Earnings Instability and Tenure

We study the effect of tenure on earnings instability in Italy using the reforms of temporary employment contracts, which affected the average tenure of workers differentially across cohorts. We develop a model of earnings dynamics, and we exploit the variation of tenure and instability over time and across birth cohorts to estimate policy‐relevant parameters. Our results indicate that each year of tenure on the job reduces earnings instability by 11 percent; the drop is faster in the first three years of the match. Workers on a temporary contract have an earnings instability up to 100 percent higher than workers on a permanent contract.     

“Relative Importance of Risk Sources in Insurance Systems”, Edward W. Frees,April 1998

Abstract

This paper considers a Sparre Andersen collective risk model in which the distribution of the interclaim time is that of a sum of n independent exponential random variables; thus, the Erlang(n) model is a special case. The analysis is focused on the function φ(u), the expected discounted penalty at ruin, with u being the initial surplus. The penalty may depend on the deficit at ruin and possibly also on the surplus immediately before ruin. It is shown that the function φ(u) satisfies a certain integro-differential equation and that this equation can be solved in terms of Laplace transforms, extending a result found in Lin (2003). As a consequence, a closed-form expression is obtained for the discounted joint probability density of the deficit at ruin and the surplus just before ruin, if the initial surplus is zero. For this formula and other results, the roots of Lundberg’s fundamental equation in the right half of the complex plane play a central role. Also, it is shown that φ(u) satisfies Li’s (2003) renewal equation. Under the assumption that the penalty depends only on the deficit at ruin and that the individual claim amount density is a combination of exponential densities, a closed-form expression for φ(u) is derived. In this context, known results of the Cauchy matrix are useful. Surprisingly, certain results are best expressed in terms of divided differences, a topic deleted from the actuarial examinations at the end of last century.     

Finance–growth nexus: does causality withstand financial liberalization? Evidence from cointegrated VAR

The main finding of the paper is that, contrary to Rousseau and Wachtel (Economic growth and financial depth. Is the relationship extinct already? UNU-Wider discussion paper no. 2005/10, 2005), a long-run equilibrium relationship between financial and economic development is identified with data up to 2006—well over the financial openness boom of the nineties—in countries whose history is characterized by numerous years of high inflation and/or episodes of crisis or other structural change. Also, financial openness, or lack thereof, proves to be an important feature both in explaining differences in sensitivity of financial development to capital accumulation and in determining the direction of causality between financial and economic development. The paper finds that bidirectional causality between economic and financial development is not as frequent an outcome as in Luintel and Khan (J Dev Econ 60:381–405, 1999), and in several cases, Joan Robinson’s (The generalization of the general theory in the rate of interest, and other essays, Macmillan, London, pp 67–142, 1952) statement on the primacy of economic development over finance is supported by the estimations.     

Analytic derivatives and the computation of GARCH estimates

In the context of univariate GARCH models we show how analytic first and second derivatives of the log-likelihood can be successfully employed for estimation purposes. Maximum likelihood GARCH estimation usually relies on the numerical approximation to the log-likelihood derivatives, on the grounds that an exact analytic differentiation is much too burdensome. We argue that this is not the case and that the computational benefit of using the analytic derivatives (first and second) may be substantial. Furthermore, we make a comparison of various gradient algorithms that are used for the maximization of the GARCH Gaussian likelihood. We suggest the implementation of a globally efficient computation algorithm that is obtained by suitably combining the use of the estimated information matrix with that of the exact Hessian during the maximization process. As this would appear a straightforward extension, we then study the finite sample performance of the exact Hessian and its approximations (that is, the estimated information, outer products and misspecification robust matrices) in inference.     

