Shibor与货币市场利率体系的关系初探

Shibor的推出对于完善货币市场利率体系具有很重要的作用。文章探讨了自Shibor推出以来,其与货币市场其他利率之间的关系;重点采用相关性分析、协整检验、因果检验等数量分析方法,确定了决定Shibor利率水平变动的货币市场因素,通过建立模型初步研究了这些因素对Shibor利率曲线结构的影响,并提出相应建议。     

近期美元逆市走强的原因分析

近期,在全球金融危机、经济衰退的的背景下,美元逆市走强。该文对其背后的原因进行了多层次的分析,认为从表面上看,美元逆市走强是美元需求增速高于供给增速的结果,深层原因则基于美元的国际地位和美国较强的政治经济军事实力,也可能有一定的战略意图。因此,预计近期美元将维持强势,但在恐慌稳定之后可能转为下跌。     

从美国次贷危机看金融创新的风险管理

该文指出美国次贷危机的根源是对金融创新的风险管理不到位,文章分析了金融创新的特征以及市场参与者对金融创新的风险意识淡薄的现状,指出美国次贷危机的教训在于金融机构应充分重视金融创新中的风险管理,而监管机构对金融创新的风险监管则是业务发展和市场稳定的有力保障;最后文章对如何加强我国金融创新的风险管理提出相关的意见和建议。     

以Shibor为基准强化金融产品利率市场化

该文分析认为市场化基准利率的缺失已成为利率市场化产品定价的主要困难之一,认为将Shibor建成我国市场化的基准利率体系是人民币利率市场化必由之路,同时将大幅完善产品的市场化定价机制;而通过建立以Shibor为基础的内部资金转移定价体系,可将市场信号传导至业务端,在现行条件下能使管制利率下的存贷款利率部分实现与市场化利率的接轨。     

Familial Risk for Exceptional Longevity

One of the most glaring deficiencies in the current assessment of mortality risk is the lack of information concerning the impact of familial longevity. In this article we update estimates of sibling relative risk of living to extreme ages using data from more than 1700 sibships, and we begin to examine the trend for heritability for different birth-year cohorts. We also build a network model that can be used to compute the increased chance for exceptional longevity of a subject, conditional on his or her family history of longevity. The network includes familial longevity from three generations and can be used to understand the effects of paternal and maternal longevity on an individual's chance to live to an extreme age.     

Modern variety adoption and risk management in drought prone areas: insights from the sorghum farmers of eastern Ethiopia

Adoption rates of improved or modern varieties (MV) of sorghum in eastern Ethiopia are generally low. Although these MV may represent an effective means of coping with droughts, given their early maturing traits, landraces could prove to be more drought‐tolerant and better adapted to marginal production conditions. Whether MV adoption is a risk reducing technology is very much an empirical question which this article investigates using a unique dataset from eastern Ethiopia in a year of extreme weather conditions. Results show that risk‐factors coupled with access to markets and social capital drive farmers’ decisions to adopt MVs. On the one hand, it appears that farmers use MVs to mitigate moderate risks. On the other hand, farmers who have been most vulnerable to extreme weather events are less likely to use MVs suggesting that MV adoption does not necessarily represent an effective means of coping with drought. Finally, findings show that MV growers are more likely to be affected by sorghum failure once controlling for exogenous production factors.     

A cognitive perspective on managers' perceptions of competition

This paper focuses on the way managers perceive their competitive environment. Within a cognitive perspective it discusses why they might group similar competitors and considers whether they are attentive to all competing firms. The literature on similarity of perceptions between managers is reviewed. Interviews amongst managers in the North Sea off‐shore oil pumps industry revealed that they made sense of competition through a categorization process. None perceived the industry in the objective manner as economists suggest. Different perceptions as to the nature of competitions were found between managers, but more homogeneous perceptions were seen between managers in the same firm than between different firms.     

Dynamic Voluntary Contribution to a Public Project

We consider the dynamic private provision of funds to projects that generatepublic benefits. Participants have complete information about theenvironment, but imperfect information about individual actions: each periodthey observe only the aggregate contribution. Each player may contribute anyamount in any period before the contributing horizon is reached. All Nashequilibrium outcomes are characterized. In many cases they are all alsoperfect Bayesian equilibrium outcomes. If the horizon is long, if theplayers' preferences are similar, and if they are patient or the periodlength is short, perfect Bayesian equilibria exist that essentially completethe project. In some of them the completion time shrinks to zero with theperiod length—efficiency is achieved in the limit.     

试论我国商业银行功能创新与完善

功能创新与完善已成为金融业发展的一个主要方向，我国商业银行应着生发展业务创新，工具创新和服务创新。     

Extreme divorce: the managerial revolution in UK companies before 19141

We present the first broadly representative study for any early twentieth‐century economy of the extent to which quoted company ownership was already divorced from managerial control. In the 337 largest, independent, UK companies in the Investor's year book (those with £1 million or more quoted share capital in 1911), the generality of public shareholders were a narrower group than today, but directors personally owned only 3.4 per cent of the shares. This indicates a lower level of personal ownership (and board voting control) in the largest securities market of the early twentieth century than in any of the world's major securities markets toward the end of that century. Berle, Means, Gordon, and others subsequently quantified the US's later and (on this dimension) less advanced managerial ‘revolution’. Their evidence was widely misinterpreted: some erroneously concluded that the US pioneered this aspect of ‘modernity’ and that the ‘divorce’ of ownership from control, globally, was a new and continuing trend.