Stochastic search variable selection in vector error correction models with an application to a model of the UK macroeconomy

This paper develops methods for stochastic search variable selection (currently popular with regression and vector autoregressive models) for vector error correction models where there are many possible restrictions on the cointegration space. We show how this allows the researcher to begin with a single unrestricted model and either do model selection or model averaging in an automatic and computationally efficient manner. We apply our methods to a large UK macroeconomic model. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Parent cultural control of foreign subsidiaries through organizational acculturation: a longitudinal study

Organizational acculturation refers to changes in the work values of host-country employees in foreign subsidiaries. Although many multinational corporations practise cultural control of global operations, organizational acculturation has attracted very little academic research. In the present study, the subjects are Hong Kong Chinese managers employed in subsidiaries of multinational corporations from a European country. Longitudinal research was conducted over three years among an 'acculturation' panel, a control panel and a benchmark panel. The findings showed that organizational acculturation may have occurred in some of the work values measured. Implications of these findings for international firms are discussed in detail.     

Economic analysis of different options in integrated pest and soil fertility management in maize systems of Western Kenya

The major biotic constraints to the production of maize, the major staple food in Western Kenya, are field pests such as Striga and stem borers, and low soil fertility. To counter these constraints, new cropping systems have been developed, including “push‐pull,” rotations with promiscuous soybean varieties and green manure crops, and imidazolinone resistant‐ (IR‐) maize. To analyze the technical and economic performance of these technologies, both with and without fertilizer, on‐farm researcher‐managed long‐term trials were implemented over six seasons in two sites each in Vihiga and Siaya districts of Western Kenya. The economic results, based on marginal analysis using a multioutput, multiperiod model, show that the new cropping systems with fodder intercropping (push‐pull) or soybean rotations were highly profitable. Push‐pull is more profitable but requires a relatively high initial investment cost. Green manure rotation, IR‐maize, and fertilizer all increased yields, but these investments were generally not justified by their increased revenue. We argue that research on rotation and cropping systems to tackle pest and soil fertility problems in Africa deserve more attention. This will require increased collaboration between agronomists and economists to set up long‐term experiments with new cropping systems to develop proper economic models.     

Contracting with Private Knowledge of Production Capacity

We analyze the design of procurement contracts when the supplier is privately informed about both his innate production capacity (K) and his innate unit cost of production. We identify conditions under which the supplier will strategically employ an inefficient production technology to expand output above K. We also show that when the buyer employs the simple fixed‐price cost‐reimbursement (FPCR) contracts in the setting examined by Rogerson (2003), the supplier has no incentive to exaggerate K. Furthermore, the buyer can secure with FPCR contracts at least 75% of the surplus she secures with fully optimal contracts.     

Business failure in an age of globalisation: Interpreting the rise and fall of the LG project in Wales, 1995–2006

Abstract

In 1996, the South Korean conglomerate LG announced a £1.67 billion investment in Wales to manufacture consumer electronics and semiconductors. The project was to be Europe’s largest inward investment project, and LG was offered the UK Government’s most generous grants. However, the semiconductor plant was built but never entered production, while the consumer electronics facility closed in stages up to 2006. This article responds to calls for a ‘new business history’ by using the ill-fated investment as a case study of business failure, arguing that narrow firm-specific factors do not fully explain LG’s failure in Wales. The article finds instead that analysis of distorted institutional environments in South Korea and Wales, linked to rent-seeking behaviour by LG, provides a fuller answer.     

Exports and Productivity Selection Effects for Dutch Firms

The paper tests whether recent theories of international trade with heterogeneous firms can explain the export patterns in Dutch firm- and plant- level data in manufacturing and services. Recent trade models with heterogeneous firms predict that the export decision of firms is affected by sunk entry costs in foreign markets, with only the most productive firms self-selecting into exports. We test a latent variable model of the export decision by probit regressions and standard OLS panel regressions. Our results support the self-selection prediction. The process further appears to be conditioned by scale effects, market structure and multinational affiliation. Regarding alternative explanations, we do not find evidence for the learning-by-exporting hypothesis, even when controlling for the firm’s distance to the international productivity frontier.     

Designing optimal gain sharing plans to promote energy conservation

We analyze the optimal design of gain sharing plans to promote energy conservation. We show how the optimal plan varies as industry conditions and the regulator??s information change. We demonstrate the importance of allowing the energy supplier a choice among plans, some of which offer the prospect of both pronounced financial gains for superior performance and substantial losses for inferior performance.     

DOMESTIC AND INTERNATIONAL INNOVATION PARTNERSHIPS: DO THEY MATTER FOR INNOVATION OUTCOMES OF SOUTH AFRICAN FIRMS?

This paper studies the impact of the diversity of domestic and international innovation partnerships on the innovation outcomes of South African firms. A number of competing hypotheses are formulated and tested empirically using a sample of South African firms in manufacturing and services by applying Ordinary Least Squares regression analyses. Results show that having an innovation partnership, particularly an international partnership, is beneficial to innovation outcomes. However, it also emerges that too diverse a set of international partnerships is detrimental to innovation outcomes. The paper concludes with a discussion and a number of proposals for future research.