The Informational Role of Short Sellers: The Evidence from Short Sellers’ Reports on US‐Listed Chinese Firms

Using US‐listed Chinese firms as the setting, this paper studies a novel channel through which investors can acquire information about firms’ financial reporting quality, that is, the reports published voluntarily by short sellers. I find that short sellers tend to target firms that have financial reporting red flags and that exhibit ‘good’ operating performance and stock valuations. Targeted firms experience an average three‐day cumulative abnormal return (CAR) of ?6.4%, and ?13.6% for initial coverage of the firm, and the CARs are more negative when the reports allege more severe misconduct of the firms. Non‐targeted firms also experience losses in value following short seller reports, especially when they hire the same non‐Big 4 auditors as targeted firms and when their earnings quality is poor. In comparison, analysts fail to perform proper due diligence and are much less effective than short sellers in exposing misreporting risk in Chinese firms.     

论推理的权变理性基础与不同体系的自洽性——以"蜈蚣博弈"为讨论对象

一直以来,蜈蚣博弈的基于逻辑(逆推归纳法)的推导结果和试验实践的结果存在很大的偏离,以往学者从两个角度对其原因进行了研究探讨,即"数理纠正"(以Aumann(1988)为代表)和直接否定逆推归纳法的作用(以Binmore和Bernard Walliserr(1996)为代表).本文从一个新的角度--基于人的有限理性而提出的"权变理性"概念为基础,认为蜈蚣博弈的逻辑推导和试验实践,涉及两个独立的自洽的推理过程(绝对的理性和权变的理性),从这个角度出发揭示了蜈蚣博弈之中"悖论"存在的根本原因,并且对这两个独立的推理过程进行比较.同时文章涉及到推理过程中的自我实现效应的讨论,强调重视常识和细节在博弈之中所起到的作用.     

Do Neighbours Influence Value‐Added‐Tax Introduction? A Spatial Duration Analysis

The spatial survival models typically impose frailties, which characterize unobserved heterogeneity, to be spatially correlated. However, the spatial effect may not only exist in the unobserved errors, but it can also be present in the baseline hazards and the dependent variables. A new spatial survival model with these three possible spatial correlation structures is explored and used to investigate the implementation of value‐added tax (VAT) in 99 countries over the period 1970–2009. Estimation is performed by a Bayesian approach through the Markov chain Monte Carlo method. The estimation results suggest the presence of a significant spatial correlation among the VAT introductions of neighbouring countries.     

高校教师亚健康状态及主观因素分析

目前,健康已成为公众普遍关注的热点和焦点,健康的重要性正被越来越多的人所认识。高校教师是社会人才培养者,是国家最宝贵的人力资本,他们的健康问题已成为制约教师自身和高校协调发展的重要因素之一。引发亚健康状态的原因是复杂的,但教师自身的心理调节能力、行为生活方式、人际关系、缺乏体育锻炼等因素是造成亚健康状态的重要因素。正确认识亚健康状态以及形成的因素,方可进行有效预防和治疗。     

推进校企合作,提高办学质量

校企合作是实现培养高素质技能人才的关键环节,要广泛的开展校企合作,充分发挥校企的潜力,就必须进一步解放思想,进一步提高认识,政府部门要充分发挥自己的组织、协调、统筹优势,进一步完善相关的法律、制度,为校企合作的良性发展创造良好的外部环境,为提高办学质量打下坚实的基础。     

Application of Fuzzy-AHP method in the evaluation of logistics capability in e-commerce environment

In order to solve the complex problem of evaluation of logistics capability in e-commerce environment, an index system model of logistics capability is established based on the method of Fuzzy-AHP in this paper. The results show that the method of Fuzzy-AHP is a powerful and flexible multi-criteria decision-making tool for dealing with complex problems where both qualitative and quantitative aspects need to be considered, and the human preference model is uncertain and decision-makers are reluctant or unable to assign exact numerical values to the comparison judgments. The evaluation model of logistics capability based on method of Fuzzy-AHP can help to make an effective decision in the evaluation of logistics capability. By this way we can effectively deal with the uncertainty and vagueness in the evaluation process of logistics capability. Logistics companies can diagnose their own weaknesses in the area of logistics and enhance their competitiveness.     

米东区供热系统中推广应用节水节电技术

乌鲁木齐市米东区根据集中供热区域锅炉房耗水量大的特点,经过多年实验,探索出一种锅炉房的节水节电新技术。经过多年的运行证明具有较好的环境效益和经济效益。     

评《国际经济比较中量值统一的价值尺度——剖析联合国ICP方法的缺陷》一文需商榷或探讨之处

对《国际经济比较中量值统一的价值尺度——剖析联合国ICP方法的缺陷》一文中有关F法、GK法论述和推理的不妥之处作了评论,重点探讨了F法几何平均的意义及其可传递性的解决以及GK法的思想实质问题。此外,文章对丛文核心思想IVC法与ICP的GK法作了深入比较。     

“标杆示范法”在企业思想政治工作中的应用探索

标杆示范法,是对集体及个人的经验、好的做法进行梳理,在梳理的同时归纳成一系列比较高的标准作为标杆,然后通过多种途径、利用各种有效手段进行示范、推广和学习,使这种高标准由某一个点渗透到更多的面,最终带动整个组织提高管理水平。对＂标杆示范法＂在国有企业的党支部建设、班组建设、员工队伍建设等思想政治工作领域的应用,形成有效的定标、对标、践标、标准化工作的思想政治工作流程进行探索和阐述。     

聚合信用风险模型的改进和研究

近年来的研究发现,违约损失率的分布呈现一种双峰特征。文章对传统聚合信用风险模型进行改进,用具有双峰特征的双beta分布来刻画违约损失率的变化,给出全部贷款组合信用风险概率生成函数的解析式,利用数值模拟的结果验证了模型的有效性。