The Point of Effective Demand

Abstract

Keynes's principle of effective demand conceives competitive equilibrium in terms of the choices of entrepreneurs, investors and consumers, rather than of the optimal allocation of factors of production. In The General Theory, effective demand is distinguished from aggregate demand and from income, expected or realised, and there is no suggestion that equilibrium means the convergence of expectations. Reconsideration of Keynes's use of time and equilibrium periods leads to the conclusion that he treats employment as in continuous equilibrium, at the point of effective demand, determined by the state of expectation, the correctness of which is strictly irrelevant. The nature of the equilibrium represented by the point of effective demand is here described, not in terms of the multiplier, but in terms of the continuous equilibrium of supply and demand in short-term forward markets. This reading is faithful to Keynes's conception of aggregate demand as dependent upon the expectations of entrepreneurs, and it resolves the meaning of his ‘long-period employment.’ Formal appendices identify the differences between Keynes and Walras and the nature of the multiplier. The paper concludes that the Keynesian cross and ‘Swedish’ analysis should be abandoned, and the Walrasian conception recognised as only the limiting case of general competitive equilibrium in a monetary economy.     

A Post-Keynesian Model of the Palestinian Economy: The Economics of an Investment-Constrained Economy

The 60-year-old Israeli-Palestinian conflict has deeply influenced the evolution of the Palestinian economy. In the last two decades political instability and the Israeli closure policy have generated protracted economic stagnation and poor capital formation. The paper describes the consequences on the Palestinian economy of existing high transaction costs and market fragmentation. We propose a simple one-sector Post-Keynesian model that describes Palestine as a demand-driven economy. We show that high transaction costs and market fragmentation discourage investment by curtailing expected profitability, reducing the size of the market and depressing entrepreneurs' animal spirits. In the short run, these two factors induce low levels of capacity utilization and low rates of capital accumulation. The situation is even more worrying in the long run when entrepreneurs can revise their expectations. Depressed animal spirits and low levels of capacity use give rise to a low-growth trap from which Palestine can hardly escape. We also highlight the possible positive impact of the removal of high transaction costs and of market fragmentation, and the ensuing beneficial effects on the long-run equilibrium values of capital accumulation and capacity use. The conclusions place these analytical results into the historical situation of the Palestinian economy, and consider what is needed, politically and economically, in order to establish a sustained development process.

The division of labour is limited by the extent of the market. (Adam Smith, Wealth of Nations, Book I, chapter III)     

Comments on “Consumption Values of Trade Unions”

The credit default swap (CDS) is implicated in the global financial crises because a vast market for securities collateralized by subprime mortgages and consumer debt could not have materialized if hedge funds and other holders of these instruments lacked a means of hedging default "risk." The argument is made that the CDS is an inherently defective concept because it is based on the assumption that future states of the economy are subject to probabilistic risk as opposed to uncertainty in the Keynes-Knight-Shackle-Davidson sense. The CDS also manifests the paradox of derivatives. By enabling individual money managers to safely increase leverage, it causes a system-wide buildup of leverage and financial fragility.     

Directional heterogeneity of environmental disamenities: the impact of crematory operations on adjacent residential values

A hedonic study of residential house sales in Rawlins, Wyoming, was conducted to estimate the impact of an environmental shock from a new point source upon adjacent residential property values. We use a unique data base of house sale prices and associated house attributes, including structural and neighbourhood characteristics and geographic distances and directions from the source of the shock, atmospheric emissions from a new crematory. Our data spans 27 months of house sales: 7 months before, and 20 months after the startup of crematory operations. Results indicate that proximity, measured both in terms of direction and distance from the crematory, imparts a statistically significant negative impact on average house sale prices–an increase of 0.3 to 3.6% of average sale price for every one-tenth mile increase up to one-half mile in distance away from the crematory, but depending on direction from the crematory. This distance benefit increases somewhat with calendar time only for houses located west of the crematory.     

Efficiency and its determinants in pharmaceutical industries: ownership,R&D and scale economy

The purpose of this article is to measure the efficiency of pharmaceutical firms and identify their determinants using Korean and American samples from 1992 to 2004. We document some stylized facts in the patterns and sources of efficiency change in Korean and American pharmaceutical firms. The evidence shows that ownership structure can substantially influence the efficiency of pharmaceutical firms. Especially, institutional ownership rate affects corporate efficiencies negatively, corroborating the myopic institutional investor hypothesis. The hypothesis is supported by both Korean and American samples. However, we find evidence that foreign ownership in Korea promotes efficiency of pharmaceutical firms. It is shown that R&D intensity is positively related to contemporaneous largest ownership rate and prior foreign ownership rate in Korean pharmaceutical firms. In contrast, little evidence is found on the relationship between ownership structure and R&D intensity in the American pharmaceutical industry. These empirical results are robust even after we check the causal links among efficiency, R&D and ownership.     

Is Asia Decoupling from the United States (Again)?

The recovery from the recent global financial crisis exhibited a decline in the synchronization of Asian output with the rest of the world. However, a simple model based on output gaps demonstrates that the decline in business cycle synchronization during the recovery from the global financial crisis was exceptionally steep by historical standards. We posit two potential reasons for this exceptionally steep decline. First, financial markets during this recovery improved from particularly distressed conditions relative to previous downturns. Second, monetary policy during the recovery from the crisis was constrained in developed economies by the zero bound, but less so in Asia. To test these potential explanations, we examine the implications of an increase in corporate bond spreads similar to that which took place during the recent European financial crisis in a three‐region open‐economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. Our results confirm that global business cycle synchronization is reduced when zero‐bound constraints across the world differ. However, we find that the impact of reduced financial contagion actually goes modestly against our predictions.     

The Political Economy of State Government Subsidy Adoption: The Case of Ethanol

In this study, we examine the factors that determine the adoption of state economic development incentives in the ethanol industry. We compile data on the implementation dates for subsidies/tax credits for all states for the years 1984–2007, a period that covers the complete emergence of the biofuel industry in the United States and that was characterized by the passage of numerous state‐level subsidies and tax breaks aimed at increasing ethanol production. Using Cox proportional hazard regression analysis, we find that states are more likely to adopt ethanol subsidies when corn production is high, when corn prices are low and gasoline prices are high, when a state is affiliated with the National Corn Growers Association, when a check‐off is present, when a state has a high environmental score, and when state government is under the control of Democrats.     

The NBA and the influx of international basketball players

The determinants of salaries for professional athletes in the National Basketball Association (NBA) are examined to investigate how international athletes have fared relative to athletes trained in the United States. It is found that international basketball players were paid a large premium above other players of similar skills and characteristics for the 1996–97 and 1997–98 seasons, after which the premium disappeared. This temporary premium is likely attributable to a?‘winner's curse’?experienced by NBA teams before investing significant resources in scouting and evaluating international players.     

Occupational Change and Mobility Among Employed and Unemployed Job Seekers

We use data from the Labour Force Survey to show that employed and unemployed job seekers in Great Britain originate from different occupations and find jobs in different occupations. We find substantial differences in occupational mobility between job seekers: employed job seekers are most likely to move to occupations paying higher average wages relative to their previous occupation, while unemployed job seekers are most likely to move to lower paying occupations. Employed and unemployed job seekers exhibit different patterns of occupational mobility and, therefore, do not accept the same types of jobs.