Dealer financial conditions and lender-of-last-resort facilities

We examine the financial conditions of dealers that participated in two of the Federal Reserve's lender-of-last-resort (LOLR) facilities—the Term Securities Lending Facility (TSLF) and the Primary Dealer Credit Facility (PDCF)—that provided liquidity against a range of assets during 2008–2009. Dealers with lower equity returns and greater leverage prior to borrowing from the facilities were more likely to participate in the programs, borrow more, and, in the case of the TSLF, at higher bidding rates. Dealers with less liquid collateral on their balance sheets before the facilities were introduced also tended to borrow more. The results suggest that both financial performance and balance sheet liquidity play a role in LOLR utilization.     

Liquidity risk, credit risk, and the federal reserve’s responses to the crisis

In responding to the severity and broad scope of the crisis, the Federal Reserve (the Fed) has aggressively utilized both traditional monetary policy instruments, as well as innovative tools to provide liquidity. In this paper, the Fed’s actions are examined in light of the evolution of risk during the crisis. The empirical evidence supports the Fed’s views on the primacy of liquidity constraints in the earlier stages of the crisis and the increased prominence of counterparty credit risk as the crisis evolved in 2008. I conclude that an understanding of the prevailing risk environment is necessary to evaluate when central bank programs are likely to be effective and under what conditions the programs might cease to be necessary.     

REDISTRIBUTION AND FREE TRADE IN AGRICULTURE: ARE THEY COMPLEMENTARY?

The purpose of the paper is to look at the welfare effects of trade in agricultural goods in a less developed country where the agricultural market is controlled by a handful of large farmers. It is shown that the success of trade reform depends on the distribution of output between large and small farmers and the success of land reform leading to redistribution from the large to the small farmers depends on trade reform. In other words, if undertaken in isolation, each reform might lead to a fall in welfare, but if jointly undertaken, they will lead to an increase in welfare. Thus the two reforms are complementary.     

A reexamination of corporate sell-offs of real estate assets

This article reexamines the now generally accepted notion that sell-offs of real estate assets provide positive returns for sellers but not for buyers. Following previous research, we use event study methods, but we modify the conventional market model to permit its residuals (unexpected returns) to be described by a time-varying conditional variance. We also differ from previous work in that our sample contains only sell-offs that can be precisely dated. Although we find substantial evidence of time-varying volatility in the unexpected return series, our economic results confirm the conventional viewpoint.     

Valuation of tax loss carryforwards

Tax loss carryforwards (TLC) are a valuable asset because they can potentially reduce a company’s future tax payments. However, there is often a great deal of uncertainty regarding the probability and timing of these tax savings. We propose a contingent-claim model to value this asset. The value is determined primarily by the size of accumulated carryforwards relative to earnings. We show that, for poorly performing firms with large TLC, (1) the realizable (or fair) value of the tax losses can be significantly smaller than the book value, and (2) the tax losses can account for a significant fraction of the company’s equity value. The model is illustrated by calibrating it to a couple of companies with large carryforwards. Finally, we show how the model can be used to compute the marginal tax rate of a company with carryforwards.     

Assessing the long‐run economic impact of labour law systems: a theoretical reappraisal and analysis of new time series data

Standard economic theory sees labour law as an exogenous interference with market relations and predicts mostly negative impacts on employment and productivity. We argue for a more nuanced theoretical position: labour law is, at least in part, endogenous, with both the production and the application of labour law norms influenced by national and sectoral contexts, and by complementarities between the institutions of the labour market and those of corporate governance and financial markets. Legal origin may also operate as a force shaping the content of the law and its economic impact. Time‐series analysis using a new data set on legal change from the 1970s to the mid‐2000s shows evidence of positive correlations between regulation and growth in employment and productivity, at least for France and Germany. No relationship, either positive or negative, is found for the UK and, although the United States shows a weak negative relationship between regulation and employment growth, this is offset by productivity gains.     

Yield spreads,agency costs and the corporate bond call feature

This paper theoretically compares yields and optimal default policies for callable and non-callable corporate debt. It shows that, contrary to the conventional wisdom, it is possible for the yield spread (callable minus non-callable) to be negative. It also identifies the key determinants of the yield spread. Next, it shows that the optimal default trigger for non-callable debt is higher than the trigger for callable debt, resulting in additional default-related costs. Thus, the use of non-callable debt gives rise to an indirect agency cost of early default, which is the difference in total firm value with callable and non-callable debt. This agency cost provides a rationale for the existence of callable debt. By examining the determinants of the magnitude of this agency cost, the conditions that make callable debt more attractive (to the issuing firm) relative to non-callable debt are identified. This allows certain predictions to be made regarding the likelihood of a call feature in a corporate bond. The model's implications are supported by existing empirical studies.     

Commodity betas with mean reverting output prices

This paper provides a theoretical derivation of commodity beta (stock price sensitivity to commodity price) using a contingent-claim model. The model incorporates operating leverage, financial leverage, costly financial distress, and mean reverting commodity prices; and highlights the important role played by the speed of reversion of the commodity price. It is used to identify theoretically the main determinants of commodity beta. Commodity beta is predicted to be an increasing function of the operating and financial leverage of the firm, and a decreasing function of the company’s tax rate and the level, volatility and speed of reversion of the commodity price. Empirical tests with a sample of gold mining firms provide support for these predictions, particularly the new implications of the model (the effect of the commodity price’s speed of reversion and the company’s tax rate).     

Islamic and Conventional Equity Market Movements During and After the Financial Crisis: Evidence from the Newly Launched MSCI Indices

This paper examines the relationship between the Islamic and conventional equity indices by employing the newly launched MSCI Global Islamic Indices which began in 2008. We argue for the case of cointegration supported by fundamental, category and habitat theories, and against cointegration due to the fundamental difference between Islamic and conventional stocks in terms of debt ratio, accounts receivable and interest bearing securities. We find Islamic and conventional equity markets move together despite fundamental differences and given that market microstructure, dividends, capital gains, taxation and governance systems are different across the markets. Almost simultaneous movement of the permanent and cycle components of Islamic and mainstream equity indices has been supported by the application of the Beveridge Nelson (BN) time series decomposition technique. Theoretically, the volatility of Islamic equities should be lower due to their low leverage ratio. Surprisingly, permanent parts of the Islamic indices appear to be more volatile during the crisis period and less volatile during the post‐crisis period.