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51.
One can easily identify four general models of political business cycles: office-motivated models (both forward and backward looking) and partisan models (again, both forward and backward looking). Each model makes different assumptions about the direction and timing of causal links between the economy and polity. This paper uses Granger causality tests to investigate the causal links between presidential popularity and different measures of aggregate economic performance and aggregate economic policy. The paper's aim is to investigate whether any existing theories receive substantive support and, if not, to suggest the properties that any new theories should display. The results indicate no overwhelming support for any existing theories, though partisan models receive more support than do office-motivated models. The data appear to be most consistent with Ellis and Thoma's reputational partisan model. 相似文献
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This paper seeks to explain why the net present value profiles of investment projects may intersect with changes in the interest rate. Previous explanations have pointed to differences in the timing of the projects' cash flows. However, the timing of a project's cash flows has not been defined in the literature and the relative timing of projects' cash flows typically is illustrated by a simplistic example. We make use of the projects' durations to specify timing differences and provide a more explicit analysis of the role of timing differences in the intersection of present value profiles of projects. 相似文献
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MARK LATHAM 《The Journal of Finance》1986,41(1):39-52
This paper proposes a new definition of the Efficient Markets Hypothesis with respect to information, which is more formal and precise than those of Rubinstein 13 , Fama 4 , Jensen 6 , and Beaver 1 , and which fits well as a framework for interpreting the many tests of the Efficient Markets Hypothesis in the literature. Security markets are here considered “efficient with respect to information set ?” if and only if revealing ? to all agents would change neither equilibrium prices nor portfolios. In addition to other desirable features, this definition has the “subset property”: efficiency with respect to ? implies efficiency with respect to any subset of ?. 相似文献
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This paper finds that the generally favorable assessment of corporate sell-off decisions is most apparent for closely held firms where insider net-buy activity is prevalent during the prior six-month period. This suggests that insider trader activity and ownership structure information are used by the market in the characterization of sell-off decisions as favorable or unfavorable for investors. 相似文献
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