The courage to choose! Primogeniture and leadership succession in family firms

Research Summary : Building on a unique data set with information on the nuclear structure of entrepreneurial families, we integrate leadership succession into a socioemotional wealth (SEW) logic to test the antecedents and consequences of primogeniture vis‐à‐vis second‐ or subsequent‐born selection in family firm succession. Our findings suggest that appointing a family firstborn sibling is more likely when there is a high degree of SEW endowment and the family firm has pre‐succession performance below aspiration levels. Next, we find that appointing a second‐ or subsequent‐born sibling has a positive and significant effect on post‐succession firm profitability, particularly when the firm is in its second generation or later. Managerial Summary : What drives succession choices in family firms? What are the performance implications of each succession choice? These are questions of vital relevance for every business owner. Focusing on the pool of potential family heirs at the time of succession, our study adds to the debate on the drivers of succession choices by suggesting that having a family intensive governance structure fosters primogeniture as the main succession logic, even when the family firm is experiencing lower profitability. Our study informs business owners on the implications of different succession policies, suggesting that family firms that have the courage to disregard primogeniture and choose more wisely the family successor are also the ones experiencing higher post‐succession performance.     

Cognitive abilities and portfolio choice

We study the relation between cognitive abilities and stockholding using the recent Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE), which has detailed data on wealth and portfolio composition of individuals aged 50+ in 11 European countries and three indicators of cognitive abilities: mathematical, verbal fluency, and recall skills. We find that the propensity to invest in stocks is strongly associated with cognitive abilities, for both direct stock market participation and indirect participation through mutual funds and retirement accounts. Since the decision to invest in less information-intensive assets (such as bonds) is less strongly related to cognitive abilities, we conclude that the association between cognitive abilities and stockholding is driven by information constraints, rather than by features of preferences or psychological traits.     

Innovation and the Economy

Unemployment has remained at relatively high levels across most European countries for a generation now. There have been a number of suggested explanations for this, with correspondingly different policy implications. Two of the major hypotheses relate, first, to the impact on the European economies from increased international competition, and 'globalisation' more generally, and, secondly, to the effects of new technology and innovation. The effects of both globalisation and technology on growth and employment in Europe have been researched over the past two years through an EU-funded project, the results of which, relating in particular to innovation, are reported in this Special Issue of the International Review of Applied Economics. (The results relating to globalisation were reported in a Special Issue of the Journal of Interdisciplinary Economics , Volume 13.) It is clear from the empirical work reported that the effects of technological innovation have been mixed. There is no doubt that some innovation has had a negative effect on employment, without the compensatingly positive effects that new technology usually brings in its wake. However, in high technology manufacturing sectors there is scope for boosting both productivity and employment. But this requires an appropriate policy environment, conducive to increased investment in capital, R&D and the workforce itself.     

Retirement expectations, pension reforms, and their impact on private wealth accumulation

We estimate the effect of pension reforms on households' expectations of retirement outcomes and private wealth accumulation decisions exploiting a decade of intense Italian pension reforms as a source of exogenous variation in expected pension wealth. The Survey of Household Income and Wealth, a large random sample of the Italian population, elicits expectations of the age at which workers expect to retire and of the ratio of pension benefits to pre-retirement income between 1989 and 2002. We find that workers have revised expectations in the direction suggested by the reform and that there is substantial offset between private wealth and perceived pension wealth, particularly by workers that are better informed about their pension wealth.     

The structure of the German economy

Exploiting the information contained in an economy’s input-output matrix and using the novel approach developed by Fisher and Marshall (2011), we calculate Rybczynski effects and Stolper–Samuelson effects for Germany in 2007. We show how sectoral output and factor remuneration react to exogenous changes of factor endowments and product prices, respectively. These calculations are implemented using two different models comprising one with labour and capital as the classical production factors and one where we introduce patent stock as an additional factor of production. In the former, we further differentiate between a scenario where all production factors are mobile and one with sector-specific capital. In the latter analysis, we measure the impact of innovation-targeting policy action for sectoral output. Positive Rybczynski effects of patents and high-skilled workers are strongest in knowledge-intensive sectors, while other sectors contract. The introduction of patents as a further production factor has only minor influence on the Rybczynski effects of other factors.     

Markov decision processes under model uncertainty

We introduce a general framework for Markov decision problems under model uncertainty in a discrete-time infinite horizon setting. By providing a dynamic programming principle, we obtain a local-to-global paradigm, namely solving a local, that is, a one time-step robust optimization problem leads to an optimizer of the global (i.e., infinite time-steps) robust stochastic optimal control problem, as well as to a corresponding worst-case measure. Moreover, we apply this framework to portfolio optimization involving data of the . We present two different types of ambiguity sets; one is fully data-driven given by a Wasserstein-ball around the empirical measure, the second one is described by a parametric set of multivariate normal distributions, where the corresponding uncertainty sets of the parameters are estimated from the data. It turns out that in scenarios where the market is volatile or bearish, the optimal portfolio strategies from the corresponding robust optimization problem outperforms the ones without model uncertainty, showcasing the importance of taking model uncertainty into account.     

Optimal insurance under maxmin expected utility

We examine a problem of demand for insurance indemnification, when the insured is sensitive to ambiguity and behaves according to the maxmin expected utility model of Gilboa and Schmeidler (J. Math. Econ. 18:141–153, 1989), whereas the insurer is a (risk-averse or risk-neutral) expected-utility maximiser. We characterise optimal indemnity functions both with and without the customary ex ante no-sabotage requirement on feasible indemnities, and for both concave and linear utility functions for the two agents. This allows us to provide a unifying framework in which we examine the effects of the no-sabotage condition, of marginal utility of wealth, of belief heterogeneity, as well as of ambiguity (multiplicity of priors) on the structure of optimal indemnity functions. In particular, we show how a singularity in beliefs leads to an optimal indemnity function that involves full insurance on an event to which the insurer assigns zero probability, while the decision maker assigns a positive probability. We examine several illustrative examples, and we provide numerical studies for the case of a Wasserstein and a Rényi ambiguity set.