Characterization of Normal Distribution Related to Two Samples Based on Regression

Characterization of normal distribution related to two samples based on second conditional moments has been obtained. This characterization has been transformed to a characterization based on the UMVU estimators of the density function. These results are generalized to k samples from normal distributions. Finally applications of these characterization results to goodness-of-fit test are discussed.     

On the ambiguous economic freedom–inequality relationship

Previous research on the relationship between economic freedom and income inequality has produced mixed results. We provide a short survey of this literature, identifying potential causes for this empirical heterogeneity. Next, we replicate the results from two significant studies using six alternative measures of income inequality for an updated dataset of up to 112 countries over the period 1970–2010. Notably, we use the latest release of the Standardized World Income Inequality Dataset, which allows us to account for the uncertainty of the estimated Gini coefficients. We find that the results of previous studies are sensitive to the choice of country sample, time period and/or inequality measure used. We conclude with suggestions for future research in the area.     

Do professional forecasters behave as if they believed in the New Keynesian Phillips Curve for the euro area?

This paper finds that participants in the European Central Bank’s Survey of Professional Forecasters have submitted forecasts that are consistent with a (mostly forward-looking) empirical version of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve for the euro area. The estimation technique takes advantage of the panel nature of the Survey of Professional Forecasters’ dataset to exploit both its time series and cross-section dimensions, and to control for unobservable individual heterogeneity across forecasters. The estimation results suggest that euro-area inflation forecasts have reacted less to unemployment forecasts after the start of the financial crisis but another cost measure (energy inflation) remains significant. This finding is consistent with a flatter Phillips Curve in the euro area after 2007. However, the reasons suggested by the International Monetary Fund for this finding, namely a better anchoring of inflation expectations and increases in structural unemployment do not seem to find support in the survey data. Instead, the expectations for compensation per employee submitted by professional forecasters are consistent with the existence of downward real-wage rigidities in euro-area labour markets.     

HOW DID UNCONVENTIONAL MONETARY POLICY AFFECT ECONOMIC FORECASTS?

We study how unconventional monetary policy announcements affected professional forecasters' predictions of bond rates, gross domestic product growth and inflation using data from the monthly survey by the Wall Street Journal. We find that unconventional monetary policy (UMP) announcements moved predicted bond rates in the direction the Fed intended. UMP announcements had differential impacts on forecasters' predictions; they also tended to move growth and inflation predictions in directions opposite those the Fed intended due to Fed information effects. A policy implication of our study is that the Fed should communicate economic projections to the public separately from monetary policy announcements to mitigate Fed information effects. (JEL E52, E58)     

A quasi-maximum likelihood method for estimating the parameters of multivariate diffusions

A quasi-maximum likelihood procedure for estimating the parameters of multi-dimensional diffusions is developed in which the transitional density is a multivariate Gaussian density with first and second moments approximating the true moments of the unknown density. For affine drift and diffusion functions, the moments are exactly those of the true transitional density and for nonlinear drift and diffusion functions the approximation is extremely good and is as effective as alternative methods based on likelihood approximations. The estimation procedure generalises to models with latent factors. A conditioning procedure is developed that allows parameter estimation in the absence of proxies.     

Leadership quality and follower affect: A study of U.S. presidential candidates

Using the tripartite model of attitude structure as a conceptual basis, this article investigates voter attitudes toward presidential candidates, including cognitive and affective assessments of these leaders as well as behavioral intentions and voting behavior. Data collected from the seven most recent U.S. presidential elections were used to compare Democratic and Republican Party candidates who were successful in securing votes to those who were unsuccessful. Here, follower perceptions of leader intelligence, feelings of pride and hope, as well as feelings of fear and anger were found to be statistically different between the two groups. Additionally, regression analysis using follower assessments of candidates' leadership quality, as dependent upon certain perceptual traits of that leader, are presented. Candidates perceived to be higher in intelligence, considered to possess stronger degrees of inspirational quality, and judged more “likeable,” in terms of generating stronger degrees of positive follower affect and lower degrees of negative follower affect, are considered better quality leaders. Followers' perceptions of these traits are found to be key predictors of whether that follower will consider a leader to be of high quality.     

Analysis of Instantaneous and Early Failures in Weibull Distribution

There are many situations in life testing experiment where an item fail instantaneously and hence the observed lifetime is reported as zero. The items that fail prematurely are called early failures. We propose a modified Weibull distribution as a suitable model to represent such situations by mixture of a singular distribution at zero and a two parameter Weibull distribution. We obtain the maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters and their asymptotic distributions. The methods are illustrated on drying of woods under different experiments and schedules reported by Vanmann (Research report, 1991:2).     

Impact of culture on ‘partner selection criteria’ in East Asian international joint ventures

Selecting the right partner is important for the success of alliances and joint ventures. For international joint ventures (IJVs) from diverse cultures the partner selection process can become complicated. Prior studies have investigated the alliances and joint ventures to develop a set of objective criteria for evaluating potential partners. This paper reports the study of IJVs formed by Singapore firms in Peoples Republic of China and India. The intent was to develop a methodology for identifying partner selection criteria in a cross-cultural setting. The findings reveal that the partner selection process follows a different logic in Confucian societies. Trust has been established to be essential for developing enduring co-operative relationships. The paper explores the concept of trust in relation to commitment and control in the context of the Confucian culture. We discover that trust is critical to partner selection. Cultural differences do not significantly alter the partner selection criteria for Singapore firms. Results support the view that while Chinese may depend on networks for social solidarity, social trust does extends beyond the family and is necessary for harmonious and successful joint ventures.     

Economists' Opinions of Economists' Work

A bstract .   Economists' credibility has been waning in recent years. Critics usually cite the profession's preoccupation with abstract reasoning and its focus on seemingly irrelevant topics that hold little interest for individuals outside the discipline. While economic science has enormous potential for improving living standards, the profession's adverse reputation is indicative of a discipline seemingly void of any social contribution. This article presents the results of a recently conducted survey of professional economists. The survey was undertaken to ascertain economists' opinions of their own professional work, including the progress of economic research, its usefulness for society, and factors that determine the publication of that research.     

The Impact of Survey Methodology and Context on Central Tendency,Nonresponse and Associations of Subjective Indicators of Government Performance

A comparison is given of (ordinal) measures of trust in government institutions that were collected with the aim of facilitating comparisons between different modes and contexts of data collection. Statistical analyses reveal that the mode effect could amount upto a 10% change of item nonresponse and a 9% change of the level of trust, whereas the context effect could lead upto a 19% change of the bivariate associations of trust. The observed changes of both measures of central tendency and of associations affect conclusions of social scientific research in isolated studies, which implies that comparative studies are seriously hampered by bias related to mode and context, two sources of obscurity adding to the two other threats which are differences of sample source and differences of question phrasing.