U.S. House Prices over the Last 30 Years: Bubbles,Regime Shifts and Market (In)Efficiency

This paper studies U.S. house prices across 45 metropolitan areas from 1980 to 2012. It applies a version of the Gordon dividend discount model for long‐run “fundamentals” and uses Mean Group and Pooled Mean Group estimation to estimate long‐run and short‐run determinants of house prices. We find great similarity across cities in that the long‐run house prices are largely explained by the same fundamentals; the long‐run rent to price ratio is approximately 5% plus 0.75 times the real interest rate (which is on the order of 2%). However, adjustments to deviations from the fundamentals are slow, in the long‐run, closing the gap at a rate of around 10% per year. We find sharp differences in short‐run adjustments (momentum) away from the fundamentals across cities, and the differences are correlated with local supply elasticities (more momentum with lower elasticity). Analysis of residuals suggests strong cyclical deviations, which are mean‐reverting.     

Short Sales and Price Discovery in the Hong Kong Real Estate Market

Indirect real estate (IRE) returns are often shown to lead direct real estate (DRE) returns. Apart from differences in liquidity, transaction costs, and management skills, the DRE market is also less complete than the IRE market—when negative shocks arrive, one can only short IRE (e.g., real estate stocks or REITs), but not DRE. This study investigates if short sales in the IRE market convey any information to the DRE market. Based on high‐frequency (weekly) property price data in Hong Kong from 2000 to 2012, we find that short sales in the IRE market led DRE returns, even after controlling for the lagged IRE returns in a VAR model. This supports an information spillover mechanism in which the DRE market learns private information that is not reflected in IRE returns. The spillover effect, however, weakened after the recent global financial crisis because the increased uncertainty over the credibility of individual firms made short sales more reflective of firm‐specific information than real estate market fundamentals.     

广东生猪生产坝状与发展对策研究

广东是全国最大的猪肉消费大省,也是生猪生产大省。广东生猪生产的规模化程度和生产效率都发展迅速,但也存在在生猪数量安全、猪肉质量安全和环境压力等问题。本文通过对广东生猪生产现状、所存在的问题的分析,针对性地给出了发展广东生猪产业的相关建议。     

高层剪力墙结构问题的探析

高层剪力墙结构形式和布局要适度合理,需要按照“强剪弱弯”、“强柱弱梁”的总体建筑理念设计。可采用三维杆系的薄壁柱空间分析方法或墙组元的分析方法进行计算,但对墙肢长的剪力墙,应该用空间杆的墙组元程序进行校验。异形柱结构是多肢的,其延性较差,由于截面的特殊性,其各项承载能力也有较大差异。高层剪力墙结构通过恰当的布局、设计,达到高层建筑荷载力量均衡的目标。     

口服液中粗多糖提取方法的改进

为了考察改进苯酚-硫酸法测定保健品口服液中粗多糖提取方法的可行性,以某保健品口服液为样品,对采用苯酚-硫酸法测定粗多糖含量时的多糖的不同提取条件与测定进行一个较为详细、系统的研究。结果表明:样品经改进提取条件后测定,试验结果表明有良好的线性关系,精密度RSD值为0.69%,稳定性良好,平均加标回收率为101.0%。该方法改进后提高了该实验的精密度和准确度,重现性高,并使结果更加可靠和稳定。     

略论二元经济的实质与转化——基于信息和知识视角

二元经济是发展中国家在发展过程中最基本的经济特征.从信息和知识的角度看,任何经济系统、组织、个人都是信息和知识生产、收集、传递及利用的装置,二元经济形成的关键在于不同区域在信息和知识的生产、收集、传递及利用能力及效率上的差异.因此,二元经济如何发展和转换完全取决于该区域内与信息和知识利用相关能力的形成和发展.     

Environmental Governance of Enterprises and their Economic Upshot through Corporate Reputation and Customer Satisfaction

Drawing on resource‐advantage and signalling theories, we investigate two mechanisms, namely corporate reputation and customer satisfaction, by which the environmental governance of enterprises can benefit their economic performance. Based on secondary data from the 500 largest US enterprises compiled from multiple sources, our findings contribute to the literature by establishing the link between corporate reputation and green reputation. We also establish the economic performance paths of environmental governance via corporate reputation and customer satisfaction. This study expounds on why ‘green’ matters and identifies the performance roles of two corporate strategic resources extractable from the environmental governance of enterprises. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment     

The effects of rational and habitual factors on mode choice behaviors in a motorcycle-dependent region: Evidence from Taiwan

This paper aims to explore the effects of rational and habitual factors on mode choice behaviors in a motorcycle-dependent region. Both a discrete choice model and theory of planned behavior (TPB) are employed to examine mode choice behaviors. A sample was obtained from two major cities in Taiwan to examine the contextual effect of public transport development. The empirical results reveal that psychological (rational and habitual) factors have stronger influences on mode choice behaviors than socio-economic factors, and furthermore that habitual factors explain traveler mode choice behaviors better than rational ones. The contextual effect with regard to public transport development is found to be significant for motorcyclists' mode choice behaviors. The practical implications of the results of this study are discussed.     

江苏沿海地区城市化现状及存在问题浅析

2009年江苏沿海开发上升为国家战略。为了解该地区的发展态势,本文立足城市化视角,具体分析了该地区城市化现状及存在问题。通过客观考察,本研究发现该地区面临一些困境,包括城市化率偏低、城市经济薄弱、社会事业滞后、城市间分工合作不够协调等。不过,总体上江苏沿海面临的机遇依然多于挑战。