An econometric framework for testing the eclectic paradigm of international firm activities

In empirical research on direct investments, Dunning's eclectic paradigm is widely accepted. While this paradigm serves as a theoretical basis for selecting possible explanatory variables, econometric specification usually is ad hoc. This paper shows the implications of the eclectic paradigm for the econometric estimation of investment determinants using firm-level data. The assumptions on the eclectic paradigm lead to a multiplicative model, which calls for a particular estimation strategy. In this way, the empirical analysis is coherently linked to the theoretical base. Furthermore, it becomes possible to systematically test the assumptions of the eclectic paradigm.     

A simple model of credit contagion

We propose a simple model of credit contagion in which we include macro- and microstructural interdependencies among the debtors within a credit portfolio. The microstructure captures interdependencies between debtors that go beyond their exposure to common factors, e.g., business or legal interdependencies. We show that even for diversified portfolios, moderate microstructural interdependencies have a significant impact on the tails of the loss distribution. This impact increases dramatically for less diversified microstructures.     

Stochastic stability for roommate markets

We show that for any roommate market the set of stochastically stable matchings coincides with the set of absorbing matchings. This implies that whenever the core is non-empty (e.g., for marriage markets), a matching is in the core if and only if it is stochastically stable, i.e., stochastic stability is a characteristic of the core. Several solution concepts have been proposed to extend the core to all roommate markets (including those with an empty core). An important implication of our results is that the set of absorbing matchings is the only solution concept that is core consistent and shares the stochastic stability characteristic with the core.     

Überschreitet die EZB mit ihren Staatsanleihekäufen ihr Mandat?

The ECB’s government bond purchases have become an issue for the German constitutional court. The authors see the OMT programme as falling within the bounds of its mandate but call for the ECB’s crisis policies to be strictly temporary. They argue that the OMT programme was necessary to safeguard fi nancial stability and that it does not endanger price stability in the short term. Moreover, they present evidence for the breakdown of the monetary policy transmission mechanism in the crisis countries and argue that the conditions for forbidden monetary government fi nancing are not met — provided the ECB sticks to certain conditions. Particularly, the ECB’s government bond purchases must maintain a clear distinction between the primary market and a functioning secondary market.     

Portfolio diversification: the influence of herding,status-quo bias,and the gambler’s fallacy

This experimental study examines the influence of herding [following the majority of fellow gamblers or the most successful gambler (guru)], status-quo bias, and the gambler’s fallacy on diversification behavior. We find that neither herding nor status-quo bias contributes significantly to non-optimal portfolio choices. The gambler’s fallacy, however, plays an important role in these decisions. Many subjects appear to find patterns in a history of random events and then use these “patterns” to infer the sequence of future events. The gambler’s fallacy is significantly responsible for the fact that the optimal structure of a portfolio is considered in only 37.7% of all choices made by an investor.     

Exploring the effects of leaders’ individualized consideration in extreme contexts

Abstract

Role clarity and trust in leadership are two crucial factors supporting soldiers in coping with uncertainty and imperfect knowledge. The present study examined the effects of leaders’ individualized consideration on both factors in a sample composed of 161 paratroopers from a parachute division of the NATO Airborne Forces. Conditional process modeling revealed that (1) leaders showing individualized consideration increase followers’ role clarity and, in parallel, develop a trusting relationship with them; (2) critical upward communication and perceived workload mediated and moderated these relationships, respectively. The implications of these findings for safety research and their practical applications are outlined.