Inflation,growth, and distribution: The Brazilian economy after the post war

Abstract

Following Marglin and Bhaduri (1990 Marglin, S.A., and Bhaduri, A. “Profit Squeeze and Keynesian Theory.” In S.A. Marglin and J. Schor (eds.), The Golden Age of Capitalism. Reinterpreting the Postwar Experience. Oxford: Clarendon, 1990. [Google Scholar]), the purpose of this paper is to investigate empirically the interaction between income distribution and growth of aggregate demand during the 1951–89 period in Brazil. Applying Hein and Vogel’s (2008) methodology we conclude that the Brazilian economy showed a profit-led demand regime. In a context of high inflation, high concentration of markets, and wage control, retained profits were the main source to finance new capital. In this sense, we found a large sensitivity of investment relative to the wage share, a result that is compatible with a consumption pattern based on high income, which supported the growth trend with low wages observed during the period.     

The bank lending channel of monetary transmission in Brazil: A VECM approach

This paper tests for the existence of a lending channel in the transmission of monetary policy in Brazil using aggregate monthly data for the period 1995:12 through 2008:6. The test is carried out in a VECM setting that allows for multiple cointegrating relationships among the variable of interest. We find evidence of two cointegrating vectors, which we identify as loan demand and supply functions by testing for a number of exclusion and exogeneity restrictions on the cointegrating relationships. Loan supply is found to be negatively related to the interbank deposit certificate rate, suggesting the existence of a lending channel for monetary transmission. The VECM's short-term dynamics show that loan demand is equilibrium-correcting. But short-term disequilibria in the supply of loans are corrected through changes in the interbank deposit certificate rate, suggesting that monetary policy plays a role in restoring equilibrium in the credit market by affecting the borrowing rate faced by banks to raise non-deposit funds.     

Capstone or deadweight? Inefficiency, duplication and inequity in South Africa's tertiary education system, 1910-93

This paper presents time series on South African tertiary education.The data series presented cover inputs and outputs for the university,technical training and teacher training systems. Modern growththeory has emphasised the importance of human capital, thoughempirical studies have attempted to isolate human capital impactsthrough single aggregate measures that capture only a quantityof human capital dimension. While data analysis in the presentstudy is exploratory in nature, we show that strong qualitydifferentials exist both within and between different partsof the tertiary education system. The methodological implicationfor growth studies is that fully accounting for both the quantityand quality of human capital in aggregate human capital measuresthus faces significant measurement difficulties. The data alsoestablish that discrimination in the South African tertiaryeducation was not simply a question of underresourcing of Blackinstitutions. Quality of output was low, but attaining it wasfrequently very expensive.     

MGARCH models: Trade-off between feasibility and flexibility

Multivariate GARCH (MGARCH) models need to be restricted so that their estimation is feasible in large systems and so that the covariance stationarity and positive definiteness of conditional covariance matrices are guaranteed. This paper analyzes the limitations of some of the popular restricted parametric MGARCH models that are often used to represent the dynamics observed in real systems of financial returns. These limitations are illustrated using simulated data generated by general VECH models of different dimensions in which volatilities and correlations are interrelated. We show that the restrictions imposed by the BEKK model are very unrealistic, generating potentially misleading forecasts of conditional correlations. On the other hand, models based on the DCC specification provide appropriate forecasts. Alternative estimators of the parameters are important in order to simplify the computations, and do not have implications for the estimates of conditional correlations. The implications of the restrictions imposed by the different specifications of MGARCH models considered are illustrated by forecasting the volatilities and correlations of a five-dimensional system of exchange rate returns.     

Modelling satisfaction with ATMs: A cross-country comparison

The aim of this paper is to extend the work of Goode and Moutinho by applying their model to a different country, namely Hungary, and then comparing the results. The hypothesised model links overall satisfaction to seven explanatory variables (namely expectations, perceived risk, confidence, recommendations to others, level of charges, frequency of use and full use of services). This paper is divided into four parts, the first of which looks at the UK and Hungarian banking systems. The second section describes the methodology and data collection used in this study. The third section analyses the empirical results derived from applying the model and the final section discusses the results and managerial implications of the results obtained from this study.     

Constructing a knowledge‐based system to aid scenario‐based strategic planning: an application to the European airline industry

This paper explores the use of scenario planning and the design of a knowledge‐based system in strategic decision making, in the context of the European airline industry. Several innovative strategies were derived, as well as other key recommendations based on sound strategic reasoning, and participants testified to the effectiveness of the approach in stretching their thinking. The requirement to draft strategies as expert system rules, with reasons, was useful in clarifying thinking and achieving group consensus. This methodology, therefore, aids effectiveness of the scenario planning process itself, while providing a dynamic, accessible means of storing the resulting strategic thinking. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Out‐of‐Sample Return Predictability: A Quantile Combination Approach

This paper develops a novel forecasting method that minimizes the effects of weak predictors and estimation errors on the accuracy of equity premium forecasts. The proposed method is based on an averaging scheme applied to quantiles conditional on predictors selected by LASSO. The resulting forecasts outperform the historical average, and other existing models, by statistically and economically meaningful margins. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Reviewing and improving performance measurement systems: An action research

Reviewing and updating performance measurement systems (PMS) based on internal and external environmental changes are as important as developing and implementing them. The results of an action research study carried out to improve the PMS of an energy company's maritime transportation area are presented. The findings of this longitudinal study illustrate the difficulty and complexity of reviewing and updating an energy company's PMS for its maritime transportation area. This difficulty is due to the involvement of PMS users, the assessment of performance measures, the establishment of targets, and data availability. The complexity is related to the changes in information technology when implementing changes in procedures for computing performance measures. This article contributes to a better understanding of the process of reviewing and updating a company's existing PMS.     

Monetary policy and macroeconomic stability in Latin America: The cases of Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Mexico

In 1999, new monetary policy regimes were adopted in Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Mexico, combining inflation targeting with floating exchange rates. These regime changes have been accompanied by lower volatility in the monetary stance in Brazil, Colombia and Mexico, despite higher inflation volatility in Brazil and Colombia. This paper estimates a conventional New Keynesian model for these four countries and shows that: i) the post-1999 regime has been associated with greater responsiveness by the monetary authority to changes in expected inflation in Brazil and Chile, while in Colombia and Mexico monetary policy has become less counter-cyclical, ii) lower interest-rate volatility in the post-1999 period owes more to a benign economic environment than to a change in the policy setting, and iii) the change in the monetary regime has not yet resulted in a reduction in output volatility in these countries.