Indonesian population growth 1971-1980

The author reviews the accuracy of the preliminary results of the 1980 Indonesian population census. Methodological weaknesses and errors made in implications for evaluating the effectiveness of family planning programs are considered     

Cheap talk, fraud, and adverse selection in financial markets: some experimental evidence

We examine communication in laboratory games with asymmetricinformation. Sellers know true asset qualities. Potential buyersonly know the quality distribution. Prohibiting communication,we document the degree of adverse selection. Then we examinetwo alternative communication mechanisms. Under 'cheap talk',each seller can announce any subset of qualities. Under 'antifraud',the subset must include the true quality. Both mechanisms improvemarket efficiency, but very differently. Relying on sellers'frequently exaggerated claims, buyers often overpay under cheaptalk. Efficiency gains come at the buyer's expense. The antifraudrule improves efficiency further and eliminates the wealth transferfrom buyers to sellers.     

Central bank haircut policy

We present a model of central bank collateralized lending to study the optimal choice of the haircut policy. We show that a lending facility provides a bundle of two types of insurance: insurance against liquidity risk as well as insurance against downside risk of the collateral. Setting a haircut therefore involves balancing the trade-off between relaxing the liquidity constraints of agents on one hand, and increasing potential inflation risk and distorting the portfolio choices of agents on the other. We argue that the optimal haircut is higher when the central bank is unable to lend exclusively to agents who actually need liquidity. Finally, for a temporary surprise drop in the haircut, the central bank can be more aggressive than when setting a permanent level of the haircut.     

Updating the Determinants of Firm Performance: Estimation using the 1998 UK Workplace Employee Relations Survey

We examine the determinants of establishment performance in the UK, using cross‐sectional data from the 1998 Workplace Employee Relations Survey to replicate research by Fernie and Metcalf (1995) who used data from the 1990 Workplace Employee Relations Survey; specifically, we test whether employee representation, contingent pay and efforts to boost employee participation affect a set of economic and industrial relations outcome indicators in the manner they suggest. We also re‐estimate the influential WERS90‐based study of Machin and Stewart (1996) on the links between union status and financial performance. In both cases we report very different results.