Finance,investment and innovation: A theoretical and empirical comparative analysis

The paper compares the relative efficiency of country models in the relationship between finance and investments. Results, confirmed under three different panel data estimates (Arellano-Bond GMM method, random and fixed effect estimates) suggest that: i) the UK thick market reduces informational asymmetries for large firms and for those firms providing good signals to shareholders; ii) the Japanese vertical (between firms and banks) integration and horizontal (among firms) integration almost eliminates financial constraints (the horizontal integration effect) and equates agency costs across firms (the vertical integration effect). These results are consistent with the short-termist hypothesis which assumes that the Japanese economic system can process information more efficiently reducing managerial myopic behaviour and thereby determining positive effects on long term growth.     

Evaluating the FLQ and AFLQ formulae for estimating regional input coefficients: empirical evidence for the province of Córdoba,Argentina

This paper uses survey-based data of the Argentinian province of Córdoba to conduct an empirical test of the performance of the Flegg's location quotient (FLQ) and augmented FLQ (AFLQ) formulae for estimating regional input coefficients. A comparison is made with conventional methods based on location quotients. The possibility of using prior information about the extent of self-sufficiency of particular sectors is explored. The empirical work employs a range of statistical criteria with contrasting properties, and examines performance in terms of each method's ability to estimate regional input coefficients, output multipliers and imports. Particular attention is paid to the problem of choosing a value for the unknown parameter δ in the FLQ and AFLQ formulae. These formulae are found to give the best overall results of the non-survey methods considered in the paper. However, the AFLQ typically produces slightly more accurate results than the FLQ, in line with the findings of previous studies.     

Theoretical considerations on the proposed of recovery of purchasing power of the minimum wage in Mexico

Regarding the recent proposal made by the Mexico City Government about the recovery of the purchasing power of the minimum wage, some reflections on the theories of production and distribution are proposed. We first review the seminal paper written by Cobb and Douglas (1928). Some obstacles in measuring the marginal factor products, and a pair of inconsistencies between the theories of production and distribution on the one hand, and some exercises of quantifying “productivities” on the other hand, are presented. Finally, a model of imperfect competition, which displays the dispute over income between economic agents, is included. One conclusion is that income distribution does not follow a simple rule, but a bargaining process based on market power in a historical context that provides inertia and in which institutions play a key role.     

Intellectual capital and value creation in the production and assembly of vehicles and auto-parts sector in Brazil： A panel data analysis

This work investigates the relationship between intellectual capital and value creation in the sector of production and assembly of vehicles and auto-parts in Brazil. Through the access of the database from the annual industrial research conducted by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics, we gathered 865 observations, from 2000 to 2006, of public and private Brazilian companies with more than 100 employees. The database allows the estimate of relevant aggregated variables such as national accounts, gross domestic product, intermediate consumption, as well as propitiates a sectorial study of business strategies and performance, including value added by individual companies. In particular, in this study we use data on variables associated to intellectual capital. To achieve the goal of the study, we consider intellectual capital as defined by Pulic （2000, 2002）, including human capital and structural capital. For the analysis of business performance, we used Pulic＇s VAIC （Value Added Intellectual Cofficient） index as a measure of efficiency of the employed financial and intellectual capital. Regression models were run to verify the relationship among the efficiency in the use of intellectual capital and the profitability of Brazilian companies. The gross income, calculated as before selling, general and administrative expenses, depreciation expenses, amortization and interest expenses, was used as measure of the flows of value creation and the profitability was measured by the gross income to the total assets of the companies. Considering the constructs defined by Pulic （2000, 2002）, we tested, for the Brazilian sector of Production and Assembly of Vehicles and Auto-parts, the following hypotheses： （l） there is a positive relationship between value creation and intellectual capital, （2） there is a positive relationship between value creation and stock of intellectual capital, （3） there is a positive relationship between value creation and efficiency of the employed capital, （4） there is a positive relationship between value creation and efficiency of the human capital, （5） there is a positive relationship between value creation and efficiency of the structural capital. The results of the study, obtained through panel data analysis and through the use static and dynamic models, support the hypotheses that the intellectual capital of the companies, in its flow and stock dimensions, is positively and significantly related to value creation.     

HETEROGENEOUS BORROWERS IN QUANTITATIVE MODELS OF SOVEREIGN DEFAULT*

We extend the model used in recent quantitative studies of sovereign default, allowing policymakers of different types to stochastically alternate in power. We show that a default episode may be triggered by a change in the type of policymaker in office, and that such a default is likely to occur only if there is enough political stability and if policymakers encounter poor economic conditions. Under high political stability, political turnover enables the model to generate a weaker correlation between economic conditions and default decisions, a higher and more volatile spread, and lower borrowing levels after a default episode.     

Investment–cash flow sensitivities,credit rationing and financing constraints in small and medium-sized firms

The controversy on whether investment–cash flow sensitivity is a good indicator of financing constraints is still unsolved. We apply a comprehensive approach by cross-validating our analysis with both balance sheet and qualitative data on self-declared credit rationing and financing constraints on a sample of mainly small and medium-sized firms. Our qualitative information shows that (self-declared) credit rationing is (weakly) related to both traditional a priori factors—such as firm size, age and location—and lenders’ rational decisions taken on the basis of their credit risk models. We use the qualitative information on firms which were denied (additional) credit to provide evidence relevant to the investment–cash flow sensitivity debate. The evidence shows that self-declared credit rationing significantly discriminates between firms which possess or not such sensitivity, while a priori criteria do not. The same result does not apply when we consider the wider group of financially constrained firms (which do not seem to have a higher investment–cash flow sensitivity), supporting the more recent empirical evidence in this direction.     

A Multi-Scale System of Macroeconometric Models: the Inforum Approach

The recent global crisis affected output, but the decline in international trade was even sharper, almost twice as big, so that in the literature it is referred as the Great Trade Collapse. Trade flows have transmitted the crisis through the world economy where international trade runs through much more intricate networks than in the past, involving a greater number of countries, firms, and products. All these relevant economic issues require a clear understanding of the possible positive and negative effects not only on the economy as a whole and on aggregate macroeconomic variables but especially on specific industries and commodities. This type of quantitative analysis can be pursued with several analytical tools and data. Macroeconometric models have a long-standing and remarkable tradition as a tool for analyzing the international transmission mechanism of shocks and policies and for forecasting their effects. In this paper, we present the INFORUM international linking system of models that includes a Bilateral Trade Model (BTM) and a set of multisectoral country models. The INFORUM international system of models is characterised by a detailed industry and commodity classification and the use of econometric equations for estimating the behaviour of economic variables and of bilateral import shares. Moreover, when the complete international system of models is linked through the bilateral trade model, simulation results include feedback effects from country models to all economies in the system through bilateral trade flows. Overall, this multi-scale system of models captures the heterogeneity across industries and countries and produces significant information for economic policy design.     

The Effects of Monetary Policy in the Euro Area

This paper presents evidence on the monetary transmission processin the euro area, based on macroeconomic data and on micro dataon banks. According to the estimations of macro vector autoregressionand macroeconometric models, a monetary policy tightening significantlyreduces output and—after a time lag—also prices.The effect on output is temporary, while that on prices is permanent.Clear patterns of significant asymmetries in the monetary policyeffects across countries do not emerge. The estimations basedon micro data on banks show that the main factor that determinesthe average bank's response to monetary policy is its degreeof liquidity: the lower its share of liquid assets in totalassets, the more strongly does a bank reduce its lending inresponse to a monetary tightening. Bank size does not emergeas an important factor for a bank's reaction to monetary policy.These results hold for virtually all member countries of theEuropean Monetary Union, despite the differences in their bankingsystems.     

Innovation efforts and performances of Brazilian firms

We analyze the relationship between innovation and firms' performance in Brazil using a comprehensive database that cross-references innovation information by PINTEC (Technological Innovation Research) of the IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics) and financial information from Serasa and Gazeta Mercantil. Results from the structural equation modeling suggest that variables associating with investments in innovation, which are connected to the innovative effort of a company, do not explain financial performance significantly.     

Trade and Innovation in Services: Evidence from a Developing Economy

Studies on innovation and international trade have traditionally focused on manufacturing because neither was seen as important for services. Moreover, the few existing studies on services focus only on industrial countries, even though in many developing countries services are already the largest sector in the economy and an important determinant of overall productivity growth. Using a recent firm‐level innovation survey for Chile to compare the manufacturing and ‘tradable’ services sector, this paper reveals some novel patterns. First, even though services firms have on average a much lower propensity to export than manufacturing firms, services exports are less dominated by large firms and tend to be more skill intensive than manufacturing exports. Second, services firms appear to be as innovative as – and in some cases more innovative than – manufacturing firms, in terms of both inputs and outputs of ‘technological’ innovative activity, even though services innovations more often take a ‘non‐technological’ form. Third, services exporters (like manufacturing exporters) tend to be significantly more innovative than non‐exporters, with a wider gap for innovations close to the global technological frontier. These findings suggest that the growing faith in services as a source of both trade and innovative dynamism may not be misplaced.