U.S. IMMIGRATION REFORM: POLICY ISSUES AND ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

In recent years, legal U. S. immigration has approached historically high levels, and illegal immigration has been thought to be high and perhaps rising. Consequently, the Select Commission on Immigration and Refugee Policy proposed sweeping changes in the nation's immigration laws. During 1984, both the Senate and House passed the Immigration Reform and Control Act (Simpson-Mazzoli Bill). This bill subsequently died in the conference committee that was established to reconcile differences between the bill's two versions. The proposed act has three major provisions: (1) control of illegal immigration, (2) legalization of alienstatus, and (3) reform of legal immigration. Both the House and Senate versions would maintain the present orientation of U.S. immigration policy toward family reunification, but the Senate proposed significant changes in legal immigration restrictions that would shift policy slightly more toward labor considerations. These proposed changes were eliminated in the compromise made in the conference committee. Employer sanctions and legalization of illegal aliens were left as the two most prominent alterations to existing policy. During 1985, the 99th Congress is likely to reconsider the Simpson-Mazzoli Bill, perhaps in a streamlined version which emphasizes employer sanctions, legalization, and a substantial increase in border enforcement.     

BUSINESS CYCLE,CURRENCY AND TRADE,REVISITED

This paper provides long‐run historical evidence for the link between business cycle synchronization, trade and the exchange rate regime. Using data from a large number of industrialized countries and a group of Asian economies, we examine this link in three sub‐periods: the first globalization period (1870–1913), the bloc economy period (1915–1959) and the second globalization period (1960–2004). The business cycle is identified as the series of deviates from a Hodrick–Prescott filtered trend. Cyclical turning points are located in the business cycles of our sample of 21 major countries, which enables us to comment on the characteristics of business cycles in the three periods. Cross‐correlations of the cyclical deviates are calculated for all the pairs of the 21 countries examined. It is apparent from casual inspection that the business cycle characteristics and the pattern of cross‐correlations in the bloc economy period are different from those found for the two globalization periods, whereas there is less difference between the two globalization periods. Following the estimations by Frankel and Rose, we relate business cycle synchronization to trade patterns and currency unions. Consequently, we find that European integration was already discernible in terms of business cycle synchronization in the early 1900s and that a similar synchronization was not discernible for Asia.     

Cost-Padding in Profit-Regulated Firms*

When entry into an industry is restricted, economic regulation of that industry is often directed at preventing existing firms from monopoly pricing behaviour. One form of such regulation is to set prices so as to control the level of profits earned by these firms. This paper briefly reviews the relevant economic literature and presents a model of the regulated firm in which such price-setting procedures provide an incentive to inflate costs above minimum levels. The welfare cost of this form of regulation can then exceed that occurring at the unconstrained monopoly outcome. The setting of air fares under the Two-Airline Policy and the regulation of natural gas in NSW are discussed in the context of this analysis.     

Thatcher Monetary Policy is Working: No Case for Reflation

The Prime Minister's monetary policy has been widely condemned as failing. Two American observers of British economic policy, an academic and a practical economist, maintain that the evidence shows both that it is working effectively and that there is no convincing argument for abandoning it.     

Managerial Reputation and the Informativeness of Accounting and Market Measures of Performance*

Abstract. This study examines the influence of accounting and capital market measures of firm performance on the reputations of corporate chief executives (CEOs). The empirical tests rely on pooled time-series cross-sectional data for approximately 900 top executives in about 500 firms drawn from 36 industries over the 1975–1987 period. CEO reputation measures are derived from securities analysts' annual evaluations of executive performance as reported by Financial World magazine. The study's results document a positive incremental association between profit performance and reputation, a finding consistent with the notion that accounting earnings convey information about CEO productivity beyond that present in stock returns. However, the sensitivity of CEO reputation to stock returns and earnings performance is modest, and the earnings-reputation relation varies considerably across industry groups. Résumé. Les auteurs s'intéressent ici à l'influence qu'exercent sur la réputation des directeurs généraux de sociétés les mesures de la performance de l'entreprise relevant de la comptabilité et du marché des capitaux. Leurs tests empiriques s'appuient sur les données transversales de séries chronologiques groupées relatives à environ 900 cadres supérieurs de quelque 500 entreprises provenant de 36 secteurs d'activité, relevées entre 1975 et 1987. Les « mesures » de la réputation des directeurs généraux de sociétés sont dérivées de l'évaluation annuelle de la performance des cadres, produite par les analystes en valeurs mobilières, dont fait état le magazine Financial World. Les résultats obtenus révèlent une association prenant la forme d'un écart marginal positif entre la performance, en termes de profits, et la réputation, constatation qui corrobore la notion selon laquelle les bénéfices comptables livrent, au sujet de la productivité des directeurs généraux de sociétés, de l'information que ne livre pas le rendement des actions. La sensibilité de la réputation des directeurs généraux de sociétés au rendement de l'action et aux bénéfices est cependant modérée, et la relation bénéfices-réputation varie largement selon les groupes sectoriels.