increase in global rice exports, associated with the opening of Myanmar; the recently imposed export taxes in Indonesia on unprocessed primary products; and the implementation of Indonesia's new food law.     

The Changing Information Seeker: A Study of Attitudes Toward Product Test Reports–1970 and 1976

Systematic samples of subscribers to Consumer Reports were surveyed in 1970 and 1976 to obtain their evaluations of the information they had received. Responses are compared between the two years, stressing the environmental context of each measure. Attitudes toward characteristics of the information and satisfaction with Consumer Reports are found to be high in both years, but ratings are significantly less favorable in 1976. Implications for Consumers Union management, other policy-makers, and further research are discussed.     

TRADE PROTECTIONISM IN AUSTRALIA: ITS GROWTH AND DISMANTLING

Protection from import competition was a defining feature of the birth of the Australian federation in 1901. For the next 70 years, the extent of protection grew, and broadened from mainly tariffs to also involving import licencing after World War II. There was a one-off 25% across-the-board cut in tariffs in 1973 and some dismantling of agricultural subsidies, but that was followed by the re-imposition of import quotas for the most-protected manufactured goods. Then in the mid-1980s, a new reformist government began a long process of dismantling all protection as part of an overall economic reform program that also involved de-regulation, privatization and moving to a flexible exchange rate. The rewards included three decades of faster economic growth and an unprecedented rise in Australians’ living standards. This paper provides a history of economic thought on the pros and cons of protectionism for the small, distant, natural resource-rich Australian economy and a survey of the literature on the extent, effects and political economy reasons behind the growth of Australian protection and its eventual dismantling.     

The changing geography of world trade: Projections to 2030

Rapid economic growth in Asia (and some other emerging economies) has been shifting the global economic and industrial centres of gravity away from the north Atlantic, raising the importance of Asia in world trade, and boosting South–South trade. This paper examines how trade patterns are likely to change in the course of continuing economic growth and structural changes in Asia and the rest of the world over the next two decades. It does so by projecting a core baseline for the world economy from 2004 to 2030 and comparing it with alternative scenarios, including slower economic growth rates in the ‘North’, slower productivity growth in primary sectors, and prospective trade policy reforms in Developing Asia, without and with policy reforms also in the ‘North’ and in South–South trade. Projected impacts on international trade patterns, sectoral shares of GDP, ‘openness’ to trade, and potential welfare gains from reforms are highlighted, in addition to effects on bilateral trade patterns as summarized by intra- and extra-regional trade intensity and propensity indexes. The paper concludes with implications for regional and multilateral trade policy.     

Distorted Agricultural Incentives and Economic Development: Asia's Experience

Earnings from farming in many low‐income countries have been depressed by a pro‐urban bias in own‐country policies, as well as by governments of richer countries favouring their farmers with import barriers and subsidies. Both sets of policies reduce national and global economic welfare. The rapid development of many Asian emerging economies has been accompanied by a gradual reduction in their anti‐agricultural policies, but many distortions remain and some countries have moved from negative to positive assistance for farmers, following the earlier examples of first Japan and then Korea and Taiwan. Drawing on results from a new multi‐country research project, this paper examines the extent of these changes relative to those of other developing countries over the past five decades. It concludes by pointing to prospects for further policy reform in Asia.     

El factor ecológico: desglosando el crecimiento del empleo verde

Con datos de la encuesta de población activa del Reino Unido (2011–2014), se estima el número de empleos verdes en Escocia y su variación, utilizando un marco metodológico aplicable a cualquier región basado en la CIUO‐08 y en la O*NET. Los resultados apuntan a la importancia de utilizar definiciones de empleo verde que no se restrinjan a los nuevos empleos en determinadas industrias a fin de captar el impacto de la ecologización en el empleo en general. También indican la necesidad de prestar mayor atención analítica a las cuestiones de la calidad y del crecimiento del empleo verde en sentido amplio.     

CHINA, GMOS AND WORLD TRADE IN AGRICULTURAL AND TEXTILE PRODUCTS

Abstract.  China's rapid industrialization and recent accession to the WTO makes it difficult for the country to maintain self-sufficiency in agricultural products. Genetic modification technology could ease the situation, but is not without controversy. This paper focuses on the implication of GMO controversy for China. It explores the potential economic effects of China's not adopting versus adopting GMOs when some of its trading partners adopt that technology. The effects are shown to depend to a considerable extent on the trade policy stance taken in high-income countries that are opposed to GMOs, and/or on the liberalization of China's trade in textiles and apparel.     

Asia–Pacific food markets and trade in 2005: a global, economy–wide perspective

Rapid industrialization in East Asia, particularly China, is raising questions about who will feed the region in the next century and how Asia will be able to pay for its food imports. The paper first reviews existing food sector projections and then takes an economy–wide perspective using projections to 2005, based on the global CGE model known as GTAP. After showing the impact of implementing the Uruguay Round, the paper explores several alternative scenarios. A slowdown in farm productivity growth is shown to be costly to the world economy, as is slower economic growth in China. Failure to honour Uruguay Round obligations to open textile and clothing markets in OECD countries would reduce East Asia's industrialization and thereby slow its net imports of food. On the other hand, the trade reform that is likely to accompany China's (and hence Taiwan's) membership of the World Trade Organization (WTO) adds 30 per cent to estimated global gains from the Uruguay Round. Their WTO accession is projected to boost exports of manufactures and strengthen food import demand by not only China but also its densely populated neighbours with whom it trades intensively.