Statistical inference on regression with spatial dependence

Central limit theorems are developed for instrumental variables estimates of linear and semiparametric partly linear regression models for spatial data. General forms of spatial dependence and heterogeneity in explanatory variables and unobservable disturbances are permitted. We discuss estimation of the variance matrix, including estimates that are robust to disturbance heteroscedasticity and/or dependence. A Monte Carlo study of finite-sample performance is included. In an empirical example, the estimates and robust and non-robust standard errors are computed from Indian regional data, following tests for spatial correlation in disturbances, and nonparametric regression fitting. Some final comments discuss modifications and extensions.     

WHY THE COMPOSITE INDEX OF LEADING INDICATORS DOES NOT LEAD

This paper assesses the real-time performance of the Commerce Department's composite index of leading indicators. The authors find that the composite leading index has failed to provide reliable advance warning of cyclical turning points. One reason for this failure is that the leading index's transition from expansion to contraction generally is not very sharp. Consequently, discerning real-time cyclical peaks in the index is difficult. Transitions from contraction to expansion on average are sharp. However, cyclical troughs in the leading index often precede cyclical troughs in the economy by only a few months. Thus, even timely recognition of troughs in the leading index fails to provide advance warning of turnarounds in the general level of economic activity .     

Privatization,industrial policy and governing the transitions

Conclusions When one looks with a clear head at the nearly mind-boggling range of pros and cons regarding the wisdom of pursuing an industrial policy, one cannot escape infusing some degree of sentiment into what should be a dispassionate debate. Mine is for exploring the positive contribution that centralizing organs can render not only to transition policies but also to operating a market-based economy into which the sociopolitical sentiment finds its reflection to the extent existing political institutions allow. Industrial policy as part and parcel of good economic governancecan under some conditions play a constructive role in creating conditions that are conducive to generating more effective resource allocation. This role should be an evolving one, with the state disengaging from detailed management or efforts aimed at steering management in a particular direction as the changes incumbent on transforming the PETs into viable market-based structures gradually solidify. This observation applies with even greater force to the conceptualization, formulation, and implementation of transformation policies with or without targeted international economic assistance.     

The future of in-store technology

Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science - This paper introduces a conceptual framework for understanding new and futuristic in-store technology infusions. First, we develop a...     

An integrated framework for the conceptualization of consumers’ perceived-risk processing

Research on risk is built on a complex array of diverse and sometimes inconsistent definitions, constructs, models, and outcomes. This study examines various literatures to formulate an integrated framework for the conceptualization of perceived-risk processing. The framework specifies three phases (framing, assessment, and evaluation) and their accompanying outcomes of risk attention, perceived risk, and risk-taking propensity. Explicit linkages are specified between situational and individual characteristics. Perceived-risk evaluation is identified as concepturally distinct from assessment of perceived risk, and the construct of risk-taking propensity is separated from those of risk affinity and perceived risk. The framework further presents points of intersection between the literatures on perceived risk and the literatures on consumer decision-making, information search, and satisfaction. Finally, it serves as an anchor for framing future research to promote conceptual and methodological consistency, and to guide progress in directions that are consistent with some leading edge paradigms outside of marketing. Margy P. Conchar (concharm@mail.ecu.edu; Ph.D., University of Georgia) is an assistant professor at East Carolina University. Her research focuses on consumer behavior and advertising. Her work in consumer behavior concentrates on risk, motives, and optimal consumption experience. Her research in advertising focuses on the interface between advertising and finance, accounting, or economics. She has previously published in the proceedings of the Academy of Marketing Science, the Association for Consumer Research, the American Marketing Association of Educators, and the Society for Marketing Advances. George M. Zinkhan (gzinkhan@terry.uga.edu; Ph.D., University of Michigan) is the Coca-Cola Company Chair of Marketing at the University of Georgia. His major research interests include advertising, promotion, e-commerce, and knowledge development. Two of his recent coauthored books includeConsumers (2004, McGraw-Hill) andElectronic Commerce: A Strategic Perspective (2000, Dryden). Cara Peters (petersc@winthrop.edu; Ph.D., University of Nebraska) is an assistant professor at Winthrop University. Her research lies in the general areas of consumer behavior and e-commerce. Primarily using mixed methods, she examines risky consumer behaviors as they relate to sociology and psychology. She has published in theJournal of Consumer Psychology andConsumption, Markets, and Culture, among other journals. Sergio Olavarrieta (solavar@negocios.uchile.cl; Ph.D., University of Georgia) is an assistant professor at Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile. He is assistant dean of undergraduate programs at the School of Business and Economics at the University of Chile. His research focuses on branding and marketing strategy. He has previously published in theJournal of Strategic Marketing and theInternational Journal of Product Distribution and Logistics Management.     

Evaluating the efficiency of municipalities in the presence of unobserved heterogeneity

Journal of Productivity Analysis - The paper applies some of the latest advances of probabilistic approach to account directly for unobserved heterogeneity in the estimation of efficiency measures...