What Drives Clarity of Central Bank Communication About Inflation?

This paper examines whether the clarity of central bank communication about inflation varies with the economic environment. Using readability statistics and content analysis, we study the clarity of communication on the inflation outlook by seven central banks across three continents during the recent decade. We uncover significant and persistent differences in clarity over time and across countries. However, identifying determinants of clarity that are robustly relevant across our sample of central banks proves elusive. Overall, our findings suggest that a single model for clarity of central bank communication is not appropriate. Rather, when studying clarity of communication, country-specific and institution-specific factors are highly relevant.     

Organization and economic behavior: An interpretation of recent findings

Conclusion Institutionalist theorists have long suggested that market power creates managerial discretion to diverge from competitive norms — for good or for bad [Spechler, 1978]. Where differences appear among them on how to conceptualize the objective, Baumol [1967] and Eichner [1976] have argued for growth maximization (subject to a minimum profit constraint), while Galbraith [1973] and the Carnegie “school” [see Cyert, March, 1963] have preferred an indeterminate combination of security, growth, prestige, and so forth.     

Industrialisation in a small grain economy during the First Globalisation: Bulgaria c. 1870–1910

In Bulgaria the share of secondary production in GDP remained constantly low between c. 1870–1910. To explain the country's exceptionally weak growth, we use endogenous and unified growth theory. Gerschenkron and Palairet blame a self-sufficiency-oriented peasant economy for rising labour and raw material costs in industry, which destroyed the competitiveness of Bulgarian manufacturing and prevented industrialisation. We refute the existence of any long-lasting cost increases in industry after 1878. Quite the opposite was true: the expansion of Bulgaria's secondary sector was restricted by detrimental changes on the demand side, for which peasants were not responsible. Recent research claims that, around 1910, Bulgarian textile production was significantly lower than in 1870. Our study brings to light new data and information that clearly disproves this view. Until around 1910, a booming modern manufacturing sector more than replaced the country's proto-industries’ textile outputs, which had plummeted dramatically during the early years of the newly founded Bulgarian state. However, as the rise of modern manufacturing in textile production coincided with the decline of the entire large sector of traditional manufacturing, secondary production as a whole stagnated.     

Efficiency in the international insurance industry: A cross-country comparison

The purpose of this paper is to provide new empirical evidence on frontier efficiency measurement in the international insurance industry, a topic of great interest in the academic literature during the last several years. A broad efficiency comparison of 6462 insurers from 36 countries is conducted. Different methodologies, countries, organizational forms, and company sizes are compared, considering life and non-life insurers. We find a steady technical and cost efficiency growth in international insurance markets from 2002 to 2006, with large differences across countries. Denmark and Japan have the highest average efficiency, whereas the Philippines is the least efficient. Regarding organizational form, the results are not consistent with the expense preference hypothesis, which claims that mutuals should be less efficient than stocks due to higher agency costs. Only minor variations are found when comparing different frontier efficiency methodologies (data envelopment analysis, stochastic frontier analysis).     

Recent Research Developments Affecting Nonlife Insurance—The CAS Risk Premium Project 2014 Update

This article discusses the main results of the Casualty Actuarial Society Risk Premium Project 2014 update. It reviews the recent research developments in the process of nonlife risk assessment. Of special note, systemic risk continuously attracts a great deal of attention. In the past year, reinsurance studies have increased significantly, driven by progress in optimal reinsurance design and reinsurance asymmetric information. Both topics show the academic reflection of financial crisis in the field of risk and insurance. The evaluation of reserves and the methods mitigating asymmetric information have also received a great deal of attention.     

The Mystery of the Vanishing Benefits: An Introduction to Impact Evaluation

This article provides an introduction to the concepts and methodsof impact evaluation. The author provides an intuitive explanationin the context of a concrete application. The article takesthe form of a short story about a fictional character's on-the-jobtraining in evaluation. Ms. Speedy Analyst is an economist inthe Ministry of Finance in the fictional country of Labas. Inthe process of figuring out how to evaluate a human resourceprogram targeted to the poor, Ms. Analyst learns the strengthsand weaknesses of the main methods of ex post impact evaluation.     

<Emphasis Type="Italic">GTE Sylvania</Emphasis> and Interbrand Competition as the Primary Concern of Antitrust Law

Footnote 19 of the landmark U.S. antitrust decision in Continental T.V. v. GTE Sylvania, Inc. 433 U.S. 36 (1977) declares that “Interbrand competition … is the primary concern of antitrust law.” We trace the antecedents and influence of this declaration, argue that it is inappropriate, and conclude that it should be abandoned.