The Effect of Bid Rigging on Prices: A Study of the Highway Construction Industry

This paper examines the effect of multimarket contact in afirst price sealed bid government procurement auction market. It investigates whether bidprices in the highway construction industry are related to conditions that favor the formation of a cartel.Repeated contacts among firms are found to have a significantly positive effect on the winning low bidwhich leads to higher profit. Further, rivalry among few firms tends to exacerbate the multimarket effect.The results in this study additionally support the recent theoretical predictions that collusion isbetter sustainable during economic downturns.     

On the interpretation of price-quality relations

While low price-quality correlations are commonly cited as evidence of markets which are in some way inefficient, we argue in this paper that price-quality correlations do not necessarily reflect the degree of efficiency of a market. We first define a measure of market efficiency as the aggregate amount which consumers lose due to not choosing the maximum utility brand. Given this measure, and a model of consumer search behavior, we demonstrate analytically that losses in a particular market depend on the distribution of prices and qualities, on the number of alternative brands, and on the level of search costs, as well as on the price-quality correlation. We construct several numerical examples which demonstrate that losses need not be closely related to price-quality correlations.     

A note on component-wise kronecker designs

Summary The paper investigates the particular case of symmetrical block designs with block size two. It is shown that the component-wise Kronecker product of two such designs (c.f. Mukerjee 1981) is connected if and only if the numbers of treatments are relatively prime.     

Indexation of UNCTAD core commodity prices by buffer stocks or export quotas?: A comparison of the benefits for two developing economies

General equilibrium models are used to study the resource allocative and income implications for the Ivory Coast and Kenya of indexation of agricultural commodity prices. Two indexation methods are investigated, (i) buffer stock transactions, and (ii) export quota entitlements. The results suggest that there are efficiency losses associated with the buffer stock option which reduce the GDP gains below that indicated by the pure terms of trade gains. Efficiency gains associated with the export quota method however result in GDP increases above those indicated by the pure terms of trade gains.     

Determinants of corporate borrowing: A note

In his article Determinants of Corporate Borrowing, Myers (1977) says that it is not guaranteed that the maximum value of the firm is reached before the maximum value of the debt is utilized in the case in which the interest payment is fully tax deductible, but the tax shield is lost if the firm goes bankrupt. I have shown here that even in such a case the maximum value of the firm will always be achieved before the maximum available debt is utilized.     

On testing the dimensionality of regression coefficients

In this paper, the distribution of a statistic based on the likelihood ratio method for testing the dimensionality of regression coefficients has been derived. The method of integration over alternate variables has been used to derive the results.     

MNE executive insights into international advertising programme standardisation

The standardisation/adaptation debate in international advertising has been a key topic of discussion among practitioners and academics for over 40 years (Agarwal 1995). The purpose of this paper is to identify the factors that influence executive decisions to standardise or adapt as determined by experienced international marketing executives working for large multinational enterprises (MNEs). The investigation initially provides a review of existing literature about the constructs under investigation and then, through in-depth qualitative interviews, it aims to develop an understanding of the factors executives consider important in the standardisation/adaptation decision in order to develop their international advertising strategies. This paper suggests that recognition of the impact of competition, culture, education, marketing institution and consumer related determinants have increased in importance over the years, affecting decisions of advertising theme, creative expression and media mix. Of these, advertising theme is the easiest and most appropriately standardised theme, whereas, creative expression and media mix are most susceptible to adaptation as per the requirement of the MNEs. The paper concludes by highlighting managerial and academic implications.     

Forecasting house prices for the four census regions and the aggregate US economy in a data-rich environment

This article considers the ability of large-scale (involving 145 fundamental variables) time-series models, estimated by dynamic factor analysis and Bayesian shrinkage, to forecast real house price growth rates of the four US census regions and the aggregate US economy. Besides the standard Minnesota prior, we also use additional priors that constrain the sum of coefficients of the VAR models. We compare 1- to 24-months-ahead forecasts of the large-scale models over an out-of-sample horizon of 1995:01–2009:03, based on an in-sample of 1968:02–1994:12, relative to a random walk model, a small-scale VAR model comprising just the five real house price growth rates and a medium-scale VAR model containing 36 of the 145 fundamental variables besides the five real house price growth rates. In addition to the forecast comparison exercise across small-, medium- and large-scale models, we also look at the ability of the ‘optimal’ model (i.e. the model that produces the minimum average mean squared forecast error) for a specific region in predicting ex ante real house prices (in levels) over the period of 2009:04 till 2012:02. Factor-based models (classical or Bayesian) perform the best for the North East, Mid-West, West census regions and the aggregate US economy and equally well to a small-scale VAR for the South region. The ‘optimal’ factor models also tend to predict the downward trend in the data when we conduct an ex ante forecasting exercise. Our results highlight the importance of information content in large number of fundamentals in predicting house prices accurately.     

DSGE model-based forecasting of modelled and nonmodelled inflation variables in South Africa

Inflation forecasts are a key ingredient for monetary policy-making – especially in an inflation targeting country such as South Africa. Generally, a typical Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) only includes a core set of variables. As such, other variables, for example alternative measures of inflation that might be of interest to policy-makers, do not feature in the model. Given this, we implement a closed-economy New Keynesian DSGE model-based procedure which includes variables that do not explicitly appear in the model. We estimate such a model using an in-sample covering 1971Q2 to 1999Q4 and generate recursive forecasts over 2000Q1 to 2011Q4. The hybrid DSGE performs extremely well in forecasting inflation variables (both core and nonmodelled) in comparison with forecasts reported by other models such as AR(1). In addition, based on ex-ante forecasts over the period 2012Q1–2013Q4, we find that the DSGE model performs better than the AR(1) counterpart in forecasting actual GDP deflator inflation.