The Japanese stock market and the macroeconomy: An empirical investigation

We investigate the relationship between macroeconomic variables, such as the industrial production index, interest rate and inflation rate, and the stock market, using Toda and Yamamoto (1995)'s vector autoregressions (VAR) specification. The major findings are: (1) macroeconomic variables do Granger cause the stock market variable, while reverse is not so clear. (2) The lagged stock market variable affects its current value but its impact tend to diminish in the long-run. Policy implication we draw is that the price keeping operation by the Japanese government would not work, but appropriate macroeconomic policies would benefit not only the real market but also the stock market.     

Axiomatization of the core of assignment games

The core of assignment games is characterized by two different lists of axioms. The first list consists of Pareto optimality, consistency, pairwise monotonicity, and individual monotonicity. The second list is obtained from the first one replacing the last axiom by population monotonicity. As a corollary, individual monotonicity and population monotonicity are equivalent under the other axioms. The core is also characterized by the second list on the restricted domain in which the worth of each pair is non-negative and every reservation value is zero.     

A Portfolio Index GARCH model

This paper develops the structure of a parsimonious Portfolio Index (PI) GARCH model. Unlike the conventional approach to Portfolio Index returns, which employs the univariate ARCH class, the PI-GARCH approach incorporates the effects on individual assets, leading to a better understanding of portfolio risk management, and achieves greater accuracy in forecasting Value-at-Risk (VaR) thresholds. For various asymmetric GARCH models, a Portfolio Index Composite News Impact Surface (PI-CNIS) is developed to measure the effects of news on the conditional variances. The paper also investigates the finite sample properties of the PI-GARCH model. The empirical example shows that the asymmetric PI-GARCH-t model outperforms the GJR-t model and the filtered historical simulation with a t distribution in forecasting VaR thresholds.     

The structure of dynamic correlations in multivariate stochastic volatility models

This paper proposes two types of stochastic correlation structures for Multivariate Stochastic Volatility (MSV) models, namely the constant correlation (CC) MSV and dynamic correlation (DC) MSV models, from which the stochastic covariance structures can easily be obtained. Both structures can be used for purposes of determining optimal portfolio and risk management strategies through the use of correlation matrices, and for calculating Value-at-Risk (VaR) forecasts and optimal capital charges under the Basel Accord through the use of covariance matrices. A technique is developed to estimate the DC MSV model using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) procedure, and simulated data show that the estimation method works well. Various multivariate conditional volatility and MSV models are compared via simulation, including an evaluation of alternative VaR estimators. The DC MSV model is also estimated using three sets of empirical data, namely Nikkei 225 Index, Hang Seng Index and Straits Times Index returns, and significant dynamic correlations are found. The Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC) model is also estimated, and is found to be far less sensitive to the covariation in the shocks to the indexes. The correlation process for the DCC model also appears to have a unit root, and hence constant conditional correlations in the long run. In contrast, the estimates arising from the DC MSV model indicate that the dynamic correlation process is stationary.     

Bounds on average causal effects in studies with a latent response variable

Consider a case where cause-effect relationships between variables can be described as a directed acylic graph and the corresponding recursive factorization of a joint distribution. In order to provide the bounds on average causal effects in studies with a latent response variable, this paper proposes a graphical criterion for selecting covariates and variables caused by the response variable. The result enables us not only to judge from the graph structure whether the bounds on an average causal effect can be expressed through the observed quantities, but also to provide their closed-form expressions in case where its answer is affirmative. The graphical criterion of this paper is helpful to evaluate the bounds on average causal effects when it is difficult to observe a response variable.     

How Do Ordinary Japanese Reach Consensus in Group Decision Making?: Identifying and Analyzing “Naïve Negotiation”

The purpose of this study is to investigate ways in which ordinary Japanese people negotiate in a multi-party meeting. We initially gave such a way of negotiation the tentative name of “naïve negotiation”. The analysis of the conversational data reveals three structural features of naïve negotiation: (1) at the utterance level, the participants tend to claim their opinions without providing any overt grounds, (2) at the local consensus-building level, they tend to jump to conclusions without the full examination of proposed hypotheses, (3) at the final consensus-making level, there tends to be disjunctions between discussion units. Although these features are not necessarily seen as irrational or illogical, a naïve-negotiation style can still be a trouble-source in achieving successful consensus-making. This leads us to emphasize the necessity of developing a support system for the discussants.     

Testing for Serial Correlation in the Presence of Stochastic Volatility

This paper develops a regression-based testing procedure for serial correlation in the presence of stochastic volatility. The asymptotic distribution of the test is derived, and the finite sample properties are investigated. Monte Carlo results shows that the test is reliable in terms of both size and power performances, when the underlying process is a log-linear stochastic volatility. Moreover, the test is superior to Woolridge's (1991) robust LM tests in terms of size in finite sample. Serial correlation tests were conducted for nominal returns of ten exchange rates, and indicated that there is a strong evidence of serial correlation for Yen/Dollar exchange rates.     

Determinants of the distance between sovereign credit ratings and sub-sovereign bond ratings: Evidence from emerging markets and developing economies

This article explores factors that affect the distance between sovereign credit ratings and the ratings assigned to new foreign-currency bonds issued by sub-sovereign entities (such as private non-financial corporations, financial firms, and public sector enterprises) in 47 emerging markets and developing economies. Censored and double-hurdle regression models are used to estimate the relative contributions of bond-level, issuer-level, and macroeconomic factors that determine this distance, separately for those rated at or below the sovereign rating and those rated above. For the three quarters or more of sub-sovereign bond ratings that are constrained by the sovereign rating ceiling, a Tobit regression model shows a smaller distance – suggesting stronger sovereign–corporate linkages – for public sector enterprises and financial firms relative to other firms. Riskier global financial conditions are also associated with sub-sovereign bonds being rated closer to the sovereign rating. For the small number of sub-sovereign bonds rated higher than the sovereign rating, a double-hurdle model shows that certain debt features – such as bonds backed by future-flow receivables or other collateral or structured as Special Purpose Vehicles (SPV) – significantly raise the likelihood of piercing the sovereign rating ceiling and also increase the distance above the sovereign ceiling.     

Decentralized provision of disaster aid: aid fragmentation and the poverty implications

International Tax and Public Finance - Despite large-scale humanitarian aid, the headcount poverty rate continued to rise after the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami in Indonesia. Drawing on the unique...