Applying the counseling-learning approach to a tourism-related massive open online course

ABSTRACT

This study discusses how to apply counseling-learning (CL) principles to a particular e-learning solution for teaching a tourism-related subject via a massive open online course (MOOC). Several effective caring patterns in achieving learning-related goals and being part of a community according to the CL principles are presented and discussed using the MOOC “eTourism: Communication Perspectives” as a case study. The study underlines how the MOOC platform can act as a place for contents enjoinment and active learning. Moreover, the active role of social media for increasing the engagement of learners in the proposed activities and for developing a sense of the community is identified. In particular, Facebook and Twitter can act as places for community building and informal social interactions among learners that last beyond the completion of the course, which in turn can be a valid aid for continuing the relationships among instructors/learners and learners/learners, and for reaching new ones.     

MOOCs in tourism and hospitality: a review

ABSTRACT

Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs) have grown significantly and globally in less than ten years. However, practices and research in tourism and hospitality MOOCs remain nascent. This study proposes the MOOC Components Framework with six groups of course components: scaffolding, lectures, networking, collaboration, assessment, and affirmation. Drawing on this framework and a case study method, the study analyses 18 tourism and hospitality MOOCs from higher education institutions. The results highlight that: tourism and hospitality MOOC offerings lack diversity; the forum is the preferred communication tool; social media are comparatively underused; the discontinuity of MOOC instructors needs attention; and finally, littless multilingual support is available.     

The problem of employees' network centrality and supervisors' error in performance appraisal: A multilevel theory

This article reveals an unexplored paradox for HR managers: the centrality of an employee in the social network benefits performance but hampers performance appraisal because it affects supervisors' rating errors. Central employees can be erroneously rated high on performance even when they are not high performers because supervisors tend to overappraise their performance. A distinction is made between rating precision, which depends on supervisors' uncertainty regarding employees' performance, and rating accuracy, which depends on supervisors' bias in favor of employees. Employee centrality is posited to be beneficial to precision but deleterious to accuracy because it regulates the diffusion of positive information, status, and power, all of which distort supervisors' capacity and motivation to accurately appraise performance. It is then argued that rating errors caused by network centrality affect aggregate perceptions of justice in organizations. When employees are highly connected to each other in a dense network, organizations have a strong and positive justice climate. Yet when some employees are more central than others in a centralized network, organizations have a negative and weak justice climate. The article contributes to the literature because it identifies an unexplored dark side of network centrality and offers recommendations for HR managers to cope with its deleterious consequences and for scholars to study them.     

Reference group influence on binary choices dynamics

The recent literature has analyzed binary choices dynamics providing interesting results. Most of these contributions consider interactions within a single group. Nevertheless, in some situations the interaction takes place not only within a single group but also between different groups. In this paper, we investigate the choice dynamics when considering two populations where one serves as a reference group. Considering this influence effect enriches the dynamics. Although the structurally stable resulting dynamics are attracting cycles only, with any positive integer period, the reference group makes the dynamics of the influenced population much more complex. We considered both the possibility that the reference group has the same or the opposite attitude toward the distribution over the choices. We show how the dynamics and the bifurcation structure are modified under the influence of the reference group. Our results illustrate how the propensity to switch choices in the reference groups may, indirectly, affect choices in the first group.     

Organizing for continuous technology acquisition: the role of R&D geographic dispersion

External technology acquisition has been proved to be an important strategy to enhance firms’ innovation performance. However, previous studies claim that companies acquiring technologies tend to not carry on with this strategy over time, thus limiting their attitude toward continuous technology acquisition. Moreover, the extant literature also highlights that this attitude is strongly influenced by their organizational structure. Therefore, in the present paper, we investigate the relationship between how firms organize R&D activities and continuous technology acquisition. Specifically, given the increasing globalization of technological development, we focus on the role of R&D geographic dispersion, and how its influence is moderated by firms’ technological diversification. We tested our hypotheses on longitudinal data of 303 biotechnology firms that acquired, at least, one USPTO patented technology over the period 1982–2012. Results reveal that R&D geographic dispersion is curvilinearly (inverted U-shaped) related to continuous technology acquisition, with negative returns occurring earlier in technology-diversified companies.