Ecosystem Service Value and Agricultural Conversion in the Amazon: Implications for Policy Intervention

We explore the welfare implications of agricultural expansion in the Brazilian Amazon by comparing spatially explicit estimates of soybean rents and the value of ecosystem services. Although these estimates are generated from different datasets, models, and estimation techniques, the values are comparable, such that the value of ecosystem services is greater than soybean rents for about 61% of the total area and 24% of the area where soybean rents are positive if protected areas are well enforced. Based on the balance between the benefits and costs of conversion, failure to value ecosystem services reduces total social welfare by 7.13 billion dollars annually relative to an optimum. Policy instruments that internalize the value of ecosystem services via protected lands, land conversion taxes, conservation subsidies, or excise taxes can avoid much of this loss. Regardless of intervention regime, policy makers should be cognizant of the diminishing net benefits of converting natural ecosystems to agriculture. Realizing the final 3.8% requires the conversion of an additional 15% natural ecosystems to soybean production.     

Research and development target‐setting difficulties addressed through the emergent method: technology forecasting using data envelopment analysis

The aim of this study is to provide a foundation for researchers and managers to discuss and resolve difficulties associated with research and development (R&D) target‐setting. While multiple studies mention the difficulty of R&D target‐setting, few have compiled reasons for these difficulties or addressed this issue in detail. This paper provides one of the first studies outlining reasons for R&D target‐setting difficulties through a literature review. It also provides an initial set of analyses and results after applying an emerging quantitative method, Technology Forecasting Using Data Envelopment Analysis (TFDEA), to illustrate these difficulties step‐by‐step to commercial airplanes. Results include determining the state of art in commercial airplane technology and technological rate‐of‐change variants in setting R&D targets.     

Adding Regret to Fear Appeals: When the Going Gets Difficult,Regret Gets Action

In accord with Protection Motivation Theory, this article finds fear appeals ineffective at motivating health protection behaviors perceived to be difficult; when task difficulty is high, there is a decrease in perceptions of self‐efficacy and a reduction in health protection behaviors. This research examines a novel way to motivate health protection when task difficulty is salient by adding regret to fear appeals. The inclusion of regret, an emotion that motivates corrective behavioral change, bolsters self‐efficacy and enhances health protection intentions. In fact, even when task difficulty is made salient, self‐efficacy and behavioral intentions remain strong in the fear plus regret condition. Thus, in contrast to straight fear appeals, adding regret to fear appeals results in a reversal effect enhancing self‐efficacy and behavioral intentions when task difficulty is made salient. This research highlights the independence of task difficulty, self‐efficacy, and the role of regret in motivating difficult health protection behaviors.     

Effect of State Paid Family Leave Policies on Inequalities in Maternity Leave Usage in the United States

International Advances in Economic Research -     

Automatic leading indicators versus macroeconometric structural models: A comparison of inflation and GDP growth forecasting

This paper compares the forecast performance of automatic leading indicators (ALIs) and macroeconometric structural models (MESMs) commonly used by non-academic macroeconomists. Inflation and GDP growth form the forecast objects for comparison, using data from China, Indonesia and the Philippines. ALIs are found to outperform MESMs for one-period-ahead forecasts, but this superiority disappears as the forecast horizon increases. It is also found that ALIs involve greater uncertainty in choosing indicators, mixing data frequencies and utilizing unrestricted VARs. Two ways of reducing the uncertainty are explored: (i) give theory priority in choosing indicators, and include theory-based disequilibrium shocks in the indicator sets; and (ii) reduce the VARs by means of the general-to-specific modeling procedure.     

Data driven rank test for the change point problem

Data driven test procedure for detection of change is introduced and its properties are studied. The new solution is max-type statistic related to data-driven rank tests for two-sample subproblems. Simulations show that the new test possesses high and stable power. The test is consistent at essentially any alternative. Asymptotic null distribution of the test is derived. The work of the first two authors has been partially supported by the grants GAČR 201/06/0186 and MSM 02160839.     

“Want to” Versus “Have to”: Intrinsic and Extrinsic Motivators as Predictors of Compliance Behavior Intention

“Worthless,” “money burning,” or “black holes” is how media and professionals describe compliance practices today. Practitioners are unenthusiastic about control systems, codes of conducts, and systems for compliance management that are increasing in volume but not in effectiveness. In order to help practitioners clarify what actually makes employees comply with their compliance program, this study examines intrinsic and extrinsic motivators of 119 employees from procurement and sales. We contribute to the existing motivation literature, testing the self‐determination theory in low and high hierarchical levels. Our findings show that intrinsic motivators are more strongly and positively related to compliance intention on higher hierarchical levels than the lower ones. However, employees from higher hierarchies show overall less compliance intention than employees from lower hierarchies. © 2015 The Authors. Human Resource Management published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

The Drivers of Sovereign CDS Spread Changes: Local Versus Global Factors

We use daily data for a panel of 34 countries to investigate regional differences in sovereign credit default swaps (CDS) spread determinants and the significance of local versus global market factors. Similar to prior studies, we find a high level of commonality among CDS spreads, but our results show that this effect is stronger in Latin American CDS. The results of our quantile panel regression model show that although global forces drive spreads across the conditional distribution, changes in credit ratings are significant in explaining CDS spreads only in the upper quantiles. We also confirm the existence of regional differences in spread determinants.     

FAIR RETIREMENT UNDER RISKY LIFETIME*

A premature death unexpectedly brings a life and a career to their end, leading to substantial welfare losses. We study the retirement decision in an economy with risky lifetime and compare the laissez‐faire with egalitarian social optima. We consider two social objectives: (1) the maximin on expected lifetime welfare, allowing for a compensation for unequal life expectancies, and (2) the maximin on realized lifetime welfare, allowing for a compensation for unequal lifetimes. The latter optimum involves, in general, decreasing lifetime consumption profiles as well as raising the retirement age. This result is robust to the introduction of unequal life expectancies and unequal productivities.