On the Optimal Hedge of a Nontraded Cash Position

In this paper, we focus on the optimal demand for futures contracts by an investor with a logarithmic utility function who attempts to hedge a nontraded cash position. When the analysis is conducted in the “cash-commodity-price” space, we show that the value function associated with the Bernoulli investor program is not additively separable, thus suggesting that this investor hedges against shifts in the opportunity set as represented by the commodity price. By establishing the equivalence between the cash formulation of the problem and the wealth formulation, we are able to analyze the problem in the “wealth-commodity-price” space. In this space, we show the additive separability of the value function when the futures settlement price process is perfectly locally correlated with the commodity price process. The demand for futures in this instance is composed of (a) a mean-variance term and (b) a minimum-variance component that is a classic feature of models with nontraded assets. Since the first-best (nonmyopic) optimum is attained, however, the deviation from a mean-variance demand should not be interpreted as the expression of a nonmyopic behavior but rather as an attempt to restore a first-best optimum. On the other hand, when the correlation between the futures price and the underlying commodity price is imperfect, in general, the value function does not separate additively, the first-best solution cannot be attained, and the optimal futures trading strategy involves a hedging term against shifts in the opportunity set.     

On the Importance of Measuring Payout Yield: Implications for Empirical Asset Pricing

We investigate the empirical implications of using various measures of payout yield rather than dividend yield for asset pricing models. We find statistically and economically significant predictability in the time series when payout (dividends plus repurchases) and net payout (dividends plus repurchases minus issuances) yields are used instead of the dividend yield. Similarly, we find that payout (net payout) yields contains information about the cross section of expected stock returns exceeding that of dividend yields, and that the high minus low payout yield portfolio is a priced factor.     

Capital Asset Pricing Compatible with Observed Market Value Weights

We show that the set of expected return vectors, for which an observed portfolio is mean variance (MV) efficient, is a two-parameter family. We identify ten ways to specify the time series behavior of the two parameters; the result highlights a number of inconsistencies involved in MV modelling. For each of the cases, it permits the inference of the time series of expected return vectors, as well as all the other Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) variables, compatible with a known covariance matrix and the observed time series of market value weights. The empirical work shows that there are substantial case-to-case differences in the time series of mean vectors and many of them are quite different from the constant mean vector envisioned in tests of the CAPM.     

Learning about Consumption Dynamics

This paper characterizes U.S. consumption dynamics from the perspective of a Bayesian agent who does not know the underlying model structure but learns over time from macroeconomic data. Realistic, high‐dimensional macroeconomic learning problems, which entail parameter, model, and state learning, generate substantially different subjective beliefs about consumption dynamics compared to the standard, full‐information rational expectations benchmark. Beliefs about long‐run dynamics are volatile, with counter‐cyclical conditional volatility, and drift over time. Embedding these beliefs in a standard asset pricing model significantly improves the model's ability to match the stylized facts, as well as the sample path of the market price‐dividend ratio.     

Patrick Colquhoun

Patrick Colquhoun, ‘the father of Glasgow’, established his reputation as an able accountant, businessman and manager in the 1780s. This reputation was overshadowed by his contributions to penal reform which he made in the 1790s when he resided in London. Radzinowicz (1956) and Foucault (1977) showed that Colquhoun, in conjunction with his friend Jeremy Bentham, the famous utilitarian economist, made a significant impact on penal reform. Their contribution was encouraged by the British government in the period of turmoil which followed the French Revolution. Bentham understood the role of accounting in the management of businesses (Goldberg, 1956; Hume, 1970; Gallhofer and Haslam, 1993). He alone recognized the importance of Colquhoun's accounting knowledge and business experience and how his pragmatism enhanced his powerful cases for the adoption of new socioeconomic systems. Until now this view of Bentham has been ignored. Other historians, driven by their special interests, concentrated on one phase of Colquhoun's diverse life. None attempted to analyse the relationship between his ideas for the reform of punishment, police and poor systems and his prior experience as an accountant, businessman and manager. That relationship is the subject of this article and the objective of my research is to answer two questions. First, where did Patrick Colquhoun acquire his knowledge of business and accounting techniques? Second, how did he use his knowledge in the 1790s to build cases which influenced those in power to adopt new socioeconomic systems?     

Debt Financing under Asymmetric Information

We analyze the optimal design of debt maturity, coupon payments, and dividend payout restrictions under asymmetric information. We show that, if the asymmetry of information is concentrated around long-term cash flows, firms finance with coupon-bearing long-term debt that partially restricts dividend payments. If the asymmetry of information is concentrated around near-term cash flows and there exists considerable refinancing risk, firms finance with coupon-bearing long-term debt that does not restrict dividend payments. Finally, if the asymmetry of information is uniformly distributed across dates, firms finance with short-term debt.     

BUSINESS CYCLE,CURRENCY AND TRADE,REVISITED

This paper provides long‐run historical evidence for the link between business cycle synchronization, trade and the exchange rate regime. Using data from a large number of industrialized countries and a group of Asian economies, we examine this link in three sub‐periods: the first globalization period (1870–1913), the bloc economy period (1915–1959) and the second globalization period (1960–2004). The business cycle is identified as the series of deviates from a Hodrick–Prescott filtered trend. Cyclical turning points are located in the business cycles of our sample of 21 major countries, which enables us to comment on the characteristics of business cycles in the three periods. Cross‐correlations of the cyclical deviates are calculated for all the pairs of the 21 countries examined. It is apparent from casual inspection that the business cycle characteristics and the pattern of cross‐correlations in the bloc economy period are different from those found for the two globalization periods, whereas there is less difference between the two globalization periods. Following the estimations by Frankel and Rose, we relate business cycle synchronization to trade patterns and currency unions. Consequently, we find that European integration was already discernible in terms of business cycle synchronization in the early 1900s and that a similar synchronization was not discernible for Asia.     

ASSESSING INCENTIVE-BASED ENVIRONMENTAL POLICIES FOR REDUCING HOUSEHOLD WASTE DISPOSAL

In residential solid waste management, the United States has a great deal of experience in applying incentive-based environmental policy in the form of unit pricing. This study examines the two most common forms of unit pricing practiced in the United States. It offers intuition and empirical evidence suggesting divergence of theoretical expectations and actual outcomes regarding the effects of switching to unit pricing. Data collected from households in Marietta, Ga. during a solid waste pricing experiment serve as the basis for the analysis.     

Product Quality and the Optimal Structure of Commodity Taxes

The comparison between ad valorem and specific taxation is among the oldest issues in formal public finance and is important for policy in the European Union (EU) and elsewhere. This paper develops and articulates simple but very general elasticity rules that characterize the optimal balance between the two in a model of endogenous product quality. These rules temper the preference for ad valorem taxation that emerges from homogeneous product models, pointing to relatively heavy reliance on whichever form of taxation has the least effect on product quality.