Regional Trade Arrangements in Africa: Past Performance and the Way Forward

Abstract: Regional trade arrangements (RTAs) in Africa have been ineffective in promoting trade and foreign direct investment. Relatively high external trade barriers and low resource complementarity between member countries limit both intra‐ and extraregional trade. Small market size, poor transport facilities and high trading costs make it difficult for African countries to reap the potential benefits of RTAs. To increase regional trade and investment, African countries need to undertake more broad‐based liberalization and streamline existing RTAs, supported by improvements in infrastructure and trade facilitation. Early action to strengthen the domestic revenue base would help address concerns over revenue losses from trade liberalization.     

The day-of-the-week effect in conditional correlation

The day-of-the-week effect in the first and second moments of the return distribution is a well researched area. However, not many studies have attempted to identify this effect in the comovement or correlation of the markets. This paper models the day-of-the-week effect in the returns and the conditional correlation for some Asia-Pacific equity markets. The paper finds a Monday, Wednesday and Friday effects in the returns for some of the markets. The effect is totally absent in the returns for Australia, Japan and Korea. For the fifteen conditional correlation series estimated, a predominant Tuesday effect is detected for five series. Three series exhibit a Monday effect. A Thursday effect is detected between the Singapore market and the markets of Australia, Hong Kong and Thailand. The paper finds no consistent day-of-the-week effect in the returns and the correlations for this region. JEL Classification G15 · G14     

Models of Multi-Category Choice Behavior

Given the advent of basket-level purchasing data of households, choice modelers are actively engaged in the development of statistical and econometric models of multi-category choice behavior of households. This paper reviews current developments in this area of research, discussing the modeling methodologies that have been used, the empirical findings that have emerged so far, and directions for future research. We also motivate the use of Bayesian methods to overcome the computational challenges involved in estimation.     

Production Efficiency and the Pricing of Audit Services*

In this paper, we examine the relative efficiency of audit production by one of the then Big 6 public accounting firms for a sample of 247 geographically dispersed audits of U.S. companies performed in 1989. To test the relative efficiency of audit production, we use both stochastic frontier estimation (SFE) and data envelopment analysis (DEA). A feature of our research is that we also test whether any apparent inefficiencies in production, identified using SFE and DEA, are correlated with audit pricing. That is, do apparent inefficiencies cause the public accounting firm to reduce its unit price (billing rate) per hour of labor utilized on an engagement? With respect to results, we do not find any evidence of relative (within‐sample) inefficiencies in the use of partner, manager, senior, or staff labor hours using SFE. This suggests that the SFE model may not be sufficiently powerful to detect inefficiencies, even with our reasonably large sample size. However, we do find apparent inefficiencies using the DEA model. Audits range from about 74 percent to 100 percent relative efficiency in production, while the average audit is produced at about an 88 percent efficiency level, relative to the most efficient audits in the sample. Moreover, the inefficiencies identified using DEA are correlated with the firm's realization rate. That is, average billing rates per hour fall as the amount of inefficiency increases. Our results suggest that there are moderate inefficiencies in the production of many of the subject public accounting firm's audits, and that such inefficiencies are economically costly to the firm.     

医保改革面临挑战

当前,许多国家仍存在医疗服务可得性差、医疗成本高昂、公共卫生支出效率低下等问题,医保改革面临重大挑战。医保改革目标存在两难—既要改善人们的健康状况,又要控制支出成本,因而提高公共卫生支出效率是改善社会健康状况的最优选择。各国政府的干预形式和公共卫生支出水平因国别、时间等的不同而变化。财政状况较好的新兴经济体需在保证财政可持续的前提下扩大基本医保覆盖面;发达经济体则应注重提升公共卫生支出的效率并限制支出增长速度。     

Structural interdependence within top management teams: A key moderator of upper echelons predictions

Studies of the effects of top management team (TMT) composition on organizational outcomes have yielded mixed and confusing results. A possible breakthrough resides in the reality that TMTs vary in how they are fundamentally structured. Some are structured such that members operate independently of each other, while others are set up such that roles are highly interdependent. We examine the potential for three facets of structural interdependence—horizontal, vertical, and reward interdependence—to resolve ambiguities regarding effects of TMT heterogeneity. Based on a sample of TMTs in technology firms, we find that the three facets of structural interdependence are potent moderators of two classic predictions: the positive association between TMT heterogeneity and member departures, and between TMT heterogeneity and firm performance. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Behavior of output during currency crises

This paper documents the behavior of output and its association with other macroeconomic variables in 195 episodes of currency crises in developing countries during 1970-2000. We find that about 60% of the crises are contractionary, while the rest are expansionary. Crises are one and a half times more likely to be contractionary in emerging markets than in other developing economies. The number of contractionary crises or their severity does not increase in the 1990s. Economies which experience capital inflows in the years prior to the crisis or an increase in external debt burden during the crisis are more likely to slow down during crises, while those with restrictions on capital flows prior to the crisis or are more open to international trade are less likely to do so. The results are robust to different ways of measuring changes in output during crises.     

Exploring antecedents of healthy food choices: an Indian experience

Label information on food items is seen as a tool to facilitate better choices. Merely, provision of label information may not lead to the desired outcome. Comprehension and processing of label information during consumer decision making is crucial for better food choices. Based on the primary data obtained from 150 consumers of pre‐packaged food items, the research proposes a conceptual model for healthier food choices. Previously, a number studies related to consumer decision making have employed ‘label reading’ and ‘label use’ interchangeably. Present research advocates that label reading does not amount to label use. Findings from ordered probit model and path analysis suggest that comprehension of label information leads to increase in its perceived usefulness. Further, increased perceived usefulness facilitates better food choice. Instances of better food choices can be maximized by enhancing perceived usefulness and comprehension of label information through educational and awareness campaigns, especially in context of developing countries such as India.     

The Time-Series Properties of House Prices: A Case Study of the Southern California Market

We examine the time-series relationship between house prices in eight Southern California metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs). First, we perform cointegration tests of the house price indexes for the MSAs, finding seven cointegrating vectors. Thus, the evidence suggests that one common trend links the house prices in these eight MSAs, a purchasing power parity finding for the house prices in Southern California. Second, we perform temporal Granger causality tests. The Santa Anna MSA temporally causes house prices in six of the other seven MSAs, excluding only the San Luis Obispo MSA. The Oxnard MSA experiences the largest number of temporal effects from six of the seven MSAs, excluding only Los Angeles. The Santa Barbara MSA proves the most isolated. It temporally causes house prices in only two other MSAs (Los Angeles and Oxnard) and house prices in the Santa Anna MSA temporally cause prices in Santa Barbara. Third, we calculate out-of-sample forecasts in each MSA, using various vector autoregressive and vector error-correction models, as well as Bayesian, spatial, and causality versions of these models with various priors. Different specifications provide superior forecasts in the different MSAs. Finally, we consider how theses time-series models can predict out-of-sample peaks and declines in house prices after in 2005 and 2006. Recursive forecasts, where we update the sample each quarter, provide reasonably good forecasts of the peaks and declines of the house price indexes.     

Natural resource endowments and the domestic revenue effort

We examine whether there is evidence of an offset between government revenues from hydrocarbon (oil and gas) related activities and revenues from other domestic sources in a panel of 30 hydrocarbon producing countries. Our main finding is that there is an offset of about 20%, which is robust to the inclusion of control variables, the exclusion of outliers, and alternate estimation methodologies. While the impact of the offset on long-term development prospects is not clear, there is a risk of significant adjustment costs in moving to a higher level of domestic taxation once natural resources are depleted